2024 MLB Mock Draft 6.0: New Predictions For First 39 Picks
Happy draft weekend to all who celebrate!
It’s been a long time coming, but in just a few days we’ll finally see who the Guardians tab as the organization’s first ever No. 1 overall pick. I feel no more certainty about who that player will be today than I did in each of the past two iterations of the MLB mock draft, and many teams picking behind them have frustratingly admitted the same.
READ MORE ABOUT THE DRAFT
- Final BA 500 draft board
- The nine nastiest pitches in the 2024 draft
- Where the top draft prospects could rank in the Top 100
- Finding pro pitching comps for the top college arms
- WATCH: Carlos Collazo, Keith Law & Shooter Hunt break down the draft
Most of the buzz throughout the first round this week has been about college hitters. As teams picking in the middle and back of the first round finalize their draft boards, many have begun to wonder if their top college hitting targets will make it to their picks. There’s plenty of concern about all the other demographics if not.
My assumption for a long time has been that the first round will be extremely college hitter-heavy. As such, this latest mock draft has 17 college hitters among the first 30 picks. I’m also anticipating plenty of underslot deals in the first round, but as one scout pointed out to me: “Who are we going to use the savings on?”
Let’s get into it below.
1. Guardians — JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
The top three players on our final BA 500 board—Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana and JJ Wetherholt—feel like the most likely options for Cleveland at this point. As I have mentioned previously, I think the final group of players Cleveland is considering for this pick is larger than people might think, with players like Jac Caglianone and Konnor Griffin possibly still in consideration even if I think they are less likely options.
My gut feel is that both Wetherholt and Bazzana are more likely for Cleveland than Condon. Wetherholt’s realistic floor in the draft is perhaps a bit lower than Bazzana’s because he might be willing to take more of a discount, but if Cleveland views the two as equivalent on talent, it’s a pick that makes sense strategically as they attempt to maximize their huge bonus pool throughout the entirety of the draft.
2. Reds — Charlie Condon, OF, Georgia
The favorites for the Reds seem to be Condon, Jac Caglianone and Chase Burns. There are few teams who have scouted and signed as many players from Florida at the top of the draft as the Reds, and Caglianone’s strong finish to the season impressed plenty of high-level decision makers. That has possibly narrowed the gap between Condon and Caglianone, though I am still leaning toward the player ranked at the top of the board who has more defensive value and a more advanced hit tool.
While Burns seems to be in consideration here, I’ve consistently heard the Reds are more likely to take a bat with this pick. It’s hard to fully discount Bazzana and Wetherholt, though both players feel less likely than the big sluggers.
3. Rockies — Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
I’ve heard the same three players linked most heavily to the Reds also linked to the Rockies, though with Colorado I believe Condon and Burns would be the priorities over Caglianone. If Condon happens to be available, I think he might be the pick. But if they are deciding between Burns, Caglianone and Bazzana, I’m leaning with Burns, who has now been the pick for the Rockies for five straight consecutive mocks. Surely I can will this one into existence… right?
4. A’s — Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
If the Guardians pass on Bazzana, it seems like there’s a real path to him falling here to the A’s, and I’m not sure an underslot deal would make more sense for the club than taking arguably the best player in the class with the fourth overall pick. Oakland has been tied to college bats at this spot all spring. It makes some sense that they jump on a premium hitter this year since they won’t pick any higher than 10th overall for next year’s draft.
Caglianone and Wetherholt could make sense here, as well, if Bazzana is gone. Oakland is frequently tied to underslot options, with the two primary names being Braden Montgomery and Nick Kurtz. In my previous mock, I mentioned that Kurtz to the A’s was not being talked about as much as earlier in the spring. That seems to have picked up again in the last few days, and if Kurtz has a real chance to slide into the teens that could make sense for his camp.
5. White Sox — Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
The White Sox get linked to more players than any other team inside the top five (except perhaps Cleveland, interestingly). This could be a bit of a pivot point in the draft. The best available player on the board in this scenario is Caglianone, who has been tied to the White Sox in recent days. Any of the players in front of this pick could make sense for the White Sox if they are available, though Wetherholt seems like the most likely option to get here if he doesn’t go first with Cleveland. I think they’d happily scoop him up, if so.
It sounds like the White Sox are considering both the top high school hitters in the class, and my guess is that Konnor Griffin would be the preference over Rainer at this spot, though I am not confident in that guess. It’s difficult to rule out Hagen Smith here, as well.
6. Royals — Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
I’ve oscillated between Hagen Smith and Bryce Rainer for the Royals in my last few mocks, but I’m going back to the college lefthander. Scouting director Brian Bridges aggressively targeted pitchers in his previous tenure with the Braves, and there’s a thought that the Royals as an organization value lefthanded pitching as much as anyone.
If Caglianone is available here, it’s difficult to see him getting beyond this pick. If both Caglianone and Smith are off the board—a scenario that seems unlikely to me—I would lean toward Rainer. This also could be another landing spot for Wetherholt if he is available, though I’m guessing all the other players I’ve mentioned would be ahead of him.
7. Cardinals — Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.
Flipping Hagen Smith and Bryce Rainer at picks six and seven has as much to do with the Cardinals as it does the Royals. There’s been a bit more buzz about Rainer being the pick at this spot in recent days. If the first six picks go like this, I’m guessing he’s the pick. It feels like Rainer should come off the board somewhere in the 6-12 range.
Like I mentioned previously, I believe the Cardinals would think hard about both Smith and Burns if they were available. They’re also a team I have linked to Braden Montgomery, Nick Kurtz and Konnor Griffin. If Kurtz doesn’t go No. 4 to the A’s, this might be his second-earliest landing spot. I’m guessing Trey Yesavage starts becoming an option for teams as soon as the top two college arms are off the board.
8. Angels — Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
The Angels feel like one of the trickiest teams to handle in the mock draft, given the huge number of players linked to them and the perception in the industry that they are going to continue targeting fast-moving college players who can get to the majors quickly (with rumors of underslot options that fit that category, as well).
Montgomery is tied to the Angels as much as the A’s inside the top 10 picks. This feels like a legitimate potential landing spot for him. If that’s not the pick, I could see the Angels going for college hitters like Christian Moore or James Tibbs III. Trey Yesavage also fits the bill as a quick-to-the-majors option if the team wants to take a pitcher. There’s less talk about either of the top two high school hitters at this spot, though Cam Caminiti sounds like a legitimate option despite the fact that he doesn’t fit the “fast-moving” designation. Nick Kurtz would, but his name doesn’t come up much here and perhaps that’s because the team just took Nolan Schanuel a year ago.
9. Pirates — Konnor Griffin, OF/SS, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss.
Konnor Griffin and Nick Kurtz are the last two players available of the group of 10 that most teams have at the top of their boards. I’ve heard Pittsburgh linked with both players, though the high school hitters in particular get a lot of buzz. For many, that’s the expected demographic for the Pirates if they are available.
Second-tier college bats like James Tibbs and Christian Moore get some mentions at this spot just like the Angels at No. 8, and Trey Yesavage could be a fit if they want an arm. I haven’t heard Cam Caminiti’s name mentioned here a ton, but I wouldn’t rule him out either.
10. Nationals — Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Washington spent a lot of time on both the top high school hitters in the class, but if the mock pans out this way, neither of those players will reach them. Kurtz would be the best player available on talent. If they want a pitcher Yesavage both makes sense and has been linked to the Nationals, as he has been for many teams in the 8-15 range.
This is around the range where the board is going to open up in a hurry, though there are a handful of consistent names that get linked sooner than others, which you’ll see in the next few picks.
11. Tigers — Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS, Scottsdale, Ariz.
Caminiti has been so aggressively linked to the Tigers in the public space that some in the industry are wondering if it’s purely smoke. At the same time, most people I’ve spoken with saw Detroit aggressively scouting Caminiti throughout the spring, and it doesn’t make much sense to me to fake it that hard just to create some misdirection at pick 11.
So I’ll stick with Caminiti here as the first prep pitcher off the board though others like Tibbs, Moore and Yesavage all make some sense, as well. There aren’t many obvious high school hitters who could make sense for Detroit if they want to make similar picks to their 2023 class. I suppose Slade Caldwell could make some sense, though I haven’t heard his name linked here or this high on the board in general.
12. Red Sox — Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
I’ve had North Carolina outfielder Vance Honeycutt tied to this spot frequently throughout the spring. I think the Red Sox still like him, but most feedback I get has the tooled-up center fielder going further down the board. Yesavage is another name I think the Red Sox would like. This might be a perfect pairing of talent and organizational need. He’s the best available player on the draft board and the gap between him and whoever the next college arm is feels significant.
It sounds like Boston would love for one of the top 10 to fall down to this pick. If that happens, they could scoop them up, though I still am not sure if they would grab Kurtz. That’s not an option in this scenario, but it could easily happen on draft day. It’s just hard to predict that happening. Names like James Tibbs III, Christian Moore, Carson Benge and Cam Smith start to pick up tons of steam at this pick and right after.
13. Giants — Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
Moore has legitimate landing spots inside the first 10 picks, so it’s no guarantee he makes it this far. If he does, the Giants sound like a team who could be all over him, as he was one of the most productive hitters in the SEC for three years. Other options include Cam Caminiti if he’s on the board, potentially Vance Honeycutt because the organization liked him out of high school, Trey Yesavage or Carson Benge.
Something to consider for the Giants is that they don’t pick again until the fourth round. Their $7.5 million bonus pool is lower than every team picking around them, so they could be less well-positioned to scoop up someone sliding out of the top 10. If they like someone a bit further down the board—say, New Jersey high school shortstop Luke Dickerson, for example—they’ll need to take him here if they want him.
The next 10 picks or so could easily be a run on the best available college hitters.
14. Cubs — James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State
The Cubs are linked with college performers at this spot, and there’s no shortage of options including Tibbs, Carson Benge, Cam Smith and Ryan Waldschmidt.
Increasingly, they’ve been tied to Stanford catcher Malcolm Moore, and it feels like this spot could be his high-water mark in the draft, though I’m guessing that would be on a deal. Another option I’ve heard for the Cubs here is Florida high school shortstop Kellon Lindsey, who they apparently also like quite a bit and might not make it to their second pick at 54.
15. Mariners — Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State
Trey Yesavage is not on the board in this scenario, but if he were, I think he’d be the likely pick, as I think this is about the floor for the ECU righthander. Mississippi State switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje could be an option if the team is adamant about going for an arm and doesn’t view any of the high school pitchers at the same sort of tier. In that same line of thinking, Brecht could be a fit if Seattle can stomach his control issues this high.
Outside of those arms, I’ve heard Benge’s name linked with Seattle. He is getting more and more play in the top 15 range, and I expect him to go in a decent spot. Others like Cam Smith, Seaver King and Ryan Waldschmidt could make sense, too. Slade Caldwell is intriguing but hasn’t gotten a ton of buzz. The Mariners don’t strike me as a high school pitching team in the first round, though Ryan Sloan’s name has been mentioned.
16. Marlins — Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
Essentially all of the college hitters who are tied to Seattle are also tied to the Marlins, and I’m mostly hearing about college bats this year for Miami. Smith, Seaver King, Caleb Lomavita and Ryan Waldschmidt all seem to make a lot of sense.
They could be a team interested in Alabama high school shortstop Carter Johnson, though I’m not sure if that is specifically for this pick or in the second round.
17. Brewers — Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
In recent years, the Brewers have targeted college hitters who make strong swing decisions in the first round, and Waldschmidt certainly checks that box. He’s a polarizing player in the industry, though many analytically-inclined teams who are picking in the 15-25 range seem quite high on him, and he keeps getting more and more buzz higher up the board.
I wonder if Honeycutt would be an option here because the Brewers have also taken some shots on riskier profiles with tools (Garrett Mitchell in 2020)). That said, none of their recent first-round hitters had the same contact questions that Honeycutt does. This could be one of the higher landing spots for Caleb Lomavita, as well, and potentially a fit for Malcolm Moore.
18. Rays — Jurrangelo Cijntje, BHP, Mississippi State
For most teams, Cijntje is the consensus No. 4 college arm on the board, and I expect him to go somewhere in the 15-25 range with a number of teams excited about him. I’d expect the Rays to be in on all sorts of profiles, including the top college hitters available (Seaver King, Vance Honeycutt, Caleb Lomavita), the top high school hitters (Slade Caldwell, Theo Gillen) and the high school pitchers who start to gain traction in the 20s (Ryan Sloan, Kash Mayfield, Braylon Doughty).
19. Mets — Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State
I’ve previously had Culpepper going in the supplemental round, but increasingly it seems like teams expect him to go in the first thanks to everyone scooping up college hitters. He has the advantage of profiling at shortstop—something none of the other college hitters in this range can claim except Seaver King—and has solid offensive tools, athleticism and big arm strength.
Carson Benge would make sense if he’s still on the board, and other hitters like Seaver King, Tommy White or Vance Honeycutt could bet a fit, as well. The Mets have targeted up-the-middle profiles in recent years, but under David Stearns perhaps their player preferences will now be more similar to what the Brewers have done.
20. Blue Jays — Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
Aside from the Cubs, Moore is most frequently tabbed with the Blue Jays. Despite a season that was worse than either of the other two college catchers (Lomavita and Janek) and more defensive questions, he might have a real shot to be the first catcher selected.
The Blue Jays also could be around the high-water mark for right-right corner sluggers who might be sliding a bit, including Tommy White and Billy Amick. Or they could go in an entirely different direction with the speedy, contact-oriented prep hitter Slade Caldwell.
21. Twins — Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest
King has been connected to plenty of teams throughout the teens, so there’s a decent chance he’s gone before this pick. If not, he could have the sort of athleticism, bat-to-ball skills and power that Minnesota might like at an up-the-middle position. He’ll need to tame his aggressive approach, but every college hitter in this range comes with flaws.
The Twins are picking in a range where righthander Brody Brecht might make sense on talent, though I don’t expect the Twins to be one of the teams taking a shot on him in the first round.
22. Orioles — Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
Brody Brecht does get linked with the Orioles. Some teams think they would be willing to take a chance on his upside, though with a player like Vance Honeycutt falling to them, perhaps his collection of tools, athleticism and defensive profile is too good to pass up. Baltimore’s hitting development might be a dream scenario for Honeycutt, as well.
Kaelen Culpepper is frequently tied to the Orioles. If he’s available, he might make more sense with their first pick than their second (as I previously projected), but he’s not in this version. Catchers Caleb Lomavita and Malcolm Moore have also been tied to the Orioles.
23. Dodgers — Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (Okla.) HS
The Dodgers would be another good player development fit for a high-upside hitter like Vance Honeycutt, but he’s off the board right in front of them. Los Angeles has fewer picks and pool money to play with than most teams in this range, and they are frequently tied to high school profiles and athletes. Kash Mayfield fits in the 20s with the best delivery in the draft. This feels like the starting point for William Schmidt, as well (though there have been more questions about just how signable he might be recently).
I would be surprised if the Dodgers took a corner profile like Tommy White or Billy Amick with this pick. High school shortstops like Theo Gillen or Kellon Lindsey could make sense, and they are also one of the teams linked to Luke Dickerson. If Cinjtje is available, he could be a fit, too. If the Dodgers do want a college hitter to fall, they might be right on the outside looking in.
24. Braves — Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
Many of the players I’ve heard tied to the Braves (Carson Benge, Ryan Waldschmidt, Jurrangelo Cijntje) simply aren’t available and unless they want to take one of the two available college catchers (Lomavita or Janek), there aren’t many appealing college hitter profiles to choose from after a huge run on that demographic from 13-22.
That could lead to a college arm like Brecht, or perhaps another college (or high school) arm from further down the board on an underslot deal. They’ve used that strategy in the past, and names like Braylon Doughty, Luke Holman, Bryce Cunningham, Ben Hess and Levi Sterling could all be interesting fits.
25. Padres — Caleb Lomavita, C, California
Each and every top high school player available should be in consideration here considering San Diego’s draft history, though it does seem like they (along with the teams in front of them) could be hoping a college bat falls to them. Even though it feels wrong to mock a college player to the Padres, it sounds like they could be considering him. He’s more athletic than your typical catcher, which might help his cause. Walker Janek could also fit, and f Kaelen Culpepper makes it to this point on the board, he could make sense for San Diego, as well.
If it’s a status quo San Diego draft, I would think about Theo Gillen, Ryan Sloan, Kash Mayfield if available, William Schmidt, Kellon Lindsy and perhaps Luke Dickerson.
26. Yankees — Luke Dickerson, SS, Morris Knolls HS, Rockaway, N.J.
I’ll stick with Luke Dickerson here for the Yankees. I previously mentioned that they are one of the hotter teams on the New Jersey prep shortstop, but there are plenty of others noted in this mock draft, and he just might not make it back to their second round pick at 53.
Big power-hitting profiles are also tied to New York, including Tommy White, Billy Amick, Dakota Jordan and Tennessee first baseman Blake Burke.
27. Phillies — Theo Gillen, SS, Westlake HS, Austin, Tex.
A few weeks ago, I would have expected Gillen to be off the board before this pick, but the latest intel on college hitters being prioritized in front of Philadelphia could mean the club winds up with another offensive-oriented prep hitter falling into their lap at the back of the first round. Gillen’s hit/power combination is one of the best in the high school ranks, and he’s athletic enough to handle second or center field if/when he needs to move off shortstop.
The Phillies are tied to prep arms Kash Mayfield (who’s not on the board) and Ryan Sloan (who could have a big price tag), and if Brody Brecht is available here, I think he makes some sense.
28. Astros — Tyson Lewis, SS, Millard West HS, Omaha, Neb.
Any of the college hitters still around could be interesting fits for the Astros, though most of them now are power-oriented college profiles, including Tommy White and Billy Amick, who have a chance to slide out of the first round. White would be the pick for me here since he’s available. Houston is one of the teams most commonly tied to him, but I have heard recently that Nebraska prep shortstop Tyson Lewis could be a real option for them at this spot.
29. D-backs — Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS, Wauchula, Fla.
Arizona is one of the teams tied to both Kash Mayfield and Luke Dickerson, but both are off the board in this scenario. It’s worth noting that Arizona has tons of pool money compared to every team picking from 18-on and could maybe drive a player down past the teams in front of them with a bigger bonus, especially if their target was a high school player. High schoolers are just easier to slide down the board for bonuses than their college peers.
In the past, Arizona has taken a hitters with bat-to-ball skills; players with that profile get linked to them consistently. Lindsey does have strong contact ability, as well as 80-grade speed and a shortstop profile.
30. Rangers — Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State
There’s some thought that Janek could be sliding a bit. I think that would be a mistake considering just how impressive he is as a defender and thrower behind the plate. He’s the best defensive catcher in the class, with solid bat speed and offensive tools to go with it and is likely to be a more high-probability big leaguer than many of the players in front of him on this mock draft.
I have the Rangers benefiting from the slide here in this mock. The Rangers are also linked to the other two college catchers (Caleb Lomavita and Malcolm Moore). Those two could be in play if they’re here, as could Theo Gillen and Jurrangelo Cijntje. Texas is also linked to prep pitchers Kash Mayfield and William Schmidt.
31. D-backs — Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral HS, Temecula, Calif.
32. Orioles — Tommy White, 3B, LSU
33. Twins — Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee
34. Brewers — Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama
35. D-backs — Luke Holman, RHP, LSU
36. Guardians — Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS, Elmhurst, Ill.
37. Pirates — Bryce Meccage, RHP, The Pennington (N.J.) HS
38. Rockies — Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke
39. Royals — David Shields, LHP, Mt. Lebanon HS, Pittsburgh
