Omar Serna, C, Lutheran South Academy, Houston

HS Rank: 50
Commit: LSU

There’s something about Texas high school catchers. Serna follows in the footsteps of both Blake Mitchell and Cade Arrambide as a Texas-based LSU commit who, at this point in the calendar, stands among the best backstops in the class. Serna blew up the Area Code Games this summer by going 4-for-9 (.444) with two home runs, a triple and a double at Blair Field ballpark that has typically been difficult for high school hitters to show power. That’s not the case for Serna, who has tons of strength in his hulking, 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame and a power-over-hit offensive profile. In addition to his huge power potential, Serna has double-plus arm strength that will be an asset for him at catcher if he can maintain his actions and develop his blocking and receiving. 

Gavin Fien, CIF, Great Oak HS, Temecula, Calif.

HS Rank: Not ranked
Commit: Texas

Fien helped power USA Baseball’s 18U national team to a gold medal in this year’s WBSC America’s qualifier in Panama, leading the team in total bases (17) and OPS (1.109) as the starting first baseman and three-hole hitter. Fien has a tall, strong frame at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds and has experience at third base, the outfield and first base. In 13 logged games this summer, Fien hit .471/.537/.882 with two homers, eight doubles and more walks (six) than strikeouts (four). He showed an advanced approach and power to the pull side with a righthanded swing that is simple and explosive. Though he played first base for Team USA, his huge arm strength would fit nicely at third or right field. 

Brady Ebel, CIF, Corona (Calif.) HS

HS Rank: 4
Commit: LSU

If you’re not familiar with Corona (Calif.) High, you will be after scanning through the rest of this list. Ebel is one of three prospects from the school who makes this summer all-star team, and the trio will make the program one of the most prospect-heavy high school teams in recent memory this spring. A 6-foot-3, 190-pound infielder and lefthanded hitter, Ebel is one of the most well-rounded offensive players in the class, hitting .417/.533/.500 with more walks (three) than strikeouts (two) at this year’s Area Code Games. He has a keen eye and rarely expands the zone with a clean lefthanded swing that should allow him to hit for both average and power. Ebel is a below-average runner and might fit best at third base, where he has the actions and arm strength to profile nicely. He’s the son of Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel and will be 17 years old on draft day. 

Kayson Cunningham, MIF, Johnson HS, San Antonio

HS Rank: 10
Commit: Texas

Cunningham is a 5-foot-10, 178-pound lefthanded hitting shortstop with some of the best pure bat-to-ball skills in the class. He earned the starting shortstop job for Team USA this summer, then was named the MVP of the WBSC America’s Qualifier while leading the club to a gold medal with 10 hits and 12 RBIs and slashing .417/.483/.542. Cunningham has less physicality than other players in the class, but his hands in the box are snappy and direct to the ball with a level, functional swing that allows him to spray line drives over the entire field and minimize strikeouts. He’s also a plus runner and strong athlete who should have the actions to stick in the middle of the infield and be a good defender at either shortstop or second base.

Billy Carlson, MIF, Corona (Calif.) HS

HS Rank: 5
Commit: Vanderbilt

Another member of the Corona High trio, Carlson stands out as one of the most impressive two-way players in this year’s class. He’s an advanced defensive shortstop who boasts clean actions and one of the strongest infield throwing arms of the class. On the mound this summer, he has sat around 94 mph and touched 97. In 31 logged games from 2024, Carlson has hit .309/.473/.529 with as many walks (17) as strikeouts (17), and scouts were just as excited about his pure stuff on the mound at the Area Code Games this summer when he pitched 93-96 mph and showed a tight-spinning curveball in the upper 70s.

Dean Moss, OF, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla.

HS Rank: 8
Commit: LSU

Moss has an exciting combination of bat speed and strike zone discipline. A 6-foot, 182-pound outfielder and lefthanded hitter, Moss posted a .333/.520/.639 slash line with 13 walks and just six strikeouts in 17 Synergy-logged games between PG National, USA Baseball’s 18U training camp, East Coast Pro, Area Code Games and PG’s All-America game. His batting eye appears to be one of the best in the class, and while he’s not the most physical hitter of the group, his hand speed should allow him to generate impact and hit for more power as he develops. He is an offensive-oriented hitter who can play center field now but could profile better in a corner at the next level. 

Slater de Brun, OF, Summit HS, Bend, Ore.

HS Rank: 47
Commit: Vanderbilt

De Brun played an occasional left field and hit at the bottom of USA Baseball’s lineup this summer, but he made the most of his limited playing time to be one of just three hitters (along with Gavin Fien and Kayson Cunningham) to finish the tournament with an OPS north of 1.000. A 5-foot-9, 180-pound outfielder and lefthanded hitter, de Brun slashed .408/.597/.776 in 23 Synergy-logged games this summer with 15 walks, 11 hit by pitches and just eight strikeouts. A small but strong hitter, de Brun stays within the zone on his swing decisions and makes tons of contact with a level, direct swing that should lead to more singles and doubles than over-the-fence power. He is a plus runner and should be able to stick in center field thanks to above-average arm strength. 

Brock Sell, OF, Tokay HS, Lodi, Calif.

HS Rank: 16
Commit: Stanford

Sell is a lean, 6-foot-1, 185-pound outfielder and lefthanded hitter who some scouts believed was the best hitter at this year’s Area Code Games. He went 5-for-14 (.357) at the event with a double, walk and four strikeouts, showing a simple, quiet offensive setup and the bat speed that could allow him to become an above-average pure hitter. His most impressive at-bat of the event came against Seth Hernandez, the top prep arm in the class, when he got into a 2-2 count and then flicked a 98-mph fastball on the outer third on a line to the opposite field for a sharp single. It’s a contact-over-power offensive profile at the moment, but Sell has a projectable frame that should allow him to add more strength and pop in the future. He’s a plus runner who accelerates quickly and should have the speed and defensive instincts to stick in center field and be an asset there, though some background as an infielder could add some defensive versatility to his game.

Seth Hernandez, TWP, Corona (Calif.) HS

HS Rank: 2
Commit: Vanderbilt

Hernandez has been the established top pitcher in the 2025 class for a long time now, but scouts were genuinely excited about his talents as a hitter this summer, as well. He has legitimate bat speed and raw power as a righthanded hitter—at PGN he managed a 101-mph exit velocity and had the ninth-best max barrel speed recorded among 181 players—but his upside is still greater on the mound, where he is already drawing Dylan Lesko comparisons. As a pitcher, Hernandez sits in the mid 90s and has been up to 100 mph with an outlier changeup that features 12 mph+ separation from his fastball and features tremendous movement and deception. While the change is his best secondary and a driver of the Lesko comps, he can also spin the baseball well, throwing both a two-plane curveball and harder slider that give him more pure stuff. He struck out five of the eight batters he faced at the Area Code Games this summer and generated five whiffs with the cambio. 

Landon Harmon, P, East Union HS, Blue Springs, Miss.

HS Rank: 18
Commit: Mississippi State

Harmon has an elite pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-5, 185 pounds and was arguably the single most impressive prospect at this year’s East Coast Pro. He pitched in multiple outings, touched 98 mph both times, sat in the 93-96 mph range and flashed two breaking ball variants to go with a solid mid-80s changeup. The ease with which Harmon generates his velocity is a separator—it looks like his playing catch while touching 97-98 mph—and his delivery, balance, athleticism and clean arm action portend above-average control in the future. At the moment, he’s a fastball-dominant pitcher and will need to sharpen each of his secondaries. He has a chance to grow into plenty more strength and power with his highly projectable frame. 

Kruz Schoolcraft, P, Sunset HS, Portland, Ore.

HS Rank: 7
Commit: Uncommitted

Schoolcraft is the top-ranked uncommitted player in the class. A standout on the mound at the Area Code Games, he is a legitimate two-way player. His 6-foot-8, 220-pound frame and lefthanded throwing ability is an excellent starting point, but Schoolcraft also averaged 94-mph in his brief outing, touched 96 and struck out four of the seven batters he faced. Maintaining his delivery and release point will be keys for him moving forward given his colossal frame, but he filled up the zone with the fastball nicely at the Area Code Games and also showed solid feel to land a low-80s changeup. He also throws a low-80s slider. As a hitter, Schoolcraft has massive power potential at first base, but his upside potential as a lefty on the mound might be too much for teams to pass up. 

Ethan Grim, P, Governor Mifflin HS, Shillington, Pa.

HS Rank: Not ranked
Commit: Virginia Tech

Grim doesn’t have the sort of top-end pure stuff of other pitchers on this list, but it’ll be hard to match his summer performance given how dominant he was at both the East Coast Pro and Area Code Games. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound righthander struck out 11 of the 19 batters he faced across two games and six innings of work, while allowing just one hit (a single) and not walking a batter. He pitches in the 90-94 mph range with his fastball but attacks the zone effectively with the pitch and threw it for strikes more than 70% of the time in this sample. Grim also has a slider, curveball and changeup that need to be sharpened up, but his competitiveness and command on the mound were impressive against the best hitters in the class. 

Brett Crossland, P, Mountain Pointe HS, Phoenix

HS Rank: 29
Commit: Texas

Crossland is a big, physical righthander with power stuff to go along with his extra-large, 6-foot-5, 241-pound frame. This summer, he has sat 93-94 mph with a fastball that has been up to 97 and is used to dominate the top of the zone and generate whiffs. His go-to breaking ball is a hard, tight slider in the mid 80s that looks like a plus pitch now with late action and two-plane biting shape. Crossland will also mix in a downer curveball in the mid-70s and changeup in the mid-80s. He struck out three of the four batters he faced at Perfect Game’s All-America game, but his inconsistent command showed up at the Area Code Games, where he walked four of the 10 batters he faced.

Coleman Borthwick, P, South Walton HS, Santa Rosa Beach, Fla.

HS Rank: 19 (2006)
Commit: Auburn

Borthwick looks the part as one of the top pitchers in the 2025 class thanks to an extra-large, 6-foot-6, 245-pound frame and a loud three-pitch mix. Scouts will have to wait a year to bear down on him fully, however, as he’s a member of the 2026 class. He filled up the zone at this year’s East Coast Pro, where he struck out six of the 12 batters he faced, walked one and averaged 92-93 mph with a fastball that touched 95. His low-80s slider, a three-quarter break with solid movement, looked like his best secondary at the ECP, but he also flashed a nice changeup that he throws with fastball arm speed to round out the repertoire. He’s already ranked highly in next year’s class but should have an up arrow next to his name given his performance this summer. 

Honorable Mentions

• MIF: JoJo Parker, Daniel Pierce, Eli Willits, Sean Gamble, Tate Southisene
• CIF: Xavier Neyens, Jason Fultz, Sebastian Norman, Evan Hankins
• OF: Jordan Serrano, William Patrick
• P: Noah Yoder, Nico Partida, Justice De Jong, Aaron Watson

Team	$ Towards Pool	Bonus Pool	Overage %	Overage $
PIT	$14,700,525	$14,000,500	105.0%	+700,025
HOU	$6,210,412	$5,914,700	105.0%	+295,712
BAL	$11,466,800	$10,920,900	105.0%	+545,900
ATL	$8,153,100	$7,765,000	105.0%	+388,100
CHI	$10,291,900	$9,802,300	105.0%	+489,600
LAA	$12,640,500	$12,041,800	105.0%	+598,700
SF	$7,942,350	$7,566,200	105.0%	+376,150
NYY	$8,538,190	$8,134,500	105.0%	+403,690
DET	$12,512,500	$11,921,800	105.0%	+590,700
BOS	$11,040,000	$10,521,600	104.9%	+518,400
OAK	$16,103,900	$15,347,900	104.9%	+756,000
CLE	$19,236,100	$18,334,000	104.9%	+902,100
PHI	$7,744,900	$7,381,800	104.9%	+363,100
WSH	$14,575,200	$13,895,100	104.9%	+680,100
CIN	$16,615,800	$15,842,100	104.9%	+773,700
SD	$9,814,600	$9,360,500	104.9%	+454,100
LAD	$6,411,300	$6,114,700	104.9%	+296,600
TEX	$7,327,600	$6,997,900	104.7%	+329,700
CWS	$15,267,500	$14,593,300	104.6%	+674,200
TOR	$9,376,050	$8,987,000	104.3%	+389,050
NYM	$9,768,000	$9,375,500	104.2%	+392,500
STL	$10,599,100	$10,213,000	103.8%	+386,100
KC	$13,394,600	$13,023,300	102.9%	+371,300
ARI	$12,662,000	$12,662,000	100.0%	–
MIL	$11,757,400	$11,757,600	100.0%	-200
MIN	$12,201,650	$12,209,600	99.9%	-7,950
MIA	$10,425,000	$10,438,500	99.9%	-13,500
COL	$17,156,100	$17,243,400	99.5%	-87,300
SEA	$9,494,900	$9,543,300	99.5%	-48,400
TB	$8,582,600	$8,832,900	97.2%	-250,300

When rounding to the nearest tenth there were nine teams who went to the full 5% overage, which is the max you can go over your bonus pool before incurring future draft pick penalties. In the 13 years of the bonus pool era, no team has been willing to go beyond that 5% overage. 

Twenty-three teams went over their bonus pool allotment in some capacity, while one team (the D-backs) spent their exact bonus pool. Six teams did not go over, including the Rockies and Twins, who remain the only teams in the league who have never spent more than their available bonus pool.

These numbers are extremely similar to a year ago, and five of the six teams who didn’t spend their entire bonus pool still spent at least 99.5% of their pool. In the 2023 draft, three teams spent less than 99.5% of their total bonus pool. This year only the Rays fell below that mark and left $250,000 on the table of their final bonus pool after not signing, though that doesn’t include the bonus pool value they lost for not signing 66th overall pick Tyler Bell.

There were four teams who failed to sign players selected among the first ten rounds this year, which was the the most since the 2018 draft featured three first rounders who didn’t sign. Those teams include the Rays (Bell, 66th), Brewers (Chris Levonas, 67th), Angels (Ryan Prager, 81st) and Mets (Jaxon Jelkin, 263rd).

When a team fails to sign a player inside the top 10 rounds, they also lose the bonus pool money associated with that pick. Below you can see how each team’s bonus pool was impacted:

team	original pool	final pool	money lost
TB	$10,093,100	$8,832,900	$1,260,200
MIL	$12,984,400	$11,757,600	$1,226,800
LAA	$12,990,400	$12,041,800	$948,600
NYM	$9,572,200	$9,375,500	$196,700

For each of these teams, a lost pick is unfortunate, though not nearly to the degree of the Kumar Rocker non-signing for the Mets from the 2021 draft. That year, the Mets went significantly under slot in order to sign Rocker with their first pick, and after he didn’t sign, there was no backup player for the team to push their created “savings” towards. That led them to not using nearly $1.3 million in bonus pool space.

The Brewers pushed significant money to a handful players on the third day of the draft (Joey Broughton, Travis Smith, Jayden Dubanewicz and Tyler Renz) to essentially match the $1.9 million the team saved inside the first 10 rounds. Jelkin was simply a lower-profile miss for the Mets in the ninth round, while the Angels still managed to sign 11th rounder Trey Gregory-Alford for nearly $2 million because the Prager pick was never intended to create savings for it in the first place.

The Rays certainly come away as the biggest “losers” here because they created more than $500,000 in savings inside the first 10 rounds but then only spent just over half of that with deals towards the bonus pool in rounds 11-20. That meant they left about $250,000 on the table, which is the slot value for a mid-to-late seventh round selection. 

The Rays, Brewers and Angels will each receive compensation picks in the 2025 draft for not signing players inside the first three rounds.

The First Round

The expectation for this year’s first round was that there would be plenty of underslot deals. That was, indeed, the case, as 16 of the first 30 picks signed for less than slot value. Four players signed for exactly slot value and just a third of the first rounders (10 players) signed for overslot deals.

Pick	Team	Player	Level	Slot value	Bonus	Over/Under
1	CLE	Travis Bazzana	4YR	$10,570,600	$8,950,000	-1,620,600
2	CIN	Chase Burns	4YR	$9,785,000	$9,250,000	-535,000
3	COL	Charlie Condon	4YR	$9,070,800	$9,250,000	179,200
4	OAK	Nick Kurtz	4YR	$8,370,800	$7,000,000	-1,370,800
5	CWS	Hagen Smith	4YR	$7,763,700	$8,000,000	236,300
6	KC	Jac Caglianone	4YR	$7,213,800	$7,497,500	283,700
7	STL	JJ Wetherholt	4YR	$6,823,700	$6,900,000	76,300
8	LAA	Christian Moore	4YR	$6,502,800	$4,997,500	-1,505,300
9	PIT	Konnor Griffin	HS	$6,216,600	$6,532,025	315,425
10	WSH	Seaver King	4YR	$5,953,800	$5,150,000	-803,800
11	DET	Bryce Rainer	HS	$5,712,100	$5,797,500	85,400
12	BOS	Braden Montgomery	4YR	$5,484,600	$5,000,000	-484,600
13	SF	James Tibbs	4YR	$5,272,300	$4,747,500	-524,800
14	CHI	Cam Smith	4YR	$5,070,700	$5,070,700	0
15	SEA	Jurrangelo Cijntje	4YR	$4,880,900	$4,880,900	0
16	MIA	PJ Morlando	HS	$4,704,700	$3,400,000	-1,304,700
17	MIL	Braylon Payne	HS	$4,534,100	$3,440,000	-1,094,100
18	TB	Theo Gillen	HS	$4,372,900	$4,370,400	-2,500
19	NYM	Carson Benge	4YR	$4,219,200	$3,997,500	-221,700
20	TOR	Trey Yesavage	4YR	$4,073,400	$4,175,000	101,600
21	MIN	Kaelen Culpepper	4YR	$3,934,400	$3,934,400	0
22	BAL	Vance Honeycutt	4YR	$3,802,200	$4,000,000	197,800
23	LAD	Kellon Lindsey	HS	$3,676,400	$3,297,500	-378,900
24	ATL	Cam Caminiti	HS	$3,556,300	$3,553,800	-2,500
25	SD	Kash Mayfield	HS	$3,442,100	$3,442,100	0
26	NYY	Ben Hess	4YR	$3,332,900	$2,747,500	-585,400
27	PHI	Dante Nori	HS	$3,228,300	$2,497,500	-730,800
28	HOU	Walker Janek	4YR	3,132,500	$3,130,000	-2,500
29	ARI	Slade Caldwell	HS	$3,045,500	$3,087,000	41,500
30	TEX	Malcolm Moore	4YR	$2,971,300	$3,000,000	28,700

Teams spent $151,096,325 on first round picks this year, which accounts for 40.4% of the total signing bonus dollars ($374,345,077) teams handed out to drafted players this year. 

Five players signed for more than $1 million below slot value: 

• (1.1) Travis Bazzana, $1.6 million
• (1.8) Christian Moore, $1.5 million
• (1.4) Nick Kurtz, $1.4 million
• (1.16) PJ Morlando, $1.3 million
• (1.17) Braylon Payne, $1.1 million

Shortstop and ninth overall pick Konnor Griffin secured the most over-slot money among first rounders this year, adding $315,425 to his $6.2 million slot value at the back of the top 10. Collegians Jac Caglianone and Hagen Smith each added more than $200,000 to their slot values.

In total, teams secured $9.6 million in savings towards the bonus pool with their first overall picks, which is neck-in-neck with the $9.7 million savings total from first rounders in the 2023 draft.

Draft Strategies

Save Early, Spend Later

• Angels: The Angels seemed to use a similar strategy to a year ago with an emphasis on fast-moving collegians up top. They saved big on Christian Moore with a $1.5 million underslot deal with their first pick, then added nearly half a million more in savings with second-rounder Christopher Cortez. The Angels pushed that money towards Ryan Johnson ($687K over) in the second supplemental round and used a bit more than $1.8 million towards the pool to sign 11th rounder Trey Gregory-Alford.
• A’s: Oakland had one of the most aggressive “save early, spend later” drafts this year, putting most of their $1.3 million savings with No. 4 overall pick Nick Kurtz towards their next four picks, including second-rounder Tommy White ($668K over), supplemental second-rounder Gage Jump ($923K over), third-rounder Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (slot) and fourth-rounder Rodney Green ($297K over).
• Braves: The Braves saved only marginally with each of their first four selections for a combined $121,100, but they still went under slot early and handed out big bonuses to their fifth and sixth rounders, Nicholas Montgomery ($594K over) and Ethan Bagwell ($510K over), respectively. To afford those bonuses, the Braves were one of the most aggressive teams at signing huge underslot deals with college seniors in rounds 7-10.
• D-backs: The D-backs actually went slightly overslot for Slade Caldwell ($42K over) in the first round, but signed Ryan Waldschmidt for slot value with their second pick and then created big savings with JD Dix ($483K under), Ivan Luciano ($329K under) and Daniel Eagen ($68K under) with their 3rd-5th picks. In total, they saved about $840K with their first five picks and pushed that money towards fourth-rounder Tytus Cissell ($264K over) and fifth-rounder Connor Foley ($608K over).
• Mets: The Mets didn’t create massive savings with their first few picks, but still saved on first-rounder Carson Benge ($222K under) and third-rounder Nate Dohm ($137K under) before handing out a significant over-slot deal for fifth-rounder Trey Snyder ($846K over).
• Nationals: The Nationals had the opposite strategy a year ago, but saved big this time around with first-rounder Seaver King ($804K under) and then marginally with supplemental first-rounder Caleb Lomavita ($70K under). Most of the savings created there went on a huge overslot deal for second-rounder Luke Dickerson ($1.68M over). His deal was the second-largest overslot deal handed out in the 2024 draft class, behind only Angels 11th rounder Trey Gregory-Alford.
• Guardians: We took a shot at breaking down Cleveland’s expected draft strategy ahead of time, and it largely panned out as expected for the Guardians. They signed the No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana to the largest under-slot deal of the entire draft ($1.62M under), then aggressively targeted prep arms for big overslot deals, including third-rounder Joey Oakie ($1.1M over), seventh-rounder Cameron Sullivan ($246K over) and 10th rounder Chase Mobley ($1.62M over) while also going close to the full 5% overage.
• Red Sox: The Red Sox had a consensus top-10 player slip to them in Braden Montgomery with the 12th overall pick but still managed to sign him to a $485K under slot deal. The team went $154K over slot for Payton Tolle in the second but then saved with each of their next five picks ($443K in total) and pushed a significant over slot deal to eighth-rounder Conrad Cason ($1.03M)

Relatively Straight Up

• Astros: The Astros had the smallest bonus pool to work with in this year’s draft and opted to play things relatively straight. Their largest deals on either side of slot value were overslot deals for third-rounder Ryan Forcucci ($273K over) and sixth-rounder Caden Powell (($115K over). Everything else was within $100K of slot value up and down the board. 
• Cardinals: The Cardinals had to go slightly over slot ($76K) to sign No. 7 overall pick JJ Wetherholt, but we still viewed that as one of the steals of the draft. St. Louis created some savings with third-rounder Brian Holiday ($165K under) but then signed their fourth, fifth and sixth rounders for exactly slot value.
• Cubs: The Cubs went exactly slot value for both first-rounder Cam Smith and second-rounder Cole Mathis, then saved slightly with third-rounder Ronny Cruz ($206K under) and with sub-$100K savings with each of their picks from rounds 5-10 in order to give out overslot deals for fourth-rounder Ty Southisene ($399K over) and 11th rounder Eli Lovich ($500K towards the pool).
• Orioles: The Orioles didn’t have a massive overslot or underslot deal until they gave sixth-rounder DJ Layton nearly $400K above slot value in the middle of the second day of the draft. The team pushed to the full 5% overage and handed out two sizable prep deals on day three with 12th-rounder Brandon Downer ($197.5K towards the pool) and 16th-rounder Nate George ($305K towards the pool).
• Rangers: The Rangers are a bit tougher to clearly identify, I think. They were within $30K of slot value for each of their first four picks, which feels like a “straight up” draft strategy, but then in the fifth round spent $511K over slot to sign Devin Fitz-Gerald. The team subsequently saved $435K with their round 6-10 picks to help pay for that signing and also spent $250K towards the bonus pool with their first two picks on day three. This is on the boundary of “straight up” and “spend early, save later.” I opted for this bucket because a fifth-round overpay doesn’t scream “early” to me. 
• Rays: The Rays signed each of their players in the first 10 rounds to underslot deals, though, aside from fourth-rounder Nate Knowles ($180K under) and 10th rounder Trey Pooser ($108K), they were all within $100K from slot value. The team essentially signed first-rounder Theo Gillen, second-rounder Emilien Pitre, third-rounder Nathan Flewelling and seventh-rounder Ryan Andrade for slot value (though they used the $2,500 signing bonus contingency on each), so bucketing them here seems fair.
• Rockies: The Rockies did go overslot for each of their first two picks, though they weren’t massive overslot deals considering the slot values at picks 3 and 48. The team then handed out six slot value deals from rounds 3-10, which puts them squarely in this strategy bucket for me (though, if you wanted to claim “spend early, save later” I wouldn’t fight you too much on it). The team created savings with second-rounder Jared Thomas ($225K under) and fourth-rounder Blake Wright ($440K under).

Spend Early, Save Later

• White Sox: The White Sox inked first-round pick Hagen Smith to a deal that cost them more than $236K over slot, then went with back-to-back preps with second-rounder Caleb Bonemer ($825K over) and supplemental second-rounder Blake Larson ($200K over). Combined, the White Sox were more than $1.2 million in the hole with their first three picks and made up the savings with third-rounder Nick McLain ($196K under), sixth-rounder Jackson Appel ($253K under), seventh-rounder Phil Fox ($95K under), ninth-rounder Jack Young ($192K under) and 10th-rounder Coel McConnell ($178K under), while also going 4.7% over the bonus pool. 
• Twins: The Twins are a bit of a janky fit here, since they handed out two slot deals (first-rounder Kaelen Culpepper and second-rounder Billy Amick) and an underslot deal (supplemental first-rounder Kyle Debarge) with their first three picks. But they did sign supplemental second-rounder Dasan Hill to a huge overslot deal ($830K over) that they needed to save with each of their next eight picks in order to make work. 
• Padres: Three of the Padres’ first five picks signed for slot deals, but the team had to go heavily over slot for second-rounder Boston Bateman ($738K over) and fifth-rounder Kale Fountain ($1.26M over). In order to pay for those deals, the Padres aggressively targeted college seniors and added more than $1.5 million towards the bonus pool with that demographic across six selections, mostly in rounds 6-10.
• Mariners: The Mariners find themselves back in this “spend” early, save later” bucket once again in 2024. They signed first-rounder Jurrangelo Cijntje for slot value at pick 15 but then gave second-rounder Ryan Sloan the fifth-largest over-slot deal ($1.36M over) in the class. To pay for that, Seattle was one of the most aggressive teams targeting college seniors, including significant underslot deals for third-rounder Hunter Cranton ($763K under) and fifth-rounder Charlie Beilenson ($406K under).
• Pirates: If a team goes heavy on high school players with their first few picks, it’s likely they fall into the “spend early, save later” bucket. The Pirates handed out the largest first-round overslot deal to Konnor Griffin with the ninth overall pick ($315K over), essentially grabbed supplemental first-rounder Levi Sterling for slot and then gave out their largest overslot deal to third-rounder Wyatt Sanford ($513K over). To make room for those picks, the Pirates saved a combined $155K in rounds 3-10 and also pushed to the full 5% overage. You could make a case that Pittsburgh belongs in the “relatively straight up bucket” because none of their picks are clear money-saving options, and they simply opted to spend all they could without incurring pick penalties.
• Royals: This draft is close to being “relatively straight up” given the signing bonus values handed out to each player throughout the class, but it’s also true that the team went over slot for each of their first three picks and under slot for the next seven to get through the first 10 rounds. It was a combined $375.5K over slot for Jac Caglianone, David Shields and Drew Beam and a combined savings of $399.2K for the rest of the top-10 rounders. 
• Tigers: The Tigers went a combined $643K over slot with each of their first three picks with preps Bryce Rainer, Owen Hall and Ethan Schiefelbein (though, Rainer and Schiefelbein signed overslot deals and Hall signed under). The team then saved about $679K towards the pool with their next six picks—all college players—and handed out a big overslot deal to ninth-rounder Zach Swanson ($527K over).

Balance Up Top

• Reds: The Reds saved more than half a million dollars towards the pool with No. 2 overall pick Chase Burns despite the fact that he tied Charlie Condon for the largest bonus ever. The team then went overslot for second-rounder Tyson Lewis ($1.24M) and helped pay for that deal by saving throughout the rest of the first 10 rounds and going nearly to the full 5% overage of the pool.
• Dodgers: The Dodgers packaged a pair of high school players at the top of their draft class, signing first-rounder Kellon Lindsey at pick No. 23 ($379K under) and then following up with third-rounder Chase Harlan at pick No. 98 ($1M over). The team saved a cumulative $327K towards the pool with their six picks from rounds 4-10 and then tapped the pool to a 4.9% overage.
• Marlins: The Marlins replicated their spending strategy from a year ago with a pair of preps, though this time they went for pure hitters instead of upside arms. First-rounder PJ Morlando signed for $1.3 million under slot and then the team doubled back in the second round for Carter Johnson, who signed for $1.2 million over slot. 
• Brewers: The Brewers approximated the savings of the Marlins in the first round by taking Braylon Payne just after PJ Morlando and saving $1.1 million towards the pool on the speedy outfielder. The team then saved nearly $600K in the supplemental first round on Blake Burke and put most of that savings towards an overslot deal for second-rounder Bryce Meccage ($938K over). Presumably, that was also the idea for supplemental second-rounder Chris Levonas, who was one of four players to not sign among the top 10 rounds. 
• Yankees: The Yankees grabbed a pitcher with their first overall pick for the first time since 2017 and balanced their board by signing first-rounder Ben Hess to an underslot deal ($585K under) and second-rounder Bryce Cunningham to an underslot deal ($576K over). The team then used a few senior signings to help save for overslot deals for sixth-rounder Griffin Herring ($458K over) and 11th-rounder Mack Estrada ($490K towards the bonus pool).
• Phillies: The Phillies packaged a pair of toolsy prep outfielders with their first two selections, going with Dante Nori in the first round ($731K under) and Griffin Burkholder in the second ($1.15M over). Burkholder’s deal was such that the Phillies needed to continue creating a bit of savings with most of their subsequent top-10 round picks. Philadelphia was one of the few teams who didn’t exceed $150K for any players in rounds 11-20, though the team maxed out its bonus pool at nearly the full 5% overage. 
• Giants: The Giants had a small bonus pool this year and only one pick inside the first 115 selections, but they created plenty of savings with first-rounder James Tibbs ($525K under). They managed to land a top-40 talent in the class with their 116th overall pick in Dakota Jordan, who required a sizable overslot deal ($1.37M over) that was the fourth-largest such deal in the draft. The team had to continue creating savings with each of their next six picks, but Tibbs’ deal did most of the work in this top-heavy draft class.
• Blue Jays: The Blue Jays signed first-rounder Trey Yesavage for a slightly overslot deal at pick No. 20 ($102K over) and then balanced their next two picks with second-rounder Khal Stephen ($372K under) and third-rounder Johnny King ($480K over). They created around $320K in savings towards the pool with their next eight picks to help make some flexibility for day three and help sign 12th-rounder Carson Messina ($400K towards the pool). 

Most Aggressive With Senior Signs (4+)

The Padres and the Mariners tied for the most senior signs among the first 10 rounds with six apiece, though the tie-breaker that puts the Padres squarely on the pedestal for this category is their $1.55 million in combined underslot savings from those picks. The Mariners checked in at $1.51 million in combined savings.

The Braves and White Sox both selected four senior signs in the first 10 rounds, tied for third among all orgs, and saved $794K and $608K towards the pool, respectively, with those picks. The Brewers can be an honorable mention for this category. They selected just two seniors among the first 10 rounds but combined for $919K in savings towards the pool with those picks. 

Most Aggressive On Day Three ($500K to pool or more)

The Angels spent $2,062,500 towards the pool on day three, which narrowly beat the Brewers for the most in this category, though both teams are in a tier of their own here. The Angels primarily spent that money on 11th-rounder Trey Gregory-Alford, the No. 98 player in the class, but 18th-rounder David Mershon signed for $405,000 and is one of just three players from this draft class already in Double-A. 

The Brewers spent $1,912,500 towards the pool on day three, which is seemingly a function of not signing Chris Levonas and then pushing the savings created for that pick to a number of players who signed on deadline day: 13th-rounder Joey Broughton ($385K towards the pool), 15th-rounder Travis Smith ($312K towards the pool), 16th-rounder Jayden Dubanewicz ($515K towards the pool) and 18th-rounder Tyler Renz ($700K towards the pool).

The Cubs spent $570K towards the pool on day three, while the Orioles spent $502,500, and the Blue Jays spent $500K.

Facts & Figures

As mentioned previously, there were four players who did not sign among the first 10 rounds this year. That means, the signing rate for players among the first 10 rounds in the bonus pool era now stands at 98.7% (3,963 players picked, 50 unsigned).

There were 615 players were selected in this year’s draft. Below is the breakdown of selected players based on school source:

• Four-Year Colleges: 77.07% (474)
• High Schools: 18.70% (115)
• Junior Colleges: 4.26% (26)

Below is the breakdown of players based on sub-categories of school source:

• JR: 44.72% (275) 
• SR: 21.63% (133) 
• HS: 18.37% (113) 
• 5S: 4.39% (27) 
• SO: 4.23% (26) 
• J2: 2.44% (15) 
• GR: 2.11% (13) 
• J1: 1.14% (7) 
• J3: 0.65% (4) 
• NS: 0.33% (2) 

Of the 615 drafted players, 570 signed (92.68%). Of players who signed, here is the breakdown based on school source, with the total numbers of players signed from each source and signing rate of each source in parentheses:

• 4YR: 80.52% (459, 96.84%)
• HS: 15.26% (87, 75.65%)
• JC: 4.21% (24, 92.31%)

Below are the total signing bonus dollars broken down by source:

• 4YR: $250,049,512
• HS: $118,729,225
• JC: $5,566,340

Below are the average signing bonus dollars broken down by source:

• HS: $1,364,704
• 4YR: $544,770
• JC: $231,931

Below are the median signing bonus dollars broken down by source:

• HS: $822,500
• 4YR: $150,000
• JC: $150,000

Below are the total signing bonus dollars broken down into sub-categories of source:

• JR: $209,311,050
• HS: $118,729,225
• SO: $24,615,200
• SR: $14,289,262
• J2: $3,063,500
• J1: $1,587,840
• 5S: $1,456,000
• J3: $915,000
• GR: $378,000

Below are the average signing bonus dollars broken down into sub-categories of source:

• HS: $1,364,704
• SO: $1,118,873
• JR: $786,884
• J1: $264,640
• J3: $228,750
• J2: $218,821
• SR: $108,252
• 5S: $56,000
• GR: $29,077

Below are the median signing bonus dollars broken down into sub-categories of source:

• HS: $822,500
• SO: $502,500
• JR: $240,450
• J3: $183,750
• J1: $173,750
• J2: $150,000
• SR: $100,000
• 5S: $50,000
• GR: $25,000

Hitting Art Vs. Science

This is the convergence point where the art of hitting meets the science. The discipline of becoming a great hitter takes effort and a keen sense of one’s identity. Traits and styles are based on how one moves and how a player nurtures that identity based on natural, God-given talents. 

“A lot of hitting skill is built at a pretty young age,” Bazzana said. “So we ingrain these habits of movement and hand-eye coordination when we first pick up a bat; that’s what your brain knows. So when you try to move like someone else it’s almost like learning a new skill even if it’s the same game.”

Genetics plays a role, too, Bazzana explained.

“Some guys are bigger and more mobile, others are bigger and less mobile,” he said. “Some are small and twitchy and really tight movers. There’s going to be different movement patterns. Are they loose? Are they fluid? Are they dominant in rotation? Or are they just leg power? There’s all these different things that equate to being a great hitter.” 

The search to develop an identity as a hitter is based on these traits. However, it’s the pursuit of expanding upon one’s identity through such work that ultimately forges great hitters in the major leagues. According to Bazzana, being a great hitter means constantly adjusting, refining his swing and expanding his abilities. In an age when everyone is searching for a magic pill, it comes down to the work one puts forth in trying to “find that next gear.”

“That’s the amazing part about hitting and baseball,” Bazzana said. “People do it in such different ways. Everyone wants to find one magic pill. At the end of the day when it comes down to movement.

“There is no magic pill.”

Learning From The Best

The question that plagues many baseball fans and evaluators is what to look for when defining great hitters. What do the best hitters do well and why? When we look at the art of hitting, who are the masters? What do they do that makes them so successful?

Bazzana sees one particular trait that separates the greats from just-good hitters.

“Often, one of the first things I’ll pick up is how well the body and the barrel match the plane of the pitch,” he said. “The best hitters posturally match the angle of the pitch with the plane of their upper half and the barrel. Connected is the term that people use. The barrel gets deeper into the zone for certain guys and it stays on the plane of the pitch.”

In an age where we have measurements for everything, angles and swing path have become a bigger part of the conversation. In this pursuit to optimize angles, Bazzana explained how he draws inspiration from a notable name. 

“The best example I give is Juan Soto,” he said. “His bat is connected behind his back shoulder and he sets that posture to the angle of the pitch. He matches the plane and he squares the ball up to all parts of the field … It’s why he’s as efficient as he is and why he’s in the zone for so long.”

Seeing Bazzana draw inspiration from a player like Soto shouldn’t come as a shock. While Bazzana hasn’t shown that same kind of power, there’s a common thread connecting their games: strong swing decisions.

That advanced plate approach was developed during Bazzana’s time spent at Oregon State. He described himself as “an average swing decisions guy” as a freshman with the Beavers in 2022, but over his final two college seasons, Bazzana walked 135 times, second behind only Athletics first-round pick Nick Kurtz.

“For me, my pitch recognition and swing decisions stem from reps,” he said. “Years of seeing a ball, hitting it, making a decision.”

Bazzana is accurate in his depiction of his advancement between his freshman and sophomore seasons at Oregon State. In 2022, he chased at a rate of 20.6% with a swing rate of 42.2%. A year later, his chase rate dropped to 15.5% while also cutting his swing rate to 36.1%. Those metrics dropped even further in 2024 to a 14.3% chase and a 32.7% swing rate.

During that summer heading into his sophomore year, Bazzana was at a crossroads. He’d shown strong plate skills, but his swing decisions and impact needed improvement. That is when the artist leaned on science to challenge his identity and expand his his future as a hitter. 

“A lot of hitters with good whiff rates, they often have a great ability to have good swing decisions,” Bazzana explained. “I think they have good hand-eye, they pick things up sooner. But in this game, I think guys with high contact rates get caught up on this identity that they can’t strike out. They can’t swing and miss, and so they want to put the ball in play. That will work for some guys but not for others. This is where swing decisions come from an approach and the coordination of it. Not everyone can have great decisions but it’s being stubborn to your zones, your locations and where you think you can do damage.” 

Bazzana again took cues from Juan Soto and his ability to not only draw walks at a high rate, but hit for power, as well.

“You dive in and you realize he’s tunneling certain zones or certain pitch types almost all the time,” Bazzana said of Soto. “He’s very stubborn, he’s okay taking the edge strike often. He’s okay with a looking strikeout that clips the edge. He knows 90% of the time that’s ball four. Over time, you realize the power of swing, no swing.” 

The application of science and tracking also comes into play for Bazzana, who said he uses technologically-advanced batting cage set-ups like HitTrax, iPitch and Trajekt for nearly all his training. Whether in the midst of his in-season cage work, offseason training or in-game performance, more information is better. 

“That’s where the ability of understanding the zone better often comes from,” he said. “Also paying attention to the Trackman report postgame. I go in after a game, and I know I swung at an edge pitch. Where was that pitch actually? Then you start to grasp, okay, that was an inch off. Over time you start to have a feel for the zone.”

Three Stats For Hitting Success

When asked which metrics he follows most closely and which he feels align with his performance, Bazzana pointed to a trio of data points: in-zone fastball swing rate, air pull percentage and 90th percentile exit velocity.

“Understanding that the fastball is your best chance to do damage,” Bazzana said of his approach. “I want to be swinging at fastballs in the zone, especially hard fastballs.”

Pulling those types of pitches in the air is an especially important skill for players who aren’t Aaron Judge-sized.

“For someone who’s not 6-foot-7 or 250 pounds, there’s power in hitting the ball to the short porch and doing it often,” said Bazzana, who measures at 6-feet, 200 pounds. “Some of the best hitters in the big leagues the last five to ten years aren’t the big humans like Judge, (Giancarlo) Stanton, (Yordan) Alvarez. It’s Mookie (Betts), it’s Jose Ramirez, it’s (Alex) Bregman. These guys are all incredible at pulling the ball in the air. When they square it up, they can fly it true to the pull side whether it’s at 99 mph or 102 mph.”

And that’s where Bazzana’s final key metric comes into play.

“I think 90th percentile exit velocity is huge,” he said. “You look at the highest in terms of that metric versus the lowest. Players who hit the ball hard and get to power more often produce the most.”

Training For Speed

Hitting the ball hard was not something that naturally came to Bazzana, who has trained to add bat speed dating back to his time in Australia. Before he had access to top facilities and specially-tailored overspeed equipment like Driveline’s Overload and Underload bats, he used his own intuition and a do-it-yourself attitude to train.

“It was like ‘Why don’t we make do,'” Bazzana said, explaining how, as a teenager, he and his father constructed their own equipment. “I got an old bat, and we put coins all in different spots and it became 37 to 40 ounces. We swung that and then found the lightest drop-five or drop-eight bat in the clubhouse at our field and that was my underload.”

Nowadays, Bazzana works extensively with the real-deal Driveline bats, which have been staples of his training since coming over to the United States.

In the summer heading into his sophomore year at Oregon State, Bazzana went to Driveline headquarters for the first time, spending ten weeks there to build the batspeed that grew over his final two collegiate seasons. The added impact was the final piece to the puzzle that saw Bazzana ascend to the top pick in the 2024 draft.

Looking at one of his self-proclaimed important metrics, Bazzana’s 90th percentile exit velocity jumped from 101.4 mph in 2022 to 105.9 mph in 2023 to 108.9 mph in his draft season. The results translated from a .348 expected wOBA on contact in 2022 to a mark that ballooned to .521 in 2024. 

With a lifetime of training and now his first few weeks of professional baseball experience behind him, Bazzana continues to be prepared for the challenge and work it takes to be a great professional hitter.