The USA players split into three teams and also played against Canada’s junior national team, which was training in preparation for the U-18 World Cup Americas Qualifier that just wrapped up yesterday.

These were 35 players from the United States and Canada who stood out at the NTDP, with reports and videos below.

The post 35 Players Who Stood Out At USA Baseball’s 16U/17U NTDP appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

This year USA Baseball fielded two college rosters: an international friendship series roster composed mostly of rising juniors who will be eligible for the 2025 draft and a summer league tour roster composed mostly of rising sophomores who won’t be eligible until 2026.

Here we rank the top 10 players from the “senior” team, which isn’t quite as hitter-heavy as last year’s CNT—which featured 2024 first-rounders JJ Wehterholt, Braden Montgomery, Seaver King, Jac Caglianone and Charlie Condon—and is instead led by a pair of high-profile, high-probability starters in righthander Tyler Bremner and lefthander Jamie Arnold.

Team USA went 5-0 in their friendship series against Taiwan and then won a July 4 game against the summer league tour roster, 4-3. Team USA stats referenced include trials roster and Taiwan series games and are pulled from SynergySports. 

The post 2024 Team USA Collegiate National Team Top 10 Prospects appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

It is important to note that the dataset is incomplete. Pitchers may or may not translate their pitch shapes directly from college baseball to the majors due to differences in the baseballs, as well as potential differences in data quality and measurement. If a pitcher isn’t included here, it’s because there wasn’t any Statcast data.

We’ll also be looking at things primarily through a “stuff” lens. Namely, those pitch shapes that have the potential to work in the major leagues. This is inspired by the countless examples of unheralded college pitchers who take huge leaps once they hit a major league development system.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Mason Marriott, RHP, 6th Round

Marriott possesses a solid fastball, sitting 93 and topping out at 95, with slightly below-average ride, which will likely be worse with the minor league ball. He pairs that with with a two-plane curveball at 80 mph, with promising feel for spin (2800 rpm), which might be a nice secondary for him. He mixes in a changeup that will need some development. It’s a shallow arsenal, and his performance in college wasn’t great either, so he’ll need to develop a slider and/or gain a few ticks of velo to be a viable prospect.

Luke Craig, LHP, 7th Round

Craig’s got the natural arm slot for a plus sweeper. While it only gets about 8 inches of sweep at the moment, he’s not getting the spin efficiency he needs to generate the plus sweep that his 2600 rpms should be able to generate. He’s able to get the almost perfectly horizontal spin axis required, he’ll just need to learn how to avoid gyro spin on the pitch. This is likely something that can be tweaked with professional training. His hard pitch looks like a sinker with great run, and a lot of movement on both planes. I have it as an above-average pitch even at its 92 mph velocity. This is an arsenal that will work very well against lefties, and completely fall apart against righties.

John West, RHP, 12th Round

West is a massive human, standing 6-foot-8, 265 pounds, giving him the potential to throw a lot harder than his sinker’s current 91-92 mph average velocity. One of the ways to generate velocity, both as a hitter and a pitcher, is to leverage ground forces, which having more mass helps with. His sinker will be a fantastic weapon against righthanded batters, as it’s a SSW sinker, with huge run and massive vertical movement deviation (movement that differs from what the spin axis would predict). He has a nice gyro slider that he uses as his primary secondary, and should be a platoon-neutral weapon, but he’ll need to push his sinker velocity up to help it play up.

West also has a fascinating changeup, with negative vert and decent fade. It’s quite rare for a changeup to have negative vert, which could give it potential to really fool batters. This gives us a very different movement plot:

It’s almost entirely an east-west movement profile. I think he’ll need to add a four-seam fastball, and should have an easy time learning the sweeper given the arm slot and ability to sweep the sinker. I’m very intrigued by this profile, and look forward to seeing what he can accomplish with pro development at his disposal.

Kyle Ayers, RHP, 13th Round

Ayers represents a tale of two sets of numbers. On the one hand, he’s a proverbial “stuff monster;” on the other hand he’s a college reliever with a terrible track record of performance. He also underwent Tommy John surgery and is likely out for the season. Despite all that, I think Ayers has a chance to be a high-leverage arm that could move very quickly.

Ayers has an easy plus fastball from a shape and velocity standpoint, with nearly 3 inches of ride over expected (19 inches IVB/flight), and great velocity at 96 mph, with very good spin at 2500 rpm. The ride is easy to see, as almost all of his fastballs are above the expected IVB line. He pairs it with a gyro slider/cutter with negative vert that should be an absolute weapon for him, with elite feel for spin at 2950 rpms.

He has the rare ability to throw it with curveball spin, which helps him get “death ball” movement. This pitch looks like it has plus-plus potential from a stuff perspective. He throws a huge two-plane curveball at 80-81 that he probably won’t need. I probably shouldn’t be this excited about a relief pitcher prospect, but his pitch data is just so compelling, I can’t help myself. I’ll be keeping on eye on Ayers as he makes his way through Arizona’s system.

Rocco Reid, LHP, 15th Round

Reid is a low-slot sinkerballing lefty, with a nice changeup that shows huge depth, and his data look a lot like John West’s, albeit from the left side, and with about 8 inches less height. The low-slot sinker plus depthy changeup might be a profile that Arizona was targeting in the later rounds.

Dawson Brown, RHP, 16th Round

Brown has an interesting gyro cutter at 88 mph, and decent velo on his sinker at 93 mph (from a low slot like the other guys listed here), along with a changeup with negative vert. He’ll need some work to fix the sinker shape, but his slider and changeup could be decent.

Colorado Rockies

Brody Brecht, RHP, CB-B

Brecht’s fastball is likely not going to be his calling card. It’s a low-spin pitch with well below-average ride. While he has good velocity at 96, he’ll need to rush it up at around 100 to offset what will be poor shape. His slider, on the other hand, is a fantastic pitch, with “death ball” movement at -4 inches of vertical break. He could likely get major league hitters out with that pitch. As a low-spin guy, he might need to develop a splitter to give him a weapon against lefties. I was expecting to be blown away by Brecht’s data, given the scouting superlatives, but to my eyes, it looks like a plus-plus slider, with the athleticism to dream on the other stuff being good enough that it will all come together for him. I do think the low-spin arsenal is a theoretically better fit for Coors field.

Lebarron Johnson, RHP, 5th Round

Lebarron’s movement chart is just begging for a two-plane curveball to fill out the movement profile. However, he already shows a very promising three-pitch mix. The fastball looks almost average in every respect, sitting 94 mph, with average ride given the slot, average spin rates and average extension. That may sound like a bad thing, but sometimes the important thing with a fastball is that it shouldn’t be terrible. He throws both a hard riding cutter at 87 and a gyro slider at 84. He’ll need both those pitches to become plus to succeed.

Fidel Ulloa, RHP, 7th Round

Ulloa is a reliever with a subpar fastball at 93-94 and a gyro slider/cutter that got a lot of whiffs at 84-87 mph. He pales in comparison to Brock Moore who was taken later in the 7th round, without any clear reason to me as to why a team would select Ulloa over Brock Moore if they were choosing just between the two. It’s somewhat easier for me to do a post-facto analysis, rather than picking from a giant pool of players, however, I believe teams should be taking as many arms as they can that have a realistic shot at being a major leaguer. I’m guessing the Rockies really like the slider here, and I will be very happy to be proven wrong by Ulloa.

Luke Jewett, RHP, 8th Round

Jewett started 14 games this season for UCLA, with a solid 4.35 ERA and decent command, averaging almost six innings a start. He has a starter’s frame, standing 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds. More importantly, he has a four- or five-pitch arsenal that, while not exciting, could make him a back0of-the-rotation starter if everything breaks right.

The fastball gets only 16 inches of ride, with about 2 inches of ride below expected, and he’ll need to throw harder than the 92 he currently does. You can see above that he gets his whiffs on the few pitches that get above-average ride. He also throws a sinker, with some decent vertical movement deviation, giving him a couple of fastballs he can use against righties. The throws either a gyro slider/curve that is a tweener pitch, neither a sweeper, nor a gyro. I think those could be refined into two pitches (gyro and sweeper). He flashed a changeup with poor shape at 86. He’ll need to develop a lot to be successful, but there’s a hope for a No. 5 or No. 6 starter type if you really squint.

Justin Loer, LHP, 13th Round

Loer is a huge dude who throws from a low lefty slot that gets by throwing mostly sliders and changeups. The changeup is interesting as it gets 16 inches of fade, giving him at least one weapon against righties, though his 91 mph sinker will likely only be viable against lefties. Could be a lefty-one inning guy, but he’ll need to throw just the gyro slider and changeup to righties. If you can get a situational lefty in the 13th round, that’s a pretty good outcome.

Hunter Omlid, RHP, 20th Round

Omlid exceeds his expected IVB by 3-4 inches, allowing his 92-93 mph velocity to play up. It also has great spin at 2500 rpms, so there might be room for more with gains in spin efficiency. He has a 2850 rpm sweeper, that currently doesn’t get the 16 inches or more of sweep that makes them play up, but he’s not far off. If they can teach him to be more spin efficient with that pitch as well, he could have two plus pitches. That’s great value for a 20th round pick.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Jakob Wright, LHP, 4th Round

I must confess that when a pitcher is selected by the Dodgers, I expect to see sizzling data. So when I first glanced at Wright’s data, it didn’t immediately pop, mostly because he throws a hard cutter, rather than a traditional riding four-seam fastball. My data is from 2023, but he showed a low spin-efficiency four-seam fastball at 90-91 that I’d grade out as slightly below average. He showed the potential for a plus sweeper if he can be more spin efficient with the 2700 rpms he generates on the pitch.

Evan Shaw, LHP, 16th Round

Evan Shaw has two very distinct pitches, a huge sweeper with negative vert and a low-efficiency cut fastball at 90 mph. The sweeper is unusual as most sweepers get positive vert due to movement deviation, and I can see the Dodgers teaching him how to trade some bite for sweep (generally a good thing with sweepers) that will help it play up. The fastball is all over the place, and he’ll either need to go all-in on the low spin efficiency four-seam look, or throw a traditional high-efficiency four-seam fastball, or a true sinker. I think the sweeper is the calling card here, and the Dodgers will teach him two fastballs, giving him a chance to be a lefty specialist down the road.

San Diego Padres

Tyson Neighbors, RHP, 4th Round

Neighbors’ fastball ranks as one of the best in the draft class from a pure stuff perspective, right up there with Brock Moore (easily my favourite pick of the draft), Thatcher Hurd, Hagen Smith and Chase Burns. It’s easy to see why when we chart his pitches:

Every single fastball he throws is at least 2-3 inches above the expected line given his release characteristics and height, with the average pitch being closer to 4 inches of extra IVB. It’s good velocity at 95-96, with room for optimization if he learns to extend more than the 5.7 feet he currently gets. He pairs that with a 2900 rpm curveball with huge depth and great velocity at 84 mph, which looks like it will be a really good pitch, and a 2800 rpm gyro slider/cutter at a blistering 89 mph, which gives him a profile that looks a lot like Chase Burns from a pure stuff perspective, minus a few ticks of velocity, with less refined secondaries, and out of the bullpen where he can go max effort. He also has a track record of college dominance, striking out 160 batters over 95 innings.

I think Neighbors should absolutely be given a chance to start, as he has the makings of three plus pitches, and the more reps he can get, the better his command will get. I’m a big believer in not type-casting guys as “reliever only”, and that the potential difference-makers like Neighbors should be afforded the opportunity to falsify the relief-only premise. I absolutely love this pick for the Padres.

Clark Candiotti, RHP, 4C

Candiotti put together a decent final season in college as a starter, and has a big frame, listed at 6-foot-4, 237 pounds. It’s a solid arsenal with an average fastball in shape and velo, a gyro slider with plus potential and a hammer curve at 78 mph. He’ll likely need to develop a changeup, but the north-south arsenal should play well against both righties and lefties even if he doesn’t. As an older guy with little leverage, the Padres got a nice scoop here, saving about $440K of bonus pool room, which helped them land the mammoth Boston Bateman in the second round for an overslot deal. Candiotti has a shot to be a back-end starter, making this a nice win-win.

San Francisco Giants

Greg Farone, LHP, 7th Round

Data is from 2023. Farone is a 6-foot-6 lefty that throws from a very vertical slot, which makes his otherwise excellent 21 inches of IVB/flight play down somewhat, though it’s still a roughly average pitch despite the 89 mph velocity. He throws a hammer curve at 78 and a changeup without depth or fade. The velo will need to jump quite a bit for Farone to be be a viable prospect.

Tyler Switalski, 16th Round

Switalski has a below-average fastball with fringe-average shape, but subpar velo, a changeup with promising depth at 81-82 and a gyro slider that he’ll need to throw much harder than his current 78 mph. The gyro slider could give him three viable pitches if he can push the velo to 85 mph, which is asking a lot, but the fastball velo would indicate it’s possible.

Hunter Dryden, RHP, 17th Round

Dryden’s data are from the MLB Draft League, so we can be more confident that his stuff will translate to the minor leagues more directly, as they use the same ball there. His fastball is very inconsistent shape-wise, mostly due to not getting some more east-west spin rather than pure vertical backspin. The Giants will be looking to clean that up, which might help it get close to an average pitch shape wise. He combines that with a gyro slider at 81, with decent potential, and a changeup which he’ll need to refine. Dryden has the look of a guy who will benefit from pro development, however, he’ll need to make a big leap to become a major league pitcher.

The post NL West Draft Picks With The Most Intriguing Statcast Pitch Data appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

It is important to note that the dataset is incomplete. Pitchers may or may not translate their pitch shapes directly from college baseball to the majors due to differences in the baseballs, as well as potential differences in data quality and measurement. If a pitcher isn’t included here, it’s because there wasn’t any Statcast data.

We’ll also be looking at things primarily through a “stuff” lens. Namely, those pitch shapes that have the potential to work in the major leagues. This is inspired by the countless examples of unheralded college pitchers who take huge leaps once they hit a major league development system.

Chicago Cubs

Evan Aschenbeck, LHP, 13th Round

Aschenbeck is the only Cubs pitcher we have public Statcast data on other than Eli Lovich, who projects as a batter. Aschenbeck throws both a sinker and a four-seam fastball, with the four-seam being a much better pitch, getting 19 inches of ride from a low slot, making his 91 mph play up. He manages to get 6.8 feet of extension on the pitch, adding up to a average fastball grade from a stuff perspective. Aschenbeck pairs it with a bullet slider with extremely low spin efficiency, but it will struggle to be an effective pitch at its current 80-81 mph velocity. He rounds out the arsenal with a changeup with drop and fade. This is the vertical fastball, gyro slider, changeup package which works very well as an arsenal, but he’ll need to add 3-4 mph of velocity to make it work at the major league level.

Cincinnati Reds

Chase Burns, RHP, 1st Round

I dove into detail on Burns’ glorious Statcast data, which you can read here, but I’m such a huge fan of his, I’m going to write about him some more.

Burns’ data are electric, with elite velocity that he holds deep into starts, elite feel for spin (his 2700 rpm fastball would be the highest in MLB, this year and last year, including relief pitchers), good extension and tremendous vertical ride. While there are concerns that his fastball is too hittable, and that he gave up too many home runs in college, I’m here to tell you that this package of elite fastball traits, in an elite athletic frame, just doesn’t come along very often. He pairs it with a double-plus gyro slider, a hammer curveball with elite spin, and a changeup with huge armside run. This is two present plus-plus pitches (fastball and gyro slider), with the potential for a third, and at least an average changeup that he can sprinkle in to lefties.

I love his fire and passion on the mound. In my opinion, it’s as good evidence as anything that he wants to compete each and every pitch. There are aspects to pitching that you can teach and train, and there are some you just can’t. It’s extremely hard to train elite velocity if you don’t have it, and next to impossible to learn how to spin the ball the way Burns already does. If I was designing a pitcher in a lab, he would look something like Chase Burns.

Luke Holman, RHP, CB-B

Holman, doesn’t have anywhere near the spin rates that Burns does, but he makes the most of it, with an extremely efficient four-seam fastball that gets about 2-3 inches of ride above expected given his arm slot, with nearly 20 inches of IVB/flight. There’s some projectability in his frame, lending hope that he can build on his present 92 mph velocity.

He has a true gyro cutter with an almost 0/0 movement profile, but he’ll need to throw it about 3 mph harder to hit that crucial 85/86 mph threshold that gyro sliders need to be effective. Holman throws an interesting gyro curve (for lack of a better term) a low spin efficiency pitch that gets -5 inches of vert, at the same velo band as the gyro slider. He also has a rising sinker with a ton of movement that grades out really well. This profile usually needs a good changeup to round it all out. Given the lack of spin on his pitches, I really like the gyro slider and gyro curve combination. It’s a nice blend of present stuff, track record of performance in college, and some projectability to dream on.

Jordan Little, RHP, 15th Round

Little throws a 94 mph fastball with good ride, which plays up from his low arm slot, it should be good enough shape-wise to not stand in his way. I have a limited sample set for his secondaries, but his two-plane curveball at 81 mph looks promising, as does his changeup that he got good depth on. He also had a couple of mini-sweepers that don’t sweep enough to be viable. This is a nice blend of velocity and decent secondaries, and a tremendous value in the 15th round.

Jimmy Romano, RHP, 16th Round

Romano added 2-3 inches of ride to his fastball from 2023 to 2024, but it still has below-average ride, even with the MiLB baseball used in the MLB Draft League. He gets solid velocity on the pitch, averaging 92-93 mph (topping out at 95), but he’ll need to either improve his velo a lot, or have standout secondaries to be viable.

We see what looks like a gyro curveball in the bottom left. A gyro curveball is a pitch that generally has curveball topspin, but also very low efficiency. It’s labelled a slider in the chart. We see a changeup without fade or depth, and perhaps a cut-fastball at 90 mph.

Trent Hodgdon, RHP, 17th Round

Hodgdon is the classic Stuff vs Performance guy, with a career 6.59 ERA across three NCAA seasons, with 87 strikeouts in 56 innings, albeit with an alarming 48 walks. That explains why his solid 93 mph fastball with about 19 inches of ride slipped all the way to the 17th round. He’ll need a massive leap in command and probably a couple ticks of velocity to be a viable big-league prospect.

Milwaukee Brewers

Chandler Welch, RHP, 6th Round

Welch started 17 games this season, averaging just over five innings a start, with 24 walks in his 89 innings, to 88 strikeouts. Let’s break down his arsenal, which has some promise.

Every discussion about a starter begins with the fastball, and in Chandler Welch’s case, he has two very distinct fastballs. His sinker is clearly the better pitch, with 15 inches of armside run, and while it’s currently a below-average pitch, he already gets great vertical movement deviation (more drop than the spin axis would indicate), and should make it a very effective pitch against the lefties. The challenge will be finding a primary fastball against lefties, as four-seam fastball, which operates in the 93 mph range, about 2 mph harder than the sinker, has poor shape despite his lower arm slot.

The pitch labeled a curveball is probably a sweeper, as it gets positive vertical movement deviation, and many of the pitches hit the critical baseline of 16 inches of gloveside sweep, with plenty in the 20s. It’s easily his best pitch, and he averaged almost 2700 rpms on it, a key ingredient for an effective sweeper. He’s also able to throw a true gyro slider with low spin efficiency, giving him two distinct slider shapes. There are tweaks to be made with both pitches to throw them harder, and be more consistent shape-wise. He’ll need to develop a changeup, which he’s flashed good depth on, as he currently doesn’t have any true weapons against lefties. This is looks like a solid arm that might never grace a Top 100 list, but end up having a productive major league career.

Mason Molina, LHP, 7th Round

Molina makes the most of his 89 mph fastball, getting 21 inches of ride on the pitch, which is well above-average for his slot. Given the exceptional ride the pitch gets, it’s no surprise he’s struck out 260 batters in 200 collegiate innings. If he can maintain that kind of ride transitioning to the MiLB ball, it will be an average pitch even at that velocity. He pairs it with a changeup that gets good depth, a huge curveball at 75 mph that’s probably too big and slow for the majors, and a low spin efficiency gyro slider that should pair extremely well with the vertical fastball. The upside is obviously limited due to the velocity, but there’s a very good chance he outperforms many pitchers who throw much harder than him.

Sam Garcia, LHP, 8th Round

Garcia is another soft-tossing lefty that was a starter in college and performed rather well, striking out 115 batters in 89 innings this season. He has an extremely low arm angle, but still manages to get excellent ride on his four-seam fastball, allowing it to play up well above its velocity. He pairs it with a gyro slider that probably needs more velocity, but will benefit from the vertical break differential to the fastball.

Caedmon Parker, RHP, 11th Round

Parker has a 92 mph fastball with suboptimal shape. We see the majority of his four-seamers falling below the expected ride given his release point. He throws his cutter really hard, almost as hard as the fastball. The cutter might be the pitch the Brewers really liked and are hoping to build around. His curveball has huge two-plane movement and good feel for spin around 2600 rpms. We also see a few changeups, with tremendous fade, and excellent depth.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Josh Hartle, LHP, 3rd Round

Hartle’s fastball appears to be a hard cutter. It’s essentially a low spin efficiency four-seam fastball, which won’t rely on vertical break to be effective. His sweeper is fascinating, with incredible drop and sweep, and tremendous spin at 2900 rpms. He has the natural arm angle to make this pitch work. It could be a deadly weapon against lefties, even with just a 91 mph fastball (faster fastballs help offspeed pitches play up). The gyro slider should be a useful platoon-neutral weapon as well. Hartle’s stock is way down after a poor season. We’ll see if the Pirates pitching dev can right the ship.

St. Louis Cardinals

Brian Holiday, RHP, 3rd Round

Holiday features a riding fastball at 92 mph, with roughly 1 inch of ride above expected, though it remains to be seen if the ride will fully translate to the minor league ball. His gyro slider was a whiff machine, despite not having any standout traits. He mixes in a huge curveball at 77, and a changeup with poor shape at 82 mph. Holiday’s stuff could play up in a bullpen role, especially if it helps him find a few extra ticks on the fastball. He was a successful starter in college, so he’ll likely begin his career as a starter, which would mean he’ll need to drastically improve the curveball and changeup.

Braden Davis, LHP, 5th Round

Davis’ fastball gets slightly above-average ride. He combines it with a weird changeup that has almost the same movement profile, but with a 10 mph gap. It was a whiff machine, so it’s possible the weird shape will make it work. He rounds out the arsenal with a gyro slider that also generated a lot of whiffs. The lack of fastball quality limits the arsenal, but he might have two quality secondaries already.

Andrew Dutkanych IV, RHP, 7th Round

Dutkanych IV has the type of fastball I love to see, with every single pitch getting more ride than expected given his release point. It’s an easy plus fastball with good velo at 94, up to 96, and over 19 inches of ride. He has a bullet cutter/slider at 85 with extremely low spin efficiency, a big curveball at 80 mph with tremendous spin (2750 rpm) and a splitter/changeup that he can kill spin with and get good depth. This is a very exciting arm that I think he’ll be a top-200 prospect if he can throw strikes.

The post NL Central Draft Picks With The Most Intriguing Statcast Pitch Data appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

This podcast was recorded before Rays supplemental second-rounder Tyler Bell announced his intentions to reach campus at Kentucky. We have more on that decision here.

Time Stamps

• (2:00) What were the big surprises?
• (4:30) Players we expected to go on day one who didn’t
• (8:00) Which were our favorite picks in the draft?
• (13:00) Getting excited about the Cardinals draft
• (16:00) The Rockies landing the top prospect at No. 3
• (21:00) Did the Guardians execute as expected?
• (25:00) Thoughts on the Angels continued fast-moving strategy?
• (34:00) A surprising draft for the Brewers
• (39:00) Why we’re excited about the first few Nationals picks
• (47:00) The Yankees going pitcher-heavy early and often for the first time in a while

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The post 2024 MLB Draft Big Picture Takeaways & Analysis appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

It’s Aug. 1, the first date on the calendar under the new recruiting rules when college coaches can contact 2026 players. The top players in the class will immediately get offers and navigate a flood of calls and messages from coaches at powerhouse programs around the country.

Now that recruiting is officially in full swing, Baseball America has updated rankings of the top uncommitted players in the 2026 class. Many of those players are ranked among the top 100 overall prospects in the 2026 class, but this list expands beyond that to include uncommitted players who aren’t ranked on that list as well.

Below are the top uncommitted players to watch in the 2026 class, with full scouting reports available here on players ranked in the top 100 overall players for 2026. We will keep track of recent commits below.

Recent Commits

Aug. 13, 2024: SS/RHP Dylan Cheek (No. 57) commits to Arkansas.

Aug. 9 2024: RHP Amos Rich (No. 58) commits to North Carolina.

Aug. 3, 2024: SS/RHP Keaton Neal (No. 53) commits to Florida.

Aug. 1, 2024: RHP Cameron Hanes (No. 29) commits to Florida.

Aug. 1, 2024: Added RHP Tucker Long after he reopened his recruitment.

The post Top Uncommitted Class Of 2026 High School Baseball Players appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Bell ranked as the No. 103 2024 MLB Draft prospect and was selected by the Rays with the 66th pick in the second supplemental round. Bell developed a reputation as a well-rounded player as an underclassman. He pairs a patient offensive approach with solid-ish tools across the board. We graded him as a future fringe-average hitter with average power, average speed and above-average fielding ability and arm strength at shortstop.

While this is a clear and obvious win for Kentucky’s baseball program, Bell was 19 years old on draft day and will be draft-eligible once again in the 2026 draft class—when he has a chance to vault himself into first-round consideration with SEC performance.

Bell now joins Angels third-rounder Ryan Prager as the second top-10 round selection who has announced his decision to not sign. Just one top-10 round selection didn’t sign in 2023—Cardinals 10th-rounder Caden Kendle, who was subsequently selected and signed in the fifth round by the Twins this year.

For failing to sign Bell, the Rays will lose the $1,260,200 million slot value associated with the 66th pick from their bonus pool. They will, however, receive a compensation pick in the 2025 draft. The deadline for all draft picks to sign is Thursday, Aug. 1 at 5 p.m. ET.

Bell was the only player the Rays didn’t sign in this year’s draft class, as the team has already agreed to terms with the other 20 players they selected. The Rays have committed $8,582,600 signing bonus dollars towards a $10,093,100 total bonus pool, which meant they had at least $1,510,500 to offer Bell without exceeding their bonus pool. If Tampa Bay wanted to go to the full 5% overage, the team had just over $2 million available to try and sign Bell out of his Kentucky commitment.

Tyler Bell Full Scouting Report

BA Grade: 50/Extreme

Hit: 45. Power: 50. Run: 50. Field: 55. Arm: 55.

A lean and athletic shortstop with a projectable 6-foot-1, 190-pound frame, Bell established himself as a well-rounded player and solid performer as an underclassman. He’s a patient hitter with a solid eye at the plate from both sides, though there is a bit of length to his swing and it can get steep, which leads to some questions about how he might handle elevated velocity at the next level.

Still, he can drive the ball hard and makes a lot of contact in general. Bell should provide average and on-base value as a hitter. He’s a solid defender at shortstop with fluid actions and above-average body control, with above-average arm strength and the ability to throw from multiple angles. While Bell went just 2-for-14 (.143) at Perfect Game’s WWBA World Championship in Jupiter in 2023, he hit a number of balls hard that just didn’t find a gap in the field.

He was a standout at the 2024 MLB Draft combine, showing impressive actions at shortstop and solid raw power from both sides in batting practice. Bell is committed to Kentucky and will be 19 on draft day, making him a draft-eligible sophomore in the 2026 class if he makes it to campus.

The post Rays Draft Pick Tyler Bell Intends To Reach Campus At Kentucky appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

It is important to note that the dataset is incomplete. Pitchers may or may not translate their pitch shapes directly from college baseball to the majors due to differences in the baseballs, as well as potential differences in data quality and measurement. If a pitcher isn’t included here, it’s because there wasn’t any Statcast data.

We’ll also be looking at things primarily through a “stuff” lens. Namely, those pitch shapes that have the potential to work in the major leagues. This is inspired by the countless examples of unheralded college pitchers who take huge leaps once they hit a major league development system.

More Intriguing Statcast Pitch Data

• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West

Atlanta Braves

Carter Holton, LHP, 2nd Round

Holton is often characterized as an “undersized” pitcher due to his 5-foot-11 frame, however, if we glance through the Braves’ top prospects, four of their top five pitchers are in the 6-foot-1 to 6-foot-2 range, and Spencer Strider is only 6 feet tall. This may or may not be a demographic that the Braves are targeting either directly, or as a market inefficiency (bigger players have more potential for leveraging ground effects and maximizing velocity through the kinetic chain).

Holton has a fairly vertical delivery, meaning his rising 93-mph sinker with 17-18 inches of IVB gets about average ride given his arm slot, and I have it as roughly an above-average sinker, given its huge total movement profile. He looks to be a good candidate to add a four-seamer (if the pitch classification is correct), which might add a couple of inches of ride and be an average or better pitch. He throws a two-plane curveball at 77 mph, and a gyro slider at 83-84 that could be his best pitch. Metrically, Horton looks similar to a lot of their top pitching prospects thanks to a riding fastball and a gyro slider, just from a smaller frame.

Herick Hernandez, LHP, 4th Round

The 5-foot-10 Hernandez and 5-foot-11 Holton sandwich the 6-foot-8 Luke Sinnard, so while the Braves aren’t afraid to draft and develop smaller stature guys, they don’t exclusively target that demographic. Hernandez has an even more vertical delivery than Holton, making his 92-mph fastball with 19 inches of ride play down. He has a gyro slider with negative vert that he’ll need to throw a little harder, and a high-spin two-plane curveball at 2700 rpm that could give him a nice three -pitch mix. He’s not going to blow batters away with this profile, as he’ll probably need three-plus mph of velocity gains to be a viable pitching prospect.

Ethan Bagwell, RHP, 6th Round

Bagwell’s data is from 2023, where he threw a 92-mph fastball with great extension and dead zone shape. On the surface, that isn’t encouraging, but it was from a then-17-year-old. This is a development bet on projecting velocity gains. Along with great present extension, there’s hope they can put him in the lab and fix his pitch shapes.

Brett Sears, RHP, 7th Round

Sears signed for $12.5K, giving the Braves about $230K of bonus pool flexibility to move around and use on other players. His 89-mph fastball has decent shape and good extension. He’ll need to add a ton of velocity to be a viable prospect.

Jacob Kroeger, LHP, 10th Round

None of Kroeger’s pitch shapes stand out, as he throws a 91-mph sinker without sink or run, a hard changeup with a 3-4 mph gap to the sinker, as well a slow slider at 80, a fastball at 91-92 and a curveball at 78. This makes him a five-pitch lefty with a decent performance track record. The vast majority of these guys won’t pan out, but every once in a while, this type of pitcher adds velcity and learns how to better optimize their pitch shapes.

Miami Marlins

Aiden May, RHP, CB-B

May is a low-slot sinker/slider guy with a lot of potential. The sinker is a roughly average pitch with good velocity at 94.5 mph, but he needs to learn how to better leverage seam-shifted wake effects to better optimize the pitch. His calling card is a hellacious sweeper with 18 inches of glove-side sweep and 2900 rpm. Sweepers that can approach 3000 rpm are very likely to be good quality pitches from a stuff perspective. The pitch could probably reach 20-plus inches of sweep with major league training and development.

In addition to the sinker/sweeper pair, he shows the ability to throw a gyro cutter at 89 mph with low spin efficiency and a 95-mph cut-fastball that grades out as nearly average and can be a very effective pitch. Pitches that are labelled as four-seam fastballs but have low spin efficiency operate differently than high-efficiency four-seamers. The classic examples of this is Justin Steele, and his future teammate, Cade Horton. He flashed a curveball with 2840 rpm and a split change at 88 mph with huge depth and low spin.

So, May is pitcher with six interesting pitches, good present velocity, elite feel for spin and at least one plus-plus pitch already in the slider. It’s no surprise he performed well this year, and I expect him to do even better as he hones his stuff. Usually guys with this much movement on their pitches have terrible walk numbers; May only walked 23 batters in 73 innings this year. I love this pick.

Nick Brink, RHP, 7th Round

Brink has a 91-92 mph fastball from an extremely vertical slot and an excellent gyro slider at 83 that has a very low estimated spin efficiency and which will grade out well if he can find a few more ticks of fastball velocity. He mixes in a changeup without sink or fade and a slurve at 80 mph. He’ll need to throw at least 95-96 to be a viable prospect.

Jake Faherty, RHP, 11th Round

Faherty is my favorite value pick at this point in my writeup. How does a talent like this fall to the 11th round? He’s probably “just” a reliever, and he walked 9 batters in 14.2 SEC innings, but between the SEC and the Cape Cod League, he compiled 40 strikeouts to 11 walks in 22.2 innings with an ERA in the low 2.00s while surrendering just one HR.

You’re probably not reading this column to find out how he did at the collegiate level, so let me get to why he’s such a great value pick:

He primarily threw a plus sinker at 96-pmh with huge run at almost 17 inches. The sinker already grades out as better than major league average, albeit with the college ball. However, it isn’t even the most interesting pitch he throws. His four-seam fastball, thrown from the same low arm slot, gets 17-18 inches of IVB, which is 4.5 inches above average for the release. That makes it an easy plus pitch at that velocity, with the potential for more as he can spin it at an elite 2750 rpms. He mixes in a gyro cutter at 88 mph that could use some optimization, and given the sinker profile, he should also be a good candidate for a sweeper.

I’d give Faherty a chance to start. There are very few pitchers with the potential to throw two high-quality fastballs, and he has enough feel for spin that he could add a viable fourth or fifth pitch, if needed. Giving him reps and innings will give him the chance to iron out the command. This is an absolute steal for the Marlins here.

Chase Centala, RHP, 20th Round

Centala is another low-slot sinker guy with good velocity (93.4 mph) that he pairs with a gyro slider showing average spin at 86 mph. The stuff is solid, if not spectacular; a good value for a 20th round pick.

New York Mets

Carson Benge, RHP, 1st Round

Carlos Collazo had Benge as the 15th-ranked player in the class, mostly due to his potential as a hitter. That makes sense, as his pitching arsenal doesn’t warrant a first round pick. He throws both a four-seamer and a sinker at 91-92 mph, with the four-seam variant probably being the better pitch. It has 17 inches of IVB from a low-ish arm angle, which he gets excellent extension on. His primary secondary is a 2600-rpm, two-plane curveball at 79 mph that should be a decent offering. He also has a changeup with good depth at 83-84 and a promising gyro slider with negative vert that would likely be much better if he could add some velocity to both it and the fastballs.

He rounds out his impressive arsenal with a cutter at 87 mph that could use some optimization to increase the gyro spin. It’s a nice six-pitch mix that provides a nice backup plan should hitting not work out for him.

Will Watson, RHP, 7th Round

Watson has the rare attribute of having both a present plus sinker and a present plus fastball, in terms of stuff quality. The fastball is above average in almost every aspect: 95 mph, 18.5 inches of IVB (+3.3″ over expected) from a low slot and good extension at 6.7 feet. His rising sinker will work very well against righthanded batters. Watson’s changeup gets great fade with 16.5 inches per 0.4 seconds of ball flight at about 8-9 mph slower than the fastballs. He also has a true bullet slider with very low spin efficiency that he’ll probably want to throw closer to 85-86 mph rather than the current 81 or so. He flashed a curveball with slurvy shape at 81.

Ryan Lambert, RHP, 8th Round

Lambert has a very nice fastball. it showed great velocity at 97 mph and above average ride in the MLB Draft League (which uses the MiLB ball), suggesting the pitch shape will translate very well to pro ball. He may have room for growth with the fastball, as he currently only gets 5.6 feet of extension and spins the ball extremely well at over 2700 rpm. Lambert pairs that with a hard, bullet slider at 86 to 88 mph, which should pair very well with the vertical fastball. He has tremendous feel for spin on all his pitches, so there’s a chance for a very good starting pitcher here, with an easy fallback to a high-leverage bullpen role.

Jaxon Jelkin, RHP, 9th Round

Jaxon is a 6-foot-5 righty with a 2800-rpm slider and 2900-rpm curveball, as well as a low-slot sinker that is close to being an average pitch with some optimization. He also has a promising changeup with 18-19 inches of fade at 87 mph. I think he’s a nice blend of present stuff, with plenty to dream on given the frame and feel for spin. He didn’t sign last season when the Dodgers drafted him in the 14th round, and has yet to sign with the Mets this year. At the time of writing, indications are he won’t sign.

Brendan Girton, RHP, 10th Round

Girton features a deceptive, low-slot fastball at 93-94 mph, which tops out at 96 with about average ride given his almost 60 degree arm angle (90 degrees being fully sidearm). He pairs it with a gyro slider at 85 that likely needs to be less spin efficient, as well as a mini-sweeper that doesn’t sweep enough to be effective, though he has the arm slot to have an effective sweeper. He also flashed a hammer curve at 85 and a mediocre changeup without fade or depth at 87 mph.

Ethan Lanthier, RHP, 12th Round

Lanthier threw mostly mini-sweepers in my data set, featuring a scant 11-12 inches of sweep but promising spin rates north of 2700 rpm. The Mets likely think they can put him in the lab and develop it into a true sweeper, teaching him to be more spin efficient with the pitch. Both his fastball and sinker grade out well, given the movement profile from his low three-quarters slot and above average velocity at 94 mph. His changeup has a lot of potential, getting 17-18 inches of armside run and only six inches of vertical ride. This is a very nice pickup for the 12th round.

R.J. Gordon, RHP, 13th Round

Gordon is yet another right-handed pitcher with a fastball showing good vert (albeit a fringe-average one). It has subpar velocity at 91 mph, topping out at 94. He complements that with a two-plane curveball at 75, a gyro cutter/slider at 84-86 without standout traits and a changeup with solid depth at 82.

Tanner Witt, RHP, 14th Round

Continuing the trend of RHP with vertical fastballs, Witt represents perhaps a tad more upside if they can get him to fully tap into his 6-foot-6, 230-pound frame and throw harder than the 91 mph he averaged. It’s a fairly vertical release, and the 6.7 foot release height means his 17.5 inches of ride is roughly average given the arm slot. That said, the pitch does have promising spin at 2500 rpm. He complements it with a huge breaking ball at 77 mph that he’ll likely need to tighten up and throw harder. Its a key marker is his exceptional feel for spin at almost 2900 rpm. He also mixes in a changeup that doesn’t do much. This is a development bet on MLB bloodlines and the hope that he improves as he moves farther away from Tommy John surgery.

Owen Woodward, RHP, 15th Round

At the risk of repeating myself, Woodward has a 93-mph fastball with above- average vertical ride and good extension. He has a promising gyro slider with low spin efficiency at 85-86 and also flashed a two-plane curveball with huge spin. If this sounds a lot like some of the other pitchers on this list, you’d be correct. I don’t have data on all the Mets draftees, but the ones I do tend to have good vertical fastballs and a secondary or two with great spin rates.

Josh Blum, RHP, 16th Round

Blum changed his release point from 2023 to 2024, going from a low release to a very vertical release. This not only allowed him to throw a lot harder, it also unlocked his ability to get vertical ride on the pitch, making it an above-average offering shape-wise. It has over 20 inches of vertical at 93 mph, thought that is somewhat offset by the almost fully-overhand delivery. He throws both a gyro cutter and slider, with they cutter variant coming in about 3-4 mph harder. Both pitches show good spin rates at 2600 rpm, meaning Blum fits neatly into the archetype of pitcher the Mets appear to have been targeting on draft day.

Philadelphia Phillies

Titan Hays, RHP, 11th Round

The public Statcast data for the Phillies begins with Hays. The numbers are from 2023, but came via the MLB Draft League, which uses the same ball as MiLB. It’s a solid sinker at 94 (up to 96.5) that currently has terrible shape. It is what I would classify as a dead zone sinker, as it doesn’t leverage seam-shifted wake effects at all, nor does it rise enough to be a useful whiff pitch. This, however, is something that can be addressed with pro pitching development.

A.J. Wilson, LHP, 12th Round

Wilson has a very weird four-seam fastball that gets less ride than the sinker variant,. That said, if we classified it as a sinker, which it probably is, it would grade out pretty well thanks to tremendous vertical movement deviation (movement that deviates from what the spin axis would predict). It is only about 91-92 mph, but comes from an extremely low slot at roughly 75 degrees. I think it’s a very interesting pitch, though it’s hard to make a sinker work against opposite handed batters, as sinkers have a large platoon split. He pairs it with a sweeping slider with very good feel for spin at 2750 rpm, but not enough sweep at present. With proper pitching lab development, Wilson could be a useful lefty, one-inning guy.

Tegan Cain, RHP, 13th Round

Cain has an intriguing sinker, with almost 20 inches of armside run at 93 mph (up to 95.5 MPH). It’s an average or better pitch from a pure stuff perspective at present, and he pairs it with a very promising changeup with huge depth (almost zero inches of ride) and good fade. He had one gyro slider in my dataset that graded out quite well, as well as two sweepers that showed potential. This is a very interesting arm to get in the 13th round. He could be a very good against righty-heavy lineups and perhaps more if he can develop the changeup into a true weapon. This is easily my favorite late-round pick of the Phillies draft class.

Luke Gabrysh, RHP, 15th Round

Gabrysh features a power sinker at 95 mph (up to 97) , that is pretty close shape-wise to being a good pitch. He’ll need to learn how to leverage seam-shifted wake effects, as I have the pitch with little-to-no movement deviation from the spin axis. He’s now the fourth-straight low-slot sinker guy I’m writing up, and, much like the Mets list above, this would appear to be a trait the Phillies think they know how to develop. The rest of his data points are messy, but they indicate that he throws a gyro slider and a changeup.

Eli Trop, RHP, 16th Round

Finally, I get to write about a pitcher with the same name as me, though his is probably pronounced Eli as in Manning, whereas mine is pronounced Elly, as in De La Cruz. I wish he was a more exciting prospect, but alas, he is not. He is, however, yet another low-slot (basically completely sidearm) righty that has a sinker with no movement deviation that the Phillies are going to look to develop. His data is from 2023 only.

Ryan Degges, RHP, 17th Round

Degges is another low-slot righty, but he has both a quality rising sinker at 94 mph and a pretty good four-seam fastball at 94 with about 1-2 inches of ride over expected given his low slot. He flashed both a gyro slider and a mini-sweeper, though both will need shape tweaks. He rounds it out with a depth-y changeup at 86.

Erik Ritchie, RHP, 19th Round

Ritchie is a high-slot lefty who throws a four-seam fastball at 89 mph as his primary pitch. However, in 2023, he had a lower slot and showed a sinker. Neither variant has good shape, though his slider in 2023 showed tremendous potential at over 3000 rpm, which would be elite. I think the Phillies will try to get him back to his 2023 slot and lean into the slider and back to throwing the sinker. His spin rates on his 2023 fastball was also fantastic, sitting around 2600 rpm.

Washington Nationals

Jackson Kent, LHP, 4th Round

Kent has a dead zone fastball with subpar ride at only 91 mph. However, he has a good changeup with depth that generated a lot of whiffs and a gyro slider at 84 mph with extremely low estimated spin efficiency, among the lowest in the public Statcast data set. He mixes in a gryo curve at 76, a low spin efficiency pitch and negative seven inches of IVB. The Nationals are betting on the athlete here, as he played wide receiver and quarterback in high school.

Robert Cranz, RHP, 7th Round

Cranz has a great four-seam fastball, with his IVB/Flight sitting at No. 1 overall in the public Statcast data despite below average extension. His velocity jumped from 2023 where he sat 90-91 to 93 mph this season, topping out at 96 mph. He pairs that with a 2650-rpm gyro slider that he needs lower spin efficiency with and a 2750-rpm curveball with two-plane break. This is the archetype of pitcher that I am most partial to: A very vertical fastball with great shape, a gyro slider and feel for spin.

Luke Johnson, RHP, 10th Round

Johnson will need to throw a lot harder than the 87 mph he averaged to be a viable prospect. He signed for $2K and was likely a strategic move to give the Nationals bonus pool flexibility. From a pure stuff perspective, unlikely that he’d get drafted, so it’s a nice win-win, where he gets a shot to play in a professional organization.

Yoel Tejeda, RHP, 14th Round

Tejeda is a 6-foot-8 righty with a low arm slot and very good velocity at 94-95 mph on both his sinker and fastball variants. He also has enormous extension, at over 7.3 feet. He mixes in a gyro slider at 82-83 that will need some work and more velocity. I love the potential, given the huge frame and present velocity, albeit without standout movement.

Gavin Bruni, LHP, 17th Round

Bruni is a slider specialist, but the slider isn’t particularly great. He pairs it with a 91-mph fastball with about average ride given his vertical arm slot. He was up to 96 in high school, and if he can find that kind of velocity again, he might be a viable prospect.

The post NL East Draft Picks With The Most Intriguing Statcast Pitch Data appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

It is important to note that the dataset is incomplete. Pitchers may or may not translate their pitch shapes directly from college baseball to the majors due to differences in the baseballs, as well as potential differences in data quality and measurement. If a pitcher isn’t included here, it’s because there wasn’t any Statcast data.

We’ll also be looking at things primarily through a “stuff” lens. Namely, those pitch shapes that have the potential to work in the major leagues. This is inspired by the countless examples of unheralded college pitchers who take huge leaps once they hit a major league development system.

More Intriguing Statcast Pitch Data

• AL East
• AL Central

Houston Astros

Parker Smith, RHP, 4th Round

Smith is the only Astros draftee for whom we have public data, and I think he’s quite an interesting arm. His main pitch was a sinker, which currently gets a lot of arm side movement and should be a good weapon against righthanded batters. What makes him interesting is that he might also be a high-vert four-seam fastball guy, as the two-pitch sample has him at 18.5 inches of IVB/flight (0.4 seconds). His slider got great results, but it’s somewhere between a true gyro and a sweeper, so there’s likely going to be some pitch shape optimization that will happen there. He rounds it out with a changeup that showed 19 inches of fade at 87 MPH. It will be interesting to see how the Astros manage his arsenal going forward.

Los Angeles Angels

Chris Cortez, RHP, 2nd Round

Cortez’ calling card is velocity, as he averages 96.5 mph with the fastball. But it’s not going to be a plus pitch given the shape, which only gets 12 inches of ride. He has a lower arm slot, so he may be a good candidate to switch to a sinker. His slider gets about 10-11 inches of sweep at 84-85 mph and generated a lot of whiffs. It’s not a true sweeper, so he may need some instruction on shape optimization. The changeup showed solid fade and good depth. Given the platoon-ish nature of the sweeper and changeup, he’ll need to develop a gyro slider or curveball to round out the arsenal.

Ryan Prager, LHP, 3rd Round

Prager looks like he will not sign with the Angels, unfortunately, as I think he’s an exciting prospect. While the fastball only sits at 91 mph, it gets a ton of ride at 21 inches from a three-quarters slot, which is more than three inches above the MLB average for that slot (note that the college baseball will get more ride, so this may be closer to one inch with the minor league baseball). Even at that velocity, It’s an excellent pitch, and any velocity gains would make it plus or better. He pairs it with a hard gyro slider that features about a seven mph velocity gap to the fastball and a tremendous 20 inches of vertical separation from the fastball. If you’ve read my work, you’ll know this is an archetype I adore, and it’s disappointing that the Angels couldn’t sign him. Some profiles will tick up a little with a velocity bump, this one becomes an easy first round talent if he adds 3 mph.

Austin Gordon, RHP, 4th Round

I have 23 pitches of eye-popping data for Austin Gordon, starting with 95-mph fastball with 19 inches of vertical ride, which is 3-4 above expected. He pairs it with a gyro cutter/slider that should be a plus pitch at 86-87 mph. It’s a nice two-pitch mix for what looks like a classic relief profile at present, but we’ll see if the Angels try to add a third pitch and develop him as a starter.

Peyton Olejnik, RHP, 6th Round

Olejnik is a 6-foot-11 righthander that might still be growing, as he was listed at 6-foot-10 a year ago, and our player page has him as 6-foot-9. He only started four games in college, but he got five more starts in the MLB Draft League.

Despite his height, he only gets 6.3 feet of extension. Still, his 15-16 inches of fastball ride will play up based on his arm slot, though that can be hard to pinpoint exactly with players this tall. He’s extremely lean, so there is potential for him to start throwing a lot harder as he fills out and learns how to better connect his mechanics through the kinetic chain. The pitch might be fringe-average at its current 92 mph, but Olejnik is the very definition of projectable.

He also throws a sinker that might be ok as a situational weapon, but he should probably be focusing on the four-seam fastball. His changeup gets great depth and almost 15 inches of fade, making it a promising pitch, while his sweeper slider will need a little more velocity and either go full sweeper or full gyro. The slider has good spin at 2700 rpm. This is an excellent upside pick. Get this kid in a major league weight room, and see what happens.

Bridger Holmes, RHP, 7th Round

Holmes is a side-arming righty that throws sliders and curveballs from a weird angle. He gets an elite 2900 rpm on his slider. Every once in a while, one of these guys makes it to the majors as a specialist.

Fran Oschell, RHP, 12th Round

Oschell is huge dude, standing 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds. He had a much worse season this year compared to 2023, both of which he he pitched as a reliever. In 2023, he was dominant, pitching to a 0.69 ERA with 66 strikeouts in 39 inning. This year, his ERA ballooned to 6.94, with only 22 Ks in 23 innings.

Sadly, that never happened for him, as he was stuck in the bullpen all year. The underlying traits remain the same: A 94-mph fastball with plus ride (19.5 inches IVB/F) and a true gyro slider with very low spin efficiency that could use a couple of ticks of velocity. I love the upside here and hope he gets the shot to start in the minor leagues.

Najer Victor, RHP, 14th Round

If there’s one consistent trend in this draft class, it’s four-seam fastballs with plus ride. Victor is no exception. He averaged 96-97 mph with his fastball from a lower slot, and it profiles as at least an average pitch from a stuff perspective. He throws both a gyro cutter and a gyro slider, with the latter needing more velocity and higher gyro spin.

Oakland Athletics

Gage Jump, LHP, CB-B

Gage is a 6-foot tall lefty with a 93-94 mph fastball that gets about 2 inches more ride than expected with the college baseball. He mostly throws his rising sinker, though I think they’ll favor the four-seamer in pro ball. It’s a solid, if not exciting primary offering, and I’m not sure how much you can project Gage to have a velocity jump. The slider is interesting, getting negative vert, but without standout fastball velocity, it won’t grade out very well. He also mixes in a two-plane curveball at 77 mph. He did fairly well coming back from injury, so perhaps there is more in the tank as he gets further away from surgery.

Sam Stuhr, RHP, 5th Round

Stuhr’s feature pitch is gyro cutter with almost pure estimated gyro spin, which he throws with great velocity at 87 mph. It’s the kind of pitch that I’d be extremely excited about if his fastball had decent shape, which, unfortunately, it does not. It’s a 94-mph “dead-zone” fastball with only 15 inches of ride from a very vertical slot. If they can fix the lack of ride, it should pair extremely well with the gyro cutter.

He mixes in a gyro slurve at 80 mph, but it might just be a slower version of his cutter, as he also throws a gyro slider around three mph slower than his cutter. It’s a solid package, but I’m not overly optimistic about this pick, as fixing fastball ride is one of the more difficult developmental challenges for a pitcher.

Josiah Romeo, RHP, 6th Round

Romeo is a rare high school pitcher for which we Statcast data. In fact, we have two seasons of data on him, which shows promising growth in fastball velocity for the 6-foot-4 hurler from Canada. In 2023, his fastball averaged 88.6 mph with subpar shape. This year, it kept the same mediocre shape but was all the way up to 91.5 mph. The encouraging aspect here is the velocity gains, which he’ll need to keep adding to be a viable prospect.

Likely due to the fastball having poor shape, he switched to a sinker-first approach, which might be a better fit for him. The pitch isn’t great shape-wise, but that should be fixable as he learns to leverage seam-shifted wake effects, which should make the pitch more horizontal and add a bunch of depth.

He pairs it with a true gyro slider featuring very low estimated spin efficiency and ingredients to pair well with the four-seam fastball, should he continue to throw that. He mixes in a changeup without fade or depth that got a few whiffs. I wouldn’t classify Romeo as having huge upside, but he’s interesting if he can continue to add velocity.

According to our Geoff Pontes, the commissioner of the MLB Draft League informed him that they use the Rawlings MiLB ball, so that means we can more comfortably translate MLB Draft League pitch shapes without worrying about differences in the ball.

Kyle Robinson, RHP, 11th Round

Robinson started for Texas Tech this year and has a starter’s frame at 6-foot-6, 210 pounds. This is an upside play for a pitcher that ranked as our No. 101 prospect heading into the draft. As noted in the report, his fastball gets solid ride, but is offset by the very vertical delivery. His present 93 mph velocity has potential to grow as he fills out, but he’s likely maxed out in terms of ride, as he doesn’t have feel for spin. Thought the changeup has worked well for him against lefties, I’m more intrigued by the slider, which has low estimated spin efficiency at 85 mph. He’ll mix in a two-plane curveball to round out his four-pitch arsenal.

Ryan Magdic, LHP, 14th Round

While Magdic’s sinker sits below 90 mph, he gets great 17-inch ride from a very low slot. It actually grades out very well as sinker according to my latest modeling of sinkers, as it maximizes movement. I’m not sure I buy it, but the shape of the pitch is very good, so if he finds some velocity, it might be a good pitch. He also mixed in a slider and changeup, but it all hinges on whether his sinker will play at the next level. I’m very curious to see if it will.

Blake Hammond, RHP, 15th Round

We close out the Athletics list with Hammond, who sports a 90-91 mph fastball with poor shape and a gyro slider that is interesting, if we’re to believe the negative six inches of IVB on the pitch. It’s a tough profile to make work, but a true gyro slider with that kind of vert could be good. It’s mostly classified as a curveball, despite the low spin efficiency.

Seattle Mariners

Hunter Cranton, RHP, 3rd Round

Cranton features a high-spin fastball at 2550 rpm with over 18 inches of induced vertical break from a low release point, giving him well-above average ride on the pitch. The only negative is his below-average extension, which may or may not be fixable. Added extension is correlated with increased vertical ride, so there’s potentially some gains to be had there. It’s a phenomenal starting point for a pitching prospect, with an easy plus grade on the pitch from a stuff perspective. He also has a plus sinker, giving him a good situational weapon against righthanded opponents.

He pairs those pitches with a gyro slider and cutter, each with distinct shapes feel for spin at 2600-2700 rpm. All this in an ideal 6-foot-3, 215-pound frame? This is fantastic clay, and not even the most exciting arm taken by the Mariners.

Charlie Beilenson, RHP, 5th Round

Beilenson has started precisely zero games at the collegiate level, but to my analytical eyes, he looks like a starter with a true five or six-pitch mix. He was dominant this year pitching in two-inning spurts, striking out 92 over 62 innings with only 18 walks. But what makes him intriguing is his arsenal.

I’m going to make a bold prediction here: Beilenson will be given a shot to be a starter and will be a very good one.

Let me take you through why I think that will occur. It all starts with a very analytically-friendly fastball that gets about average or better ride when adjusting for his low arm slot. As with Hunter Cranton, he only gets 5.7 feet of extension on the pitch, so there may be room for optimization here. I find this to be very intriguing as a trend, as it stands in stark contrast to the Yankees, who drafted lots of pitchers with 7 feet or more of release extension. In a vacuum, I’d say this pitch would grade out as average at best, but I think there’s room for small gains that will help it get to plus.

He has an incredible splitter (listed as a changeup) that gets zero inches of vert, which actually means it has downward vertical movement when accounting for drag. He absolutely kills the spin on the pitch, and still gets about 12 inches of fade along with tremendous depth. It will also help the fastball play up a little. I love a good splitter.

He has a hard riding cutter at 87 mph that has a distinct pitch shape but will likely need less ride to be a proper gyro cutter shape. His fourth pitch is a gyro slider with zero inches of vert and seven inches of sweep that also looks to be a small tweak away from being a viable MLB pitch shape. His sinker grades out as nearly average, despite only 92 mph of velocity and will give him a good situational weapon against righthanded batters. Finally, we have a 79-mph curveball with two-plane break. That’s a sizable pitch arsenal if you count the one curveball, with at least five of the offerings having potential to be viable pitches.

I think the Mariners see a lot of little tweaks they can make with this player, which in the aggregate will potentially make him a very valuable arm, and one that I think should be given a chance to start.

Brock Moore, RHP, 7th Round

I absolutely love this pick, and I’m flabbergasted how an arm this good doesn’t get nabbed earlier, given some of the other pitchers I’ve written up that were drafted well before him. I get that he’s only ever been a reliever, but the nine pitches of data I have are glorious.

For data, I have two fastballs, which got 19 inches of IVB from a 5.5-foot release height. That is an astounding 5.4 inches inches above expected given the release characteristics, with the cherry on top being the 99 mph velocity. Those pitches are likely outliers, but if we look at the ones classified as sinkers, we still get plus-three inches of IVB at 99 MPH. That’s an easy plus-plus pitch from a stuff perspective from a guy with a massive 6-foot-6, 230-pound frame. The slider data is potentially even more impressive, with zero inches of vert and 17 inches of sweep at 84 mph. That would be a tremendous sweeper and extremely rare for a guy with this much vert.

Geoff Pontes shared some of the Trackman data on Moore with me, and that is also quite spectacular, showing a changeup with 19 inches of fade, as well as a massive two-plane curveball. Moore is a “Stuff Monster” and an absolutely massive talent to dream on. I can’t wait to see what the Mariners do with this kid.

Christian Little, RHP, 11th Round

How about a 6-foot-4, 235-pound pitcher with a 95-96 mph fastball and 20 inches of vert falling into your laps in the 11th round? Welcome to the Mariners 2024 draft class! For a lot of draft classes, I’m often trying very hard to discern what the team was targeting when they select a player. With the Mariners, however, it’s usually pretty easy to see. Little continues the trend of pitchers with short extension, reinforcing my theory that they feel this is low hanging fruit to fix and get some easy pitch quality gains.

Wyatt Lunsford-Shenkman, RHP, 16th Round

On the surface, this looks like a very poor pick, as Wyatt only averaged 88-89 mph on his pitches. However, he dropped his release point from about 6.4 feet to 5.8 feet and was closer to 91 mph with the higher arm slot. His pitch data in 2023 wasn’t exciting either, but his sinker could perhaps be worked into a viable pitch. Still, compared to the pitchers above, this is not a very exciting pick.

Texas Rangers

David Hagaman, RHP, 4th Round

Hagaman was the Rangers’ first pitcher selected, and he sports a solid arsenal, though my data is from 2023. He has a 92-mph fastball with 18 inches of IVB/flight and over seven feet of extension, which will map to a roughly average pitch with the MiLB ball. The headline pitch is his bullet slider, which has the third-lowest estimated spin efficiency in the the data set. Despite the below-average velocity, his sinker looks like a solid pitch, as well, mostly due to its large total movement profile. The rising sinker is a tricky pitch to master, so he may only use it situationally. He rounds out his arsenal with a changeup that gets 16 inches of fade and decent depth. This is a “safe” profile, and one that will likely need a jump in velocity to be an impact arm.

Anthony Susac, RHP, 8th Round

Susac’s slider is a great pitch thanks to its depth and a high percentage of gyro spin. He pairs it with a potentially fringe-average fastball featuring good velocity at 94.7 mph, but only 15 inches of ride, which is below-average even given his arm slot. This is a profile that might play well in the bullpen, where he can use his slider as the primary weapon.

Dalton Pence, LHP, 11th Round

Pence’s pitch quality improved from 2023 to 2024, gaining almost two full ticks on the fastball, while adding 0.5 inches of ride. I’m not sure there’s a second pitch here based on the data I have, but the fastball is a decent starting point with 19-plus inches of vert at 92-93 mph.

Eric Loomis, RHP, 16th Round

Loomis features a 94-mph sinker from a low 4.7-foot arm slot with 15 inches of arm-side run. It might be a viable pitch if they can tweak the shape to be even more horizontal. He pairs that with a mini-sweeper that isn’t a great present pitch and a four-seam fastball that actually had pretty decent ride given the almost side-arm delivery (albeit in a sample of only one pitch). His arm angle is roughly 75-80 degrees, with 90 degrees being parallel to the ground. There’s some potential here for being a useful bullpen arm with a power sinker to be used in an inning that features multiple righthanded batters.

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The following observations are based on NCAA performance and Statcast numbers from 2024. Due to the lack of consistent Trackman samples for prep picks, we will not discuss any high school draftees. 

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