Minor https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/competition/minor/ Baseball America is the authority on the MLB Draft, MLB prospects, college baseball, high school baseball, international free agents. Baseball America finds the future of the game of baseball. Fri, 30 Aug 2024 14:04:05 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.3 https://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bba-favicon-32x32-1.bmp Minor https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/competition/minor/ 32 32 One MLB Prospect For Each Team Looking Forward To Brighter Days In 2025 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/one-mlb-prospect-for-each-team-looking-forward-to-brighter-days-in-2025/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/one-mlb-prospect-for-each-team-looking-forward-to-brighter-days-in-2025/#respond Fri, 30 Aug 2024 14:04:03 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1495539 Ethan Salas, Jordan Lawlar and Colson Montgomery are among the prospects likely looking to turn the page on the 2024 season.

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Baseball players have bad days, weeks and months. 

Sometimes, they have bad seasons.

But the everyday grind of baseball offers the daily chance at redemption. 

In this post, we highlight one player in each organization who is looking forward to brighter days ahead next season. That’s because the 2024 season has been a wash, whether because of performance, injury or suspension.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jordan Lawlar, SS

Lawlar made his MLB debut in September 2023 and appeared on all four of Arizona’s postseason rosters as the club won the NL pennant. He entered the 2024 season as the D-backs’ heir apparent at shortstop, if not on Opening Day then soon. Instead, the season has been a washout for Lawlar, who tore a thumb ligament in the spring and has dealt with recurring hamstring injuries that have limited him to just four games at Triple-A Reno. Lawlar is a prime candidate for an offseason assignment to pick up reps ahead of 2025.

Atlanta Braves

David McCabe, 3B/1B

McCabe hit well as an older player in pitcher-friendly Class A leagues in 2023 but missed the first four months of this season after having Tommy John surgery in February. He returned to Double-A Mississippi as a DH on July 30 as the 24-year-old looks forward to proving his bat at the upper levels in 2025. 

Baltimore Orioles

Max Wagner, 3B/2B

The Orioles have had a lot of things work out this season, both in MLB and the minor leagues. Wagner is one exception. While the 2022 Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year and Baltimore second-rounder was not expected to be a major factor this season, his effort has been completely short-circuited by injuries. He had surgery on his hamate bone in the offseason and has missed all but 25 games this season with a back injury. 

Boston Red Sox

Nazzan Zanetello, SS

The Red Sox knew it would take to develop Zanetello after they drafted him in the second round out of high school in 2023 and signed him for $3 million. A lot of work remains to be done after the athletic shortstop hit .163 with a 41% strikeout rate through 69 games at Low-A Salem.

Chicago Cubs

BJ Murray, 3B

Murray hit 16 home runs and drew 82 walks for Double-A Tennessee in 2023 and appeared in the Futures Game. His bat never really got going at Triple-A Iowa this season despite showing his trademark control of the strike zone. Murray hit .204/.320/.348 with 11 homers in 88 games prior to being demoted back to Double-A.

Chicago White Sox

Colson Montgomery, SS

Montgomery has struggled with the automated ball-strike system at Triple-A, with older pitchers working him backwards and potentially dealing with the after effects of back and oblique injuries in 2023. It has all added up to a forgettable debut season at Triple-A this year in which he hit .210/.326/.375 with 14 home runs through 107 games for Charlotte.   

Cincinnati Reds

Connor Phillips, RHP

Phillips thrived with the pre-tacked ball in the Double-A Southern League in the first half of 2023, but his walk rate regressed at Triple-A in the second half. That trend continued this season at Louisville, where his 16.6% walk rate ranked among the highest at Triple-A. Phillips’ path forward could require overpowering hitters in shorter stints.     

Cleveland Guardians

Daniel Espino, RHP

Espino’s season ended before it began when he had shoulder surgery in March to repair his capsule and rotator cuff. It’s the latest setback in the career of a young pitcher who struck out 152 batters in 91.2 innings in 2021. But a series of season-ending injuries means that Espino has not appeared in a game since April 29, 2022. 

Colorado Rockies

Adael Amador, 2B

Amador made his MLB debut in June, but aside from that 10-game trial, it has been a forgettable season for the 21-year-old who entered the year as the Rockies’ No. 1 prospect. Through 86 games for Double-A Hartford, Amador hit .218/.336/.362 with 12 home runs and 31 stolen bases.

Detroit Tigers

Troy Melton, RHP

Melton found success in 2023 as a college pitcher at a pair of Class A levels, posting a 2.74 ERA with a strikeout per inning and just five home runs allowed in 92 innings. His home run rate has regressed hard to the mean at Double-A Erie this season, where he has allowed 19 of them through 100.2 innings. The good news for Melton is that his strikeout and walk rates remain strong.

Houston Astros

Kenedy Corona, OF

Corona has a strong defensive reputation and handled center field regularly for Double-A Corpus Christi. His offensive upside is less certain based on substandard bat-to-ball skills, propensity to chase and high groundball rate. He hit .219/.326/.298 in 78 games for Corpus Christi prior to a late promotion to Triple-A Sugar Land. 

Kansas City Royals

Frank Mozzicato, LHP

Mozzicato’s control has never been pristine, but throwing strikes has been a major issue since he reached High-A Quad Cities in the second half of 2023. His velocity is down this season, and he lacks a putaway pitch, meaning that he has tended to nibble. Mozzicato has a 3.75 ERA through 93.2 innings, with 79 strikeouts and 62 walks.

Los Angeles Angels

Kyren Paris, 2B

Paris made his MLB debut late in the 2023 season but failed to capitalize on that this season. He began 2024 back at Double-A Rocket City, received a 21-game callup to Anaheim in May, which was followed by a demotion to Triple-A Salt Lake in June. Paris hit just .168/.246/.275 in 42 minor league games and has been on the Salt Lake injured list since July 11. He should get another MLB shot next season as a 23-year-old.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Maddux Bruns, LHP

It’s been a newsworthy year for Dodgers pitching prospects. Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski made their MLB debuts. Nick Frasso had season-ending shoulder surgery in February, while Kyle Hurt and River Ryan had Tommy John surgery during the season. Bruns, meanwhile, got a late start at High-A Great Lakes, then missed June and July with a back injury before returning in August. His stuff misses bats—37 strikeouts in 28.1 innings—but his 15.6% walk rate remains too high and pushes his pitch counts to the extreme too early in starts.

Miami Marlins

Dillon Head, OF

Drafted in the first round in 2023 by the Padres, Head joined the Marlins in the May trade that sent Luis Arraez to San Diego. He played in 26 games this season—just five for the Marlins—before having season-ending hip surgery in June. Head is a speed-and-defense-forward player with a chance to hit.  

Milwaukee Brewers

Brock Wilken, 3B

The Brewers drafted Wake Forest slugger at No. 18 overall in 2023, intrigued by his ready-made power. While Wilken has been serviceable for Double-A Biloxi this season, the Brewers were expecting more than a .210/.321/.374 batting line with 15 home runs and a strikeout rate near 27% through 94 games.

Minnesota Twins

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF

The Twins’ top two young hitters, Walker Jenkins and Rodriguez, have been hampered by injuries this season. Jenkins is back and hitting with High-A Cedar Rapids. Rodriguez hasn’t played for Double-A Wichita since June 5 as he has dealt with a right thumb injury. He obliterated the Texas League while healthy—.298/.479/.621 in 37 games—but has now spent a chunk of each of his four pro seasons on the injured list. 

New York Mets

Jett Williams, SS

Williams had surgery on his right wrist in June but had not played since April 21. He returned to action on Aug. 21 and was still finding his groove after missing May, June, July and most of August. Williams is a prime candidate for an offseason assignment to the Arizona Fall League. 

New York Yankees

Everson Pereira, OF

Pereira hit well for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre for 40 games but was not able to gain additional MLB experience after making his debut in 2023. He had elbow surgery on June 14 to repair a torn ligament and will miss the rest of the season.

Oakland Athletics

Myles Naylor, SS

The younger brother of Josh and Bo Naylor has had a rougher introduction to full-season ball than they did. Through 107 games at Low-A Stockton, Myles hit .195/.328/.326 with 10 home runs and a healthy 16% walk rate—but also a strikeout rate near 33%.

Philadelphia Phillies

Mick Abel, RHP

Walks are a problem for many young power pitchers throwing to the automated ball-strike systems at Triple-A. Abel is no exception. His 15% walk rate and 5.88 ERA are among the highest at the level, a byproduct of advanced hitters staying in the strike zone more often. Abel just turned 23 years old and has a largely clean bill of health in pro ball, putting him in position to progress in 2025. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Anthony Solometo, LHP

Solometo reached Double-A Altoona as a 20-year-old in 2023 but has not made a smooth transition to to the level this season. Through 46.2 innings he had a 6.17 ERA for Altoona with 36 strikeouts and 32 walks. He didn’t record an out in the fifth inning until August. Solometo’s velocity is down and he spent time on the development list in June, but he’s young enough to get back on track next season.

St. Louis Cardinals

Tekoah Roby, RHP

The Cardinals added Roby and Thomas Saggese when they dealt Jordan Montgomery to the Rangers at the 2023 trade deadline. Roby made four promising starts for Double-A Springfield after the trade, but his followup effort has been a washout. Roby dealt with a back injury in the spring and missed more than three months while dealing with a shoulder injury. The 22-year-old has a checkered injury history but also has youth on his side.

San Diego Padres

Ethan Salas, C

Salas entered the season as a top 10 overall prospect but hasn’t hit enough to hold the line. Still, he’s an 18-year-old lefthanded-hitting catcher with a high level of defensive skill and maturity. As he gains physicality and reps, Salas will rebound from his current station. Through 103 games for High-A Fort Wayne, he hit .208/.293/.316 with four home runs.

San Francisco Giants

Walker Martin, SS

Regarded as one of the best athletes in the 2023 draft, Martin set a Colorado state record for home runs as a high school senior. The Giants drafted him in the second round and paid him like a first-rounder, yet slow-played him in 2024 by assigning him to the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League. In August, Martin moved to Low-A San Jose, where his strikeout rate spiked to 51%.  

Seattle Mariners

Jonny Farmelo, OF

Drafted 29th overall in 2023, Farmelo hit .264/.398/.421 with four home runs and 18 stolen bases through 46 games for Low-A Modesto. But that’s when his season abruptly came to an end. Farmelo tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee on June 11 while making a routine play in center field. He should be good to go at some point in 2025. 

Tampa Bay Rays

Dylan Lesko, RHP

The way scouts talked about Lesko leading up to the 2022 draft indicated he had special upside. It hasn’t played out that way in pro ball yet. Lesko had Tommy John surgery in the spring of his draft year, which dropped him to the Padres at No. 15 overall. At the July trade deadline, San Diego traded him to the Rays in the Jason Adam deal. It is shaping up as a lost year for Lesko, who has a 6.80 ERA through 82 innings this season. His 18% walk rate is one of the worst in the minors.

Texas Rangers

Brock Porter, RHP

The Rangers acquired Porter and Kumar Rocker as essentially a package deal in the 2022 draft. Rocker is beginning to gain helium following his recovery from Tommy John surgery, but for Porter it has been a lost season. He opened the season at High-A Hickory but showed diminished stuff and control, finishing the season in the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League.

Toronto Blue Jays

Orelvis Martinez, 2B

Martinez bashed 16 home runs in 63 games for Triple-A Buffalo to earn his first big league callup on June 21. His victory was short-lived. Two days later, MLB announced an 80-game suspension for Martinez after he tested positive for the performance-enhancing substance Clomiphene. He is eligible to return on Sept. 23.

Washington Nationals

Cristhian Vaquero, OF

The switch-hitting Cuban outfielder signed the highest bonus in the 2021 international period and embarked on his first year in a full-season league in 2024. It did not go well. Vaquero’s .583 OPS was one of the lowest marks for a regular in Low-A. He hit .181/.283/.301 with five home runs in 97 games for Fredericksburg.

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Kumar Rocker Pitches Toward Top 100, Rangers’ 2025 Plans https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/kumar-rocker-pitches-toward-top-100-rangers-2025-plans/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/kumar-rocker-pitches-toward-top-100-rangers-2025-plans/#respond Thu, 29 Aug 2024 22:18:37 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1494711 Rocker once faced questions about whether he'd ever regain his dominance. Now, he looks like one of the best pitchers in the minors.

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As Kumar Rocker walked off the mound on Wednesday night, it was hard not to think back to June 2019.

As the College World Series wrapped up with Vanderbilt celebrating a national title, Rocker looked like the best pitcher in the U.S. who wasn’t pitching in the major leagues.

He’s looking like that once again. In his Triple-A debut, Rocker struck out 10 of the 16 batters he faced. He allowed just one hit (on a comebacker that hit him) in five innings.

Rocker’s dominance continued what he showed in Double-A. In his five Double-A starts, Rocker allowed just nine hits, three walks and one run in 19.2 innings. He struck out 29. In Double-A and Triple-A this year, Rocker has a 0.36 ERA, a .119 opponents average and a 44.8% strikeout percentage.

As good as the numbers are, Rocker’s stuff has been better. He’s sitting at 97-98 mph with his fastball and touching 100 mph. His mid-80s power slider/curve (it has a slider’s power but the straight downward break of a curveball) passes every aspect of the eye test, but its results barely seem credible. Since he reached Double-A, he’s getting swings and misses on nearly 40% of his breaking ball. The median swing and miss rate for sliders in the minors is 16%.

In other words, Rocker looks again like the dominant pitcher who vaulted onto the national stage as a freshman at Vanderbilt in 2019. 

Top 100 Prospects

See our latest Top 100 as the 2024 minor league season winds to a close.

Five years ago, Rocker became nationally famous by putting together a stretch of dominance that is rarely seen in college baseball. He threw a 19-strikeout no-hitter in an do-or-die Super Regional game against Duke. He then allowed one run in six innings to beat Mississippi State in Omaha, and followed it up by allowing one run in 6.1 innings while striking out 11 in a do-or-die CWS finals game against Michigan.

And until now, he has struggled to regain that level of dominance. The coronavirus pandemic derailed his 2020 season. In 2021, he showed flashes of that greatness, but the quality of his stuff varied from outing to outing. The Mets drafted him No. 10 that year, but lowered their offer after a post-draft medical.

Rocker declined to sign. He went to pitch in the Frontier League for a few showcase starts before the Rangers drafted him third overall in the 2022 draft. Rocker made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League, where he looked rusty and wild.

After six starts at High-A Hickory in 2023, Rocker was shut down and had Tommy John surgery. While that was a setback, it seems to have served as a fulcrum point for his bounceback.

He’s healthy again. Coming back from the elbow surgery, Rocker’s stuff has a power and consistency that was sometimes lacking in 2021, 2022 and 2023. There were times in his final year at Vanderbilt where he’s sit at 90-91 mph for innings, even if there were other times that he’d touch 99 mph. This year, his fasbtall is sitting 1-2 mph harder than he maxed out at in 2023.

The added velocity makes his fastball play better. It also added even more power to his already impressive breaking ball. No one hit Rocker’s breaking ball in college, and pro hitters aren’t having any more luck. Synergy Sport data had hitters hitting .071/.113/.071 against his slider this year.

Prior to the season, Rocker hadn’t been on a mound consistently in three seasons. He faced questions about whether he could regain his previous level of dominance.

Now, he looks like one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues, and one who should play a significant role in the Rangers’ big league plans in 2025.

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These 10 Pitching Prospects Emerged As Unlikely Breakouts In 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/these-10-pitching-prospects-emerged-as-unlikely-breakouts-in-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/these-10-pitching-prospects-emerged-as-unlikely-breakouts-in-2024/#respond Thu, 29 Aug 2024 14:38:12 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1493845 Few would've predicted breakouts for these 10 pitchers, but all are among the top performers in the minor leagues in 2024.

The post These 10 Pitching Prospects Emerged As Unlikely Breakouts In 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Pitching breakouts come from the damnedest of places and rarely from the players we expect.

We often fall in love with the loud spring performer, or the high-upside prep who signed for overslot money later in the draft. But instead, breakouts often come from older pitchers who have figured something out. It could be a new pitch, added velocity, a new plan of attack or even a change in pitch usage.

The unpredictable nature of baseball and player development makes following the game, and more specifically prospects, a fun guessing game. Among the 10 pitchers discussed today, few people outside of their own families would have pegged them for potential future stardom. Yet they are all among the best minor league performers in 2024.

Alejandro Rosario, RHP, Rangers 

It’s remarkable what a small tweak in usage can do for pitchers coming into professional baseball out of college. Rosario is one such case, as a drop in fastball usage has led to a substantial improvement in results.

While at Miami, Rosario used his fastball 68% of the time in 2023. That number has dropped to 54% since making his pro debut. Rosario is still fastball-dominant, but he’s becoming far less predictable with the pitch. It doesn’t hurt that Rosario has two secondaries that have average or better stuff that play off of his fastball.

Rosario has generated high rates of chase swings against both his slider (39.1%) and changeup (38.9%), helping to boost the swing-and-miss numbers and overall results. There’s potentially some tunneling effects going on. Both pitches have strong vertical separation off of his fastball, though the release heights vary slightly. Rosario fastball shape is below-average on its face, with equal vertical and horizontal movement. When you dig deeper, you see his 5-foot-4 fastball release height creates a flatter plane of approach. This allows the power and above-average armside run to play.

Rosario has an interesting arsenal, he’s throwing consistent strikes and generating swings and misses. This looks like a legitimate breakout. 

K.C. Hunt, RHP, Brewers

The Brewers seem to do the best job of any organization of turning college relievers into potential starting pitching prospects. Hunt spent four seasons in Mississippi State’s bullpen before signing with the Brewers as a nondrafted free agent in 2023. Hunt has leaned into his slider usage as a professional and it has yielded great results.

After beginning the season as a reliever in Low-A, Hunt was promoted to High-A Wisconsin and made three multi-inning relief appearances before joining the Timber Rattlers rotation on June 6. Since then, Hunt has made 11 starts across High-A and Double-A posting a 2.06 ERA, 2.70 FIP, with a 33.2% strikeout rate to a 5.8% walk rate. He’s showing the ability to go deep into starts despite limited starting experience. Over those 11 starts, Hunt has gone five or more innings in 10 of those games.

After using his fastball more than his slider in college, Hunt now most frequently deploys his slider. It’s slightly harder than it was in college, sitting 84-86 mph up from 81-83 mph at Mississippi State in 2023. Hunt’s slider is a pure gyro ball with high spin rates and late bite. Hunt’s fastball has good shape but below-average velocity and his curveball is a upper-70s downer curveball with depth.

Neither the fastball or curveball miss many bats, putting more focus on the slider. There’s a cutter mixed in that has shown solid results in limited usage. It’s an interesting development story but there’s some questions around how long this approach can work without an average or better second pitch. 

Travis Sykora, RHP, Nationals 

A few Nationals pitching prospects have turned in noteworthy performances (we’ll get to another below), but none more so than Sykora. The 6-foot-6 righty has a repeatable operation and has been arguably the top pitcher in the Low-A Carolina League. Over 18 starts spanning 78 innings, Sykora has a 2.13 ERA, 1.88 FIP and a 39.3% strikeout rate to a 7.7% walk rate.

Sykora has a true three-pitch mix made up of a four-seam fastball, a slider and a split changeup. The fastball is the standout pitch in Sykora’s arsenal sitting 94-95 mph touching 99 mph at peak. The pitch has just ordinary shape, plays up because of his above-average extension.

Sykora’s slider is his most-used secondary and is a good swing-and-miss pitch. The slider is a cutter style slider in the low-to-mid-80s that could add power in the coming years. Sykora’s splitter is his best-performing secondary with a swinging strike rate just below 30%. Batters also swing at his splitter most frequently, leading to lots of swings outside the zone and whiffs inside the zone.

Sykora’s size and feel for three above-average or better pitches make him one of the more high-upside breakouts of 2024. 

Kohl Drake, LHP, Rangers 

Drake fell flat in his 2023 professional debut, but has put together a nice 2024 campaign. He jumped three levels this season and reached Double-A, where he has struck out 37.2% of batters this season while holding opponents to a batting average of .199. Drake tossed six scoreless in his return to Double-A on Aug. 25 and should finish the season with Frisco.

Drake saw a velocity bump from his time in Juco, sitting 92-93 mph touching 96 mph at peak. A tall lefthander, Drake gets below-average extension on his fastball but does generate a solid amount of armside movement. The fastball sees a vast majority of Drake’s usage at around 55%. The rest are split between four secondaries: a curveball (13.8% usage), changeup (13.6% usage), slider (9.5% usage) and cutter (8.4% usage). All of his secondaries grade out at fringe-average or below, but he commands his fastball well, and mixes shapes keeping hitters off balance.

Drake has back-of-the-rotation or emergency starter upside. He likely lacks the fastball power or traits to sit in the middle of a big league rotation one day. 

Ryan Lobus, RHP, Rangers 

A 2023 nondrafted free agent from Mercer, Lobus was roughed up over two Arizona Complex League appearances in his debut that year. The Rangers assigned him to Low-A Down East out of camp this year, where he worked primarily as a multi-inning reliever. Lobus began to see more starts following a May 14 promotion to High-A Hickory. While a majority of Lobus’ outings are around four innings, he has shown the capacity to go longer.

Lobus is a true slider-first pitcher, throwing it more than 60% of the time. Lobus has two fastball shapes and combines to throw both only 28% of the time. Both pitches sit in the low 90s, but the two-seam shows some sink and run. Lobus also throws a splitter but it only generates fringy results.

Lobus’ slider generates most of his swings and misses with a 21% swinging strike rate. The slider is a classic low-80s sweeper and Lobus leans into its quality, showing advanced feel for the pitch. This likely won’t work as a starter as a professional, but Lobus could be an interesting multi-inning reliever with a signature pitch. 

Trevor Harrison, RHP, Rays 

Harrison was high school teammates with breakout Phillies prospect Aidan Miller. Harrison has enjoyed a breakout season in his own right, making eight strong appearances in the Florida Complex League before making the jump to Low-A on July 5.

The righthander has missed bats at a high rate across both levels, amassing a 14.2% swinging strike rate across all levels. He has struck out 28.5% of opposing batters but has been hittable at times, shown by his .252 batting average against. Some of that is bad luck and some of it is the predictability of Harrison’s pitch mix.

While Harrison’s mid-90s fastball has above-average stuff grades and solid results, he throws the pitch 70% of the time. This will likely iron itself out in time, as Harrison just turned 19 on Aug. 8 and his secondaries have shown average traits. Harrison’s mid-80s slider has gyro shape with slight cut, while his changeup has shown good velocity and vertical separation off of his fastball. He has toyed with a cutter as well but it has only been used sparingly.

Harrison has a starter’s build at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds but will need to show he can work deeper into starts in the coming years. Harrison is a young and exciting righthander with starter traits. 

Carlson Reed, RHP, Pirates 

A college reliever at West Virginia, the Pirates have deployed Reed as a starter in his first full pro season to strong results. He’s still getting acclimated to starting, but Reed has shown the ability to get deeper into outings, pitching into the fifth inning or later 11 times.

Reed mixes two fastball shapes at 92-93 mph with his two-seamer seeing the majority of the usage. Reed generates well above-average extension, helping to play up the downhill angle of his two-seamer. However, it’s the slider that is the primary weapon in Reed’s arsenal, generating whiffs at a greater than 50% rate. Reed’s slider is a harder sweeper at 83-85 mph with around a foot of sweep. While sweepers are often split dependent, Reed shows an above-average changeup that’s generated a 21.7% swinging strike rate against it.

Reed’s future as a starter is still uncertain, but his two-seam fastball generates ground balls at a 60% or better rate and he has two secondaries that drive whiffs. That profile can work in a variety of roles, it’s just a matter of Reed showing the ability to get through the order twice consistently. 

Brandyn Garcia, LHP, Mariners 

Signed in the 11th round out of Texas A&M in 2023, Garcia spent three seasons at Quinnipiac before transferring to Texas A&M. He worked exclusively as a reliever for the Aggies, and didn’t have particularly good results as an amateur with a 5.93 ERA across 148.2 collegiate innings. Garcia was drafted due to the quality and potential of his sinker and slider combination. This came to fruition in 2024, where Garcia has used his mid-90s sinker with true sink and heavy armside run to generate ground balls at a better than 60% rate this season.

His 85 mph slider is his primary swing-and-miss weapon and averages about 7-8 inches of sweep. Both Garcia’s sinker and slider grade out as above-average on Stuff+ models and his changeup, while infrequently used, has generated a similar groundball rate to his sinker.

A starter’s build at 6-foot-4 with a maxed out frame, Garcia has shown he can get deeper into starts during the middle part of this season. He’s been on a pitch count over the last month as his 104 innings this year are almost equal to his last two college seasons combined. The lefthander has the build stuff and ability to get whiffs and ground balls, Garcia has back-of-the-rotation upside. 

Anderson Brito, RHP, Astros 

Brito entered the year as a virtual unknown after signing out of Venezuela for just $10,000 during the 2023 international signing period. He has emerged as a true helium prospect.

Brito first dominated the Dominican Complex League before jumping stateside to the Florida Complex League for a scoreless four-inning performance. He was promoted again to Low-A Fayetteville, where he made six appearances to solid results. Brito has been limited to going through the order just about twice in each outing and has shown serious swing-and-miss skills, striking out 39.8% of batters across all levels.

His three-pitch mix gets strong Stuff+ grades across the board, but it’s his four-seam fastball that’s the current standout. Brito’s 95-96 mph fastball touches 99 with between 18-19 inches of ride and a flatter plane of approach. He generates serious power despite a smaller 5-foot-10 frame. His stature creates some concern–there are few MLB starters his size–and there are also questions about his current command execution of his secondaries.

Brito’s low-to-mid-80s sweeper slider grades out as well above-average on Stuff models, but has only produced average swing-and-miss numbers this season. His changeup is a work in progress but has gotten average results this season and is a part of his arsenal going forward. Brito made significant gains since signing and has the makings of a good three-pitch mix with a plus fastball.

His size and still-raw secondary command are working against him, but Brito is an interesting talent with big league potential. 

Jarlin Susana, RHP, Nationals

Susana was a part of the Juan Soto return from the Padres. While he hasn’t reached the heights of James Wood, he’s a part of an exciting young crop of pitchers in the Nationals farm system.

Susana has long had elite power along his arsenal. In 2024, he’s commanding his stuff at a higher rate. The 6-foot-6 Susana has a career-low 11.2% walk rate this season with his highest strikeout rate since his professional debut, though in 2024 he’s thrown twice the innings. Susana has serious swing-and-miss stuff with two different fastball shapes sitting 99-100 mph touching as high as 103 mph this season. Susana has held the velocity deep into games as well, going five or more innings in 12 of his last 14 starts.

While Susana’s fastball velocity will capture your eyes and fix them to the radar gun readings, his slider is his best pitch. Sitting 88-90 mph touching 94-95 mph at peak, Susana’s cut-slider is thrown an equal amount to his fastballs and generates excellent results. Susana has generated swinging strikes at a rate of 24% against his slider this season with a high rate of chases as well. It’s proving to be a plus pitch per Stuff and the performance against it.

Susana also throws a firm low-90s changeup that has generated whiffs, though his command for the pitch comes and goes. Overall, Susana has turned a corner with the command of his plus stuff, allowing him to show deeper into outings. This was a big turn from a pitcher who looked headed to the bullpen last season. Susana now shows the traits of a future high octane midrotation starter. 

The post These 10 Pitching Prospects Emerged As Unlikely Breakouts In 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Why Is Charlie Condon Struggling In His Pro Debut? https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/why-is-charlie-condon-struggling-in-his-pro-debut/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/why-is-charlie-condon-struggling-in-his-pro-debut/#respond Thu, 29 Aug 2024 11:55:45 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1493821 We take a look at the numbers from Charlie Condon's professional debut to diagnose his early struggles against minor league pitching.

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It’s early going still for Charlie Condon and the rest of the 2024 draftees who are making their pro debuts this summer, but for the No. 1 prospect and third overall pick from the class, the adjustment to pro pitching has been shaky.

Through his first 16 games and 70 plate appearances with High-A Spokane, Condon has hit .219/.286/.344 with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 21:2. That amounts to a 30% strikeout rate and 2.9% walk rate, respectively.

Condon’s strikeout rate is the primary concern at the moment. While it’s true we’re still very much in small sample size territory, it’s also true that strikeout rate is one of the quickest offensive stats to stabilize. 

Condon’s already cleared the 60 plate appearance “stabilization point” for strikeout rate, so perhaps there’s more signal than noise here for a player who entered the draft as one of the most well-rounded and accomplished hitters in the class

In a down 2024 draft, Condon ranked as a consensus top-two player in the class and finished as the No. 1 player on the BA Draft board thanks to a strong combination of power and bat-to-ball skills. Here’s how we described his offensive game in our draft report:

“Condon has a special blend of power and pure hitting ability. He has a chance for 70-grade raw power, with the ability to homer to all fields and some of the best top-end exit velocities in the class. He has more pure bat-to-ball skills than might be expected of a tall hitter with such long levers.”

Strikeouts weren’t ever a huge question for Condon in college. He struck out at a 17.7% clip as a redshirt freshman with Georgia in 2023, then lowered that figure to 13.5% as a redshirt sophomore in 2024. Overall, his career strikeout rate in college stands at a perfectly respectable 15.4% clip.

That said, he was unique as a 6-foot-6, long-levered hitter at the top of the class. On a recent Baseball America Hot Sheet interview, Condon spoke to the benefits and challenges that come with his size in the batter’s box: 

“It can play to your advantage if you know how to use it,” Condon said about his long levers. “So for me, it was about being really good at learning how to use it to my advantage and not letting it tie myself up. There’s a lot of things that you have to get down when you’ve got long arms … It can create a long swing, it can create casting and coming around the ball and stuff like that. So for me, it was about learning to use my levers on the back end of my swing and using my extension as an advantage while also keeping things short and tight and compact to my body in the first half of my swing. 

“Just being able to be close to my back shoulder and still have a direct path to the ball even with my long arms, and then once that barrel kind of turns and gets out front the extension and my length that way also helps me stay on the ball longer, be on plane longer and keep the ball in play and handle the barrel better as well.”

So far, pro pitchers have managed to more consistently expose the length of Condon’s swing compared to SEC and other college arms. Specifically, he has shown issues making contact with spin and off-speed offerings.

The table below shows Condon’s contact and swing decisions through his first 14 games and 61 plate appearances in the minors:

Miss%zMiss%Chase%Swing%
Overall36.60%25.00%29.50%44.90%
vs. Fastballs26.90%22.20%29.40%49.50%
vs. Breaking Balls52.90%31.60%25.90%35.10%
vs. Offspeed33.30%22.20%46.20%65.20%

He’s struggled to put the bat on the ball against breaking pitches, and he’s also struggled to hold back on his swing decisions vs. offspeed pitchers out of the zone. 

He’s been far better against fastballs and so far has had few issues handling top-end velocity, which is consistent with his production from college. Below are the same data points from his two-year Georgia career, by way of Synergy Sports: 

Miss%zMiss%Chase%Swing%
Overall21%11%27%43%
vs. Fastballs13%9%28%47%
vs. Breaking Balls29%13%23%38%
vs. Offspeed30%18%29%44%

So we can see that most of the swing-and-miss in Condon’s game has always come against non-fastballs. Despite that, college pitchers still attacked him with fastballs—which he feasted on—nearly 54% of the time. 

Condon will now face pitchers who have better velocity, better breaking balls, better offspeed pitches and, perhaps most importantly, a better understanding of how to locate those pitches and exploit hitter weaknesses. 

Finding the barrel more often against spin and spitting on soft stuff out of the zone will be Condon’s first test to pass in pro ball. 

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One September Callup We Hope To See For Every MLB Team https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/one-september-callup-we-hope-to-see-for-every-mlb-team/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/one-september-callup-we-hope-to-see-for-every-mlb-team/#respond Wed, 28 Aug 2024 14:18:33 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1493467 From potential impact players such as Jasson Dominguez to longshots, here's one September callup candidate for every team.

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Sept. 1 isn’t what it used to be, but it’s still a significant day for MLB rosters. On Sunday, teams can expand from their current 26-player MLB rosters to 28 players for the remainder of the regular season. Teams can only have 14 pitchers among those 28 players, so the callups largely end up being one position player and one pitcher.

Until the current CBA, teams were allowed to expand up to 40 players on the MLB roster for September, which meant waves of minor leaguers arriving to serve as defensive replacements, pinch hitters, pinch runners, extra bullpen arms and spot starters. Now, it’s a much more modest expansion.

Whether it’s because of that or just the different desires of teams, many logical Sept. 1 callup candidates have already gotten the call to the majors. Dylan Crews, Niko Kavadas, Rece Hinds, Bryan Ramos, Jacob Lopez and Tyler Gentry have all been called up this week.

Here’s our look at one player for each organization we’d love to see get a call to the majors when rosters expand.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Blaze Alexander, SS: An argument could be made for Yilber Diaz, but bringing Alexander back to serve as a multi-position infield backup makes a lot of sense for a team that looks ready for another playoff run.

Atlanta Braves

AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP. The 21-year-old already has four career callups to Atlanta, but remains rookie eligible because they all have been brief. Smith-Shawver pitched decently in one MLB spot start this season but has worked primarily for Triple-A Gwinnett in 2024. He is a logical September callup option to add one more arm to the Braves’ pitching staff.

Baltimore Orioles

Coby Mayo, 3B: Mayo was in the majors briefly in early August. There’s a case to be made for letting him get regular playing time in Norfolk. But with Chayce McDermott currently on the IL and a crowded 40-man roster, he makes the most sense as a callup. This time, though, it likely would be as a power bat off the bench.

Boston Red Sox

Vaughn Grissom, 2B: If there is a team that could pass on expanding their roster, the Red Sox would have a case for skipping it. The candidates who are currently on the 40-man roster are either struggling (Wikelman Gonzalez, Quinn Priester) or hurt (Luis Perales). Grissom hasn’t really made the case for a big league job in Boston (.228/.342/.323 at Triple-A Worcester), but September may be a last chance for Grissom to make a case for his 40-man roster spot.

Chicago Cubs

Owen Caissie, OF: Caissie will have to be protected from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, so adding him to the roster now makes sense. He can get a taste of the majors, serve as a bench bat with big power and use the month as preparation for trying to earn a regular role at some point in 2025.

Chicago White Sox

Tim Elko, 1B: The White Sox are on their way to record-setting futility. That isn’t the environment where you want Colson Montgomery to get acclimated to the majors, especially on the heels of a subpar season. So we’ll tab Elko as a logical candidate to get a taste of the majors. Elko’s defensive limitations and exceptionally aggressive approach may not work long term, but he’s got real power.

Cincinnati Reds

Blake Dunn, OF: It hasn’t been a great season for Dunn. He’s struggled to match his breakout 2023 season, even if he did get a brief big league callup. Getting him back to the majors would give the Reds a chance to see if he can fit in a backup outfield role in 2025.

Cleveland Guardians

Juan Brito, INF/OF: Brito has been on the 40-man roster for two seasons now, so bringing him up to serve as a multi-position backup provides depth at numerous positions. He has a patient eye and solid power that makes him a useful pinch hitter. His first callup would also help prep him and the Guardians for him taking hopefully a larger role in 2025.

Colorado Rockies

Greg Jones, OF: Getting a sense of whether Jones can help in 2025 would be a useful reason to call him up. Jones has used two options and will be 27 next year. It’s time to figure out if his speed can be an asset in the Rockies’ spacious outfield.

Detroit Tigers

Justyn-Henry Malloy, OF: Malloy struggled in his first taste of the big leagues. But with the Tigers’ youth movement gaining momentum, getting Malloy some more big league at-bats could be useful prep for 2025.

Houston Astros

Forrest Whitley, RHP: Whitley made his MLB debut on April 16 and recorded two outs. Since then, the Astros returned him to Triple-A, where he spent time on the injured list in May and June. Since returning on June 23, Whitley has made 21 relief appearances and allowed earned runs in just two games. The Astros don’t have a tremendous amount of exciting options already on the 40-man roster. Whitley is showing well in his new life as a reliever.

Kansas City Royals

Drew Waters, OF: The Royals have already brought up most everyone who can help, as this is an all-hands-on-deck approach to getting back to the playoffs. Waters is already on the 40-man roster, so bringing him back to be a backup outfielder who can pinch-run makes some sense, but the Royals don’t have a lot of logical callup candidates.

Los Angeles Angels

Christian Moore, 2B: We wouldn’t suggest bringing up a 2024 draftee for almost any other team. But the Angels love to push players quickly to the majors, as Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto and Chase Silseth can attest. The Angels haven’t gotten a lot of production from Brandon Drury and Michael Stefanic, so Moore could slot right into the lineup.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Edgardo Henriquez, RHP: Henriquez has been one of the most dominant relievers in the minor leagues this season, thanks to an arsenal filled with high-octane pitches. His fastball lives in the world of triple-digits, and his slider can induce plenty of silly swings. He has moved from Low-A to Triple-A throughout the course of the season and has racked up 79 strikeouts in just 47 innings. 

Miami Marlins

Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B: The Marlins added De Los Santos when they traded AJ Puk to the D-backs this summer. He has mashed 35 home runs in the minors this season, so Miami could use September to gauge whether his power will play next season. The Marlins are likely going to add De Los Santos to the 40-man roster this offseason. He went unprotected by Arizona last year and was selected in the Rule 5 draft before ultimately being returned.

Milwaukee Brewers

Jacob Misiorowski, RHP: Misiorowski gave up two runs on three walks in his first relief appearance for Triple-A Nashville. Since then, he has allowed just one hit in 10.2 innings over six appearances. His near top-of-the-scale stuff could be an asset in anyone’s bullpen and he could make a case for a spot in the postseason bullpen. Much of the same could be said for Nashville teammate Craig Yoho, thanks to Yoho’s exceptional changeup.

Minnesota Twins

DaShawn Keirsey, OF: Keirsey is not on the 40-man roster and the Twins have avoided calling him up even as they have battled injuries in the outfield. But Keirsey’s combination of center field defense, speed on the basepaths and a significantly improved bat could be a useful role player down the stretch as the Twins push for a playoff spot.

New York Mets

Luisangel Acuña, SS. Acuña has not exactly torn up Triple-A, but he has carrying tools in his speed, arm and defense, particularly in terms of his versatility. He plays shortstop, second base and center field and is already on the 40-man roster.

New York Yankees

Jasson Dominguez, OF: There aren’t many players on this list who should step right into a regular role. Not only should Dominguez come up, he should be given a shot to see if he can produce more than left fielder Alex Verdugo, who is hitting .228/.303/.313 in the second half of the season. Dominguez is already on the 40-man roster and will retain rookie eligibility for 2025, so this seems like an obvious choice.

Oakland Athletics

Denzel Clarke, OF: There aren’t many great callup candidates for the A’s, but Oakland is facing a decision on whether to roster Clarke this offseason, so there is a case for promoting him from Double-A if the team has already decided to add him to the 40-man roster this offseason.

Philadelphia Phillies

Mick Abel, RHP: The 2020 first-rounder has struggled with control at Triple-A, as many young power pitchers do with the automated ball-strike system. But Abel’s last five efforts have been better—3.20 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 25.1 innings—hinting at possible utility in a swingman or short relief role this September. If not called up, he will likely be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to shield him from the Rule 5 draft.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Bubba Chandler, RHP: It’s unlikely to happen, as it would require adding him to the 40-man roster, but getting Chandler some late-season MLB innings would be an excellent way to help prep him for a rotation spot in 2025.

San Diego Padres

Tirso Ornelas, OF: The Padres added Ornelas to the 40-man roster in July, so bringing him up to the majors won’t require clearing a roster spot. He has had easily his best season as a pro. Ornelas could get some work off the bench or in spot starts in a corner outfield spot.

Seattle Mariners

Emerson Hancock, RHP: Hancock has made nine starts for the Mariners already this year. Bringing him back to work as a spot-starter/long-man would further bolster the strength of the Mariners. There aren’t a whole lot of options to help bolster the Mariners’ weakness: their inability to score runs. 

San Francisco Giants

Marco Luciano, SS: Despite reappearing in the big leagues again, Luciano has had a season he’d probably like to reset. Nonetheless, with the team’s playoff chances on life support, it might be time to give their No. 2 prospect some extended run in order to see just what he can do with consistent playing time. He has shown plenty of tools throughout the course of his career, but he has also been prone to slow starts. If given some runway, Luciano’s talent might show up in September.

St. Louis Cardinals

Tink Hence, RHP: Hence isn’t on the Cardinals’ 40-man roster, so this is likely just a pipe dream. Those that are, like Sem Robberse, aren’t that exciting. Hence has returned over the last month and is rounding into shape. With a 40-man roster spot looming this offseason, Hence could get a late-season cup of coffee out of the pen. 

Tampa Bay Rays

Joe Rock, LHP: The Rays need to protect Rock on the 40-man roster this offseason or else he becomes Rule 5 eligible. Adding him to the roster a couple months early just advances what is likely an easy decision for a solid, if unspectacular, lefthanded option.

Texas Rangers

Jack Leiter, RHP: This one is cheating, because Leiter will return to the big leagues and start Wednesday against the White Sox. The 2021 first-rounder made his debut earlier this season and found out he had plenty more polish to apply before he was ready to return. After a few tweaks, Leiter has spent the last month or so dominating at Triple-A Round Rock. In two August starts, the righthander has struck out 20 and walked just two over 9.1 innings.

Toronto Blue Jays

Jake Bloss, RHP: Bloss has not allowed a run in three starts for Triple-A Buffalo since Toronto acquired him in the Yusei Kikuchi trade. They will need to monitor his innings, but Bloss makes some sense for a Blue Jays team without a lot of candidates.

Washington Nationals

Zach Brzykcy, RHP: The 25-year-old reliever is in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and on the 40-man roster. Brzykcy reached Triple-A in mid August and should be a factor in the Nationals’ 2025 bullpen with his power fastball/curveball mix.

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Marcelo Mayer Injury Concerns, Early 2025 Seth Hernandez Draft Buzz | Hot Sheet Show Ep. 22 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/marcelo-mayer-injury-concerns-early-2025-seth-hernandez-draft-buzz-hot-sheet-show-ep-22/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/marcelo-mayer-injury-concerns-early-2025-seth-hernandez-draft-buzz-hot-sheet-show-ep-22/#respond Wed, 28 Aug 2024 00:51:50 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1492686 Today's Hot Sheet Show covers Marcelo Mayer's latest injury, September callups and early 2025 MLB Draft buzz with Carlos Collazo.

The post Marcelo Mayer Injury Concerns, Early 2025 Seth Hernandez Draft Buzz | Hot Sheet Show Ep. 22 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Top Red Sox prospect Marcelo Mayer likely won’t finish a season healthy for the second consecutive year. Is this a long-term concern? Scott Braun, J.J. Cooper and Geoff Pontes kick off the show talking Red Sox prospects before transitioning into September callups we’d like to see. Then Carlos Collazo joins the show to discuss early 2025 draft buzz, including a prep pitcher who has the potential to be better than any arm in the 2024 class.

Time Stamps

  • (1:00) How concerned are we with Marcelo Mayer’s injury history? 
  • (4:00)The Red Sox now have a Big Four. Who reaches Boston first? 
  • (7:15) What September callups do we most want to see? 
  • (11:30) Geoff details his recent conversation with top pick Travis Bazzana
  • (16:45) Why Carlos is really excited about 2025 RHP Seth Hernandez in the draft 
  • (23:00) Answering fan questions!

We stream the Hot Sheet Show every Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET on YouTube. You can also listen to the show wherever you get your podcasts!

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The post Marcelo Mayer Injury Concerns, Early 2025 Seth Hernandez Draft Buzz | Hot Sheet Show Ep. 22 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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How Jaison Chourio, James Wood & Other Top MLB Prospects Compare To Past Best Tools Winners https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-jaison-chourio-james-wood-other-top-mlb-prospects-compare-to-past-best-tools-winners/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-jaison-chourio-james-wood-other-top-mlb-prospects-compare-to-past-best-tools-winners/#respond Tue, 27 Aug 2024 14:00:37 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1484656 Not every Best Tools category is created equal. So let's focus on the categories that tend to correlate with MLB success.

The post How Jaison Chourio, James Wood & Other Top MLB Prospects Compare To Past Best Tools Winners appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio rose to prominence as a prospect two years ago, highlighted in part by winning Best Batting Prospect and Most Exciting Player in Baseball’s 2022 Best Tools voting in the Low-A Carolina League.

This year, his younger brother Jaison Chourio won the same categories in the same league in the same exercise. The junior Chourio, one of the Guardians’ top prospects, won two additional Carolina League categories: Best Strike Zone Judgment and Best Defensive Outfielder.

Winning four categories in a 12-team league sounds impressive, but what does it tell us about future potential? 

For the Chourios, it tells us a lot.

Winners of the Best Batting Prospect and Most Exciting Player categories in minor league Best Tools voting have gone on to produce more big league WAR than other category winners. But as Baseball America readers know, the minor leagues are not monolithic. Full-season minor leagues vary in size from six to 20 teams. They differ significantly in age, experience level and overall maturity of constituents, just as they vary in proximity to the big leagues. 

One underrated difference between minor leagues is the size of its geographic footprint. The Triple-A International and Pacific Coast leagues span multiple time zones. The High-A South Atlantic League contains North and South divisions that comport with their descriptors.

All that is to say that not every minor league is created equal, just as not every Best Tools category is created equal. To level out some of the inherent differences between leagues and categories, let’s take a look at distinguished winners in minor league Best Tools history, which stretches back to 1983.

We will focus on the top Best Tools vote-getters—with weights applied to category wins that correlate with WAR—at each full-season level.

Low-A

Top 2024 Vote-Getter 

Jaison Chourio, OF, Lynchburg (Guardians)
2024 Carolina League
Best Batting Prospect, Best Strike-Zone Judgment, Best Defensive OF, Most Exciting Player

Chourio is a 19-year-old, switch-hitting center fielder who first jumped on the prospect radar a year ago in the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League. This year, he has shown off his batting eye with a Carolina League-leading walk total and more free passes than strikeouts. Chourio also ranks among the league leaders in OBP, doubles and stolen bases, painting a nice picture of his upside.


Top Historical Vote-Getters

Andruw Jones, OF, Macon (Braves)
1995 South Atlantic League
Best Batting Prospect, Best Power Prospect, Best Baserunner, Best Defensive OF, Most Exciting Player

Playing all season as an 18-year-old, Jones turned in a season that instantly turned him the No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into 1996. His totals are mind-boggling for a player so young and so gifted defensively: 25 home runs, 41 doubles, 56 stolen bases, 70 walks, 104 runs and 100 RBIs in 139 games.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Savannah (Rangers)
1996 South Atlantic League
Best Batting Prospect, Best Power Prospect, Best Defensive 3B, Best Infield Arm, Most Exciting Player

The Dodgers incurred a fine and one-year scouting ban in the Dominican Republic for signing Beltre when he was 15, a year before he was eligible. It might have been worth it. Beltre played the entire 1996 season as a 17-year-old and reached High-A in the second half. While at Low-A, he batted .307/.406/.586 with 16 home runs in a cavernous Savannah home park, all while showing off defensive chops that would make him a Gold Glover.


Other Huge Low-A Best Tools Seasons

  • Willie Ansley, 1989, Asheville (Astros)
  • Rafael Furcal, 1999, Macon (Braves) 
  • Mike Trout, 2010, Cedar Rapids (Angels)
  • Josh Hamilton, 2000, Charleston (Rays)
  • Alex Escobar, 1998, Capital City (Mets)
  • Prince Fielder, 2003, Beloit (Brewers)
  • Carlos Gonzalez, 2005, South Bend (D-backs)
  • Alex Rodriguez, 1994, Appleton (Mariners)

High-A

Top 2024 Vote-Getter

Cole Carrigg, OF, Spokane (Rockies)
2024 Northwest League
Best Defensive OF, Best Outfield Arm, Most Exciting Player

Kyle Karros, 3B, Spokane (Rockies)
2024 Northwest League
Best Batting Prospect, Best Defensive 3B, Best Infield Arm

Caveat: It’s easier for Northwest League players to win Best Tools categories because there are just six teams. Regardless, these two Rockies 2023 draft picks—second-rounder Carrigg out of San Diego State and fifth-rounder Karros out of UCLA, where his father Eric also starred—are off to strong starts in pro ball. Karros has a shot to win the NWL triple crown, while the switch-hitting Carrigg has locked down center field while getting on base, hitting for power and stealing bases.


Top Historical Vote-Getters

Jose Offerman, SS, Bakersfield (Dodgers)
1989 California League
Best Batting Prospect, Best Baserunner, Fastest Baserunner, Best Defensive SS, Best Infield Arm, Most Exciting Player

Before playing his way off shortstop and then washing out with the Dodgers, before finding success with the Royals and Red Sox, before attacking an opposing player with a bat in an independent league game in 2007, Offerman was one of the top prospects in baseball. He ranked No. 10 on the inaugural Top 100 Prospects lists in 1990, fresh off a good season the year before. He spent half of 1989 in the California League, hitting .307 with 37 stolen bases in 62 games. 

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Vero Beach (Dodgers) 
1997 Florida State League
Best Batting Prospect, Best Power Prospect, Best Defensive 3B, Best Infield Arm, Most Exciting Player

After his incendiary 1996 season, Beltre turned in an incredible encore in the Florida State League. As an 18-year-old, he slugged 26 home runs and stole 25 bases in 123 games, while compiling a .968 OPS in an extreme pitcher’s league. He walked 67 times, one more time than he struck out. By 1999, Beltre was an everyday big leaguer at age 20 and on his path to the Hall of Fame. 


Other Huge High-A Best Tools Seasons

  • Jackie Bradley Jr., 2012, Salem (Red Sox)
  • Joey Gallo, 2014, Myrtle Beach (Rangers)
  • Eric Hosmer, 2010, Wilmington (Royals)
  • Elly De La Cruz, 2022, Dayton (Reds)
  • Zac Veen, 2022, Spokane (Rockies)
  • Travis Lee, 1997, High Desert (D-backs)
  • Hak-Ju Lee, 2011, Port Charlotte (Rays) 

Double-A

Top 2024 Vote-Getter

Carson Williams, SS, Montgomery
2024 Southern League
Best Defensive SS, Best Infield Arm, Most Exciting Player

Williams is a lockdown defensive shortstop with a Three True Outcomes batting profile. He will rack up walks and strikeouts while hitting 25-plus home runs in his best seasons, a la Dansby Swanson. The Rays’ shortstop situation is unsettled, opening the door for the 21-year-old Williams when he is ready.


Top Historical Vote-Getter

Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Harrisburg (Expos)
1996 Eastern League
Best Batting Prospect, Best Power Prospect, Best Defensive OF, Best Outfield Arm, Most Exciting Player

Guerrero began the 1996 season in High-A, but quickly hit his way to the Eastern League after just 20 games. He was presenting himself as a 20-year-old at the time but was actually a year older. What Guerrero accomplished for Harrisburg was impressive at any age. He hit .360/.438/.612 with 32 doubles, eight triples, 19 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 118 games. He walked more than he struck out and logged 13 outfield assists in right field. It all added up to a September callup to Montreal, setting the stage for a Hall of Fame career.


Other Huge Double-A Best Tools Seasons
  • Mike Moustakas, 2010, Northwest Arkansas (Royals)
  • Jay Payton, 1995, Binghamton (Mets)
  • George Springer, 2013, Corpus Christi (Astros)
  • Walker Buehler, 2017, Tulsa (Dodgers)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 2011, Mobile (D-backs)
  • Miguel Cabrera, 2003, Carolina (Marlins)
  • Kris Bryant, 2014, Tennessee (Cubs)
  • Delmon Young, 2005, Montgomery (Rays)

Triple-A

Top 2024 Vote-Getters

James Wood, OF, Rochester (Nationals)
2024 International League
Best Power Prospect, Most Exciting Player

Shay Whitcomb, SS, Sugar Land (Astros)
2024 Pacific Coast League
Best Power Prospect, Most Exciting Player

Wood was the top prospect in baseball when the Nationals called up the 21-year-old on July 1. He is a 6-foot-7 lefthanded hitter with the towering power potential to match. Whitcomb, in contrast, was the final pick in the five-round 2020 draft and is already 25 years old and only now receiving his first callup to Houston. His path to a big league role is dependent on hitting for above-average power and maintaining the versatility to play all over the infield plus the outfield corners.


Top Historical Vote-Getter

Elly De La Cruz, SS, Louisville (Reds)
2023 International League
Best Batting Prospect, Best Power Prospect, Fastest Baserunner, Best Infield Arm, Most Exciting Player

De La Cruz required just 85 games in the upper minors before he made his MLB debut. Thirty-eight of those games came with Louisville in 2023, in the months preceding his June 6 MLB debut. During his short time in the International League, De La Cruz made a big impression by winning five Best Tools categories while hitting .298/.398/.633 with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases. This season in Cincinnati, he has a chance to hit 30 home runs and reach 80 stolen bases, a threshold not crossed in MLB since 1988.


Other Huge Triple-A Best Tools Seasons

  • Ronald Acuña Jr., 2018, Gwinnett (Braves)
  • Dean Palmer, 1991, Oklahoma City (Rangers)
  • Brian Hunter, 1994, Tucson (Astros)
  • Jake Cronenworth, 2019, Durham (Rays)
  • Trea Turner, 2016, Syracuse (Nationals)
  • Tim Salmon, 1992, Edmonton (Angels)
  • Starling Marte, 2012, Indianapolis (Pirates)
  • Gunnar Henderson, 2022, Norfolk (Orioles)
  • Bernie Williams, 1992, Columbus (Yankees)

The post How Jaison Chourio, James Wood & Other Top MLB Prospects Compare To Past Best Tools Winners appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Hot Sheet MLB Prospects Chat (8/27/24) https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sheet-mlb-prospects-chat-8-27-24/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sheet-mlb-prospects-chat-8-27-24/#respond Tue, 27 Aug 2024 13:19:21 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1492626 Want to chat about the latest MLB prospects news? We're answering weekly reader questions beginning at 2 p.m. ET.

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Cubs first-rounder Cam Smith headlines this week’s Hot Sheet, which ranks the 20 hottest prospects in baseball. As always, we are answering your questions beginning at 2 p.m. ET. You can submit yours ahead of time below.

We’re also streaming our weekly Hot Sheet show live on YouTube at 3 p.m. ET.

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Ranking The 20 Hottest MLB Prospects | Hot Sheet (8/27/24) https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ranking-the-20-hottest-mlb-prospects-hot-sheet-8-27-24/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ranking-the-20-hottest-mlb-prospects-hot-sheet-8-27-24/#respond Tue, 27 Aug 2024 12:22:02 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1491861 Cubs first-rounder Cam Smith headlines this week's Hot Sheet after his gaudy six-homer week and subsequent promotion.

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Baseball America’s Hot Sheet ranks the 20 hottest prospects from the previous week. This installment of the Prospect Hot Sheet considers how minor league players performed through Aug. 26. Contributing this week were Baseball America staffers Josh Norris, Geoff Pontes, J.J. Cooper and Matt Eddy.

This simply recognizes how the hottest prospects in the minors did in the past week—it’s not a re-ranking of the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects.

We host our weekly Hot Sheet Show on YouTube at 3 p.m. ET. Check out our channel here.


1. Cam Smith, 3B, Cubs 

Team: Low-A Myrtle Beach (Carolina) 
Age: 21 

Why He’s Here: .524/.577/1.429 (11-for-21), 8 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 11 RBIs, 4 BB, 2 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Smith turned in a week for the ages. The Cubs’ first-round pick homered in all six games of the series at Charleston, and reached base two or more times in five of six games. Smith put on a power show last week putting eight balls in play at 95+ mph with five going for home runs. Smith’s week was so good, the Cubs promoted him to High-A South Bend on Sunday evening. A draft-eligible sophomore who had an excellent 2024 at Florida State, Smith is carrying that momentum into his professional debut. (GP)

2. Carlson Reed, RHP, Pirates

Team: High-A Greensboro (South Atlantic)
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: A fourth-round pick out of West Virginia in 2023, Reed pitched out of the bullpen for the majority of his Mountaineers career. The Pirates moved Reed to the rotation upon turning pro and he has experienced tremendous success as a starter in 2024. He dazzled for six scoreless innings this week, striking out 10 while allowing just one hit and one walk. His 93-94 mph fastball touched 96 with two shapes, and he mixed in an 83-84 mph sweeper slider and an 83-84 mph changeup. Reed generated a season-high 18 swinging strikes. Four came against his fastball, 10 were against his slider and four more were off his changeup. This was Reed’s fourth time topping six innings in 21 starts. He’ll need to show he can go deeper into starts to remain a viable pitching prospect. (GP)

3. Spencer Nivens, OF, Royals

Team: High-A Quad Cities (Midwest)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .571/.667/1.333 (12-for-21) 8 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 10 RBIs, 6 BB, 3 SO, 1 SB.

The Scoop: On Aug. 1, Nivens was hitting .184/.287/.296, with six home runs all season and few bright spots. Thankfully for Nivens, his season didn’t end at the start of August. Since then, he’s been the best slugger in the minor leagues. He has 11 home runs this month, raising his OPS nearly 200 points, and he’s hitting .356/.430/.839 in August. Nivens does plenty of damage when he makes contact, but until this month, he wasn’t making enough consistent contact. A great month doesn’t erase what happened in the previous four months, but it does give Nivens an excellent endpoint to try to build on in 2025. (JC)

4. Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox

Team: Triple-A Worcester (International)
Age: 20

Why He’s Here: .393/.452/.750 (11-for-28), 10 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 8 RBIs, 3 BB, 4 SO, 0-for-0 SB

The Scoop: Anthony is off to a torrid start at Triple-A and is in the midst of a seven-game hitting streak entering the week. In last week’s series at Norfolk, Anthony hit three home runs and reached base two or more times in four out of six games. Anthony had 10 balls in play during the series of 95+ mph, including three balls in play at 108 mph or higher. Anthony’s most impressive home run of the week cleared the scoreboard in right field, traveling 433 feet at an exit speed of 108.9 mph. After a rough April, Anthony is hitting .293/.383/.540 with a 12.1% walk rate and a 21.9% strikeout rate over 77 games between Double-A and Triple-A. Anthony should be roaming the outfields of Fenway before long. (GP)

5. Quinn Mathews, LHP, Cardinals

Team: Double-A Springfield (Texas)
Age: 23

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 1.17, 7.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 12 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: Another start, another gem for Mathews, who has been well past dominant this season. His most recent turn featured a dozen strikeouts, bringing his total this year to a whopping 180 against just 35 walks. It was also his third start this month with 10 or more strikeouts. In August, Mathews is 2-0, 0.70 with 40 strikeouts against just four walks and 11 hits. (JN)

6. Aidan Miller, SS, Phillies

Team: High-A Jersey Shore (South Atlantic)
Age: 20

Why He’s Here: .450/.560/.900 (9-for-20), 7 R, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 5 BB, 3 SO, 2-for-2 SB

The Scoop: One thing that’s become clear in the new, restructured minor leagues is that the level-by-level adjustment period might take a little bit longer and plenty of patience will be required. Those who trusted Miller’s talent during his post-promotion lull have been rewarded. After four more extra-base hits this past week—including a home run—Miller’s August ledger looks like this: .342/.419/.618 with six doubles, three triples and three dingers. All told, he’s one of just seven players 20 years old or younger with 20 doubles, 10 homers and 20 stolen bases. (JN)

7. Caden Dana, RHP, Angels

Team: Double-A Rocket City (Southern)
Age: 20

Why He’s Here: 2-0, 0.64, 14 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 16 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: Dana belongs on the podium with the best pitchers in the minor leagues this season. The righthander, who opened the year as the youngest pitcher in the Southern League, has been marvelous from Opening Day and all throughout the summer. He showed no signs this past week of letting up, spinning a pair of gems that brought his August numbers to a sparkling 2-0, 0.57 with 32 strikeouts against just 19 hits and seven walks over 31.1 innings and five starts. His 147 punchouts lead the SL, and the same goes for his average against (.184) and WHIP (0.94). (JN)

8. Garrett Martin, OF, Yankees

Team: High-A Hudson Valley (South Atlantic)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: .381/.581/.905 (8-for-21), 10 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 9 RBIs, 8 BB, 6 SO, 2-for-2 SB

The Scoop: Martin went undrafted in 2023 and got off to a rough start in 2024. He hit .192/.293/.389 over the first 59 games of the season, as he struggled with approach and swing changes. Things seem to have clicked over the last three series, as Martin has hit .271/.397/.576 since Aug. 7. Over that time, Martin has accounted for nearly 50% of his home run production to date, including three home runs across two games of a doubleheader last week. Martin is super athletic with power and on-base ability, but he’s a long shot to make a major league impact at present. On the bright side, Martin is tooled up and it looks like things are starting to click. (GP)

9. Cam Collier, 3B, Reds

Team: High-A Dayton (Midwest)
Age: 19

Why He’s Here: .381/.480/.952 (8-for-21) 7 R, 4 HR, 7 RBIs, 3 BB, 3 SO.

The Scoop: Collier is a hitter who runs hot or cold. When he’s struggling, he’ll top way too many balls, hitting a slew of groundouts. But then there are weeks like this one, where he gets to his plus power regularly. Collier had one of the best days we’ll see this year on Friday. He lined a home run over the right field fence in the first, lifted one that just cleared the left field fence in the second and then hit a majestic third home run of the night to center field in the sixth. He added another home for good measure on Saturday. Collier now has 19 home runs this year and is hitting .373/.535/.729 with 22 walks compared to 14 strikeouts in August. He’s on a truly epic tear. (JC)

10. George Valera, OF, Guardians

Team: Triple-A Columbus (International)
Age: 23

Why He’s Here: .348/.400/1.000 (8-for-23), 6 R, 5 HR, 6 RBIs, 2 BB, 6 SO, 0 SB

The Scoop: Valera hit nearly a third of his home run total for the season last week in six games in a home series versus Indianapolis. It’s been another season of a piece for the corner outfielder. Lots of hard contact, lots of swing-and-miss and lots of days on the injured list. Now, with Triple-A time in three straight seasons, Valera is poised to make his MLB debut this season or next. (ME)

11. Alejandro Rosario, RHP, Rangers

Team: High-A Hickory (South Atlantic)
Age: 22 

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: After three underwhelming college seasons with Miami, Rosario has flipped his career trajectory in his first full professional season. Spanning 16 starts across both levels of A-ball, Rosario has pitched to an outstanding 2.72 ERA with 123 strikeouts to 12 walks as a professional. Rosario is showing significantly more swing-and-miss as well as command as a professional. Rosario threw well over 70% fastballs while at Miami. That usage has dropped to 50% since joining the Rangers. Instead, he’s throwing more sliders and changeups and his approach has paid off. Rosario sits 95-97 mph on his fastball, mixing in a mid-80s slider with hard slurve type break and a changeup with significant vertical separation from his heater. Last week, Rosario impressed again, tossing five scoreless, allowing just two hits while striking out nine. Rosario is pushing himself into late-season consideration for the Top 100. (GP) 

12. A.J. Ewing, OF, Mets

Team: Low-A St. Lucie (Florida State)
Age: 20

Why He’s Here: .546/.615/1.570 (12-for-22), 6 R, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBIs, 4 BB, 2 SO, 0 SB

The Scoop: The Mets went over slot to sign Ewing out of high school in the fourth round in 2023. He began this season in the Florida Complex League but showed big power and sound swing decisions to earn a promotion to Low-A after just 19 games. Ewing took time to adapt to the level but has put up a 1.019 OPS in August in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Drafted as a shortstop, he has focused on center field this season, with occasional work at second base as the Mets try to build in more positional versatility with their prospects this season. (ME)

13. Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees

Team: Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (International)
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: .393/.414/.571 (11-for-28), 9 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, 1 BB, 4 SO, 5-for-6 SB

The Scoop: Dominguez made a one-game cameo in the big leagues, but he still managed to crush the competition back at Triple-A as well. After losing much of the season to Tommy John rehab and then a separate IL stint for an oblique injury, the Yankees’ top prospect is beginning to round into form. He popped his second home run of August this past week and now has 12 RBIs for the month, more than double the total he posted in June and July combined. (JN)

14. Jackson Baumeister, RHP, Rays

Team: High-A Bowling Green (South Atlantic)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 1 GS, 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 SO

The Scoop: Before he was traded to the Rays in the Zach Eflin deal, the Orioles were very cautious with Baumeister’s workload. He has yet to throw 80 pitches in a start this year, and he had worked five innings only once. When the Rays acquired him, they actually ramped that workload down for the first couple of weeks. He averaged less than four innings an outing in his first four Rays’ appearances. So what Baumeister did this week is notable. That six innings is his longest start of the season. He threw strikes on 78% of his 69 pitches. (JC)

15. Jack Leiter, RHP, Rangers

Team: Triple-A Round Rock (Pacific Coast)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 1.59, 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 SO, 1 HR

The Scoop: Leiter has clearly found his groove, and he will reportedly be rewarded this week with a return to the big leagues. The righthander got there by overpowering his opponents at Triple-A. In his most recent outing, Leiter punched out nine hitters over 5.2 innings. The outing followed a 3.2 inning masterpiece in which all 11 of his outs were strikeouts. If you’re following along, that brings Leiter’s two-start total this August to 9.1 innings with five hits, two walks and an eye-popping 20 strikeouts. (JN)

16. Kristian Campbell, SS/OF, Red Sox

Team: Triple-A Worcester (International)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .348/.400/.652 (8-for-23), 5 R, 1 2B, 2 HR, 9 RBIs, 2 BB, 4 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Campbell hit .339/.444/.572 through 96 games between High-A Greenville and Double-A Portland, giving the Red Sox little choice but to promote him for a second time this season. His first week at Triple-A went just as well. He collected two hits in his first game at Norfolk, two more in his second and then three in his third, including two home runs. It’s been one of those seasons for Campbell, who has taken on a larger share of shortstop as the season has progressed. (ME)

17. Eiberson Castellano, RHP, Phillies 

Team: Double-A Reading (Eastern)
Age: 23

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 1.50, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 SO, 1 HR

The Scoop: After a strong showing for High-A Jersey Shore, Castellano was promoted to Double-A after the all-star break. He continues to slide under the radar despite excellent numbers over six Double-A starts, which continued this week at Binghamton. The righthander went six innings, allowing one run on two hits and a walk while striking out 11. Castellano mixes three pitches, potentially four if you consider his two fastball shapes. His 93-95 mph fastball touches 97 at peak with both his four-seam and two-seam showing just pedestrian shape. His primary secondary is a low-80s curveball with depth and late horizontal break. The curveball is Castellano’s best bat-misser with a 20.9% swinging strike rate. His changeup has also shown the ability to miss bats. Castellano is an off-the-radar name showing performance and starter traits and could be one of the best pitching prospects you haven’t heard of. (GP) 

18. Leo Balcazar, SS, Reds

Team: High-A Dayton (Midwest)
Age: 20

Why He’s Here: .500/.500/.917 (12-for-24) 3 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBIs, 0 BB, 6 SO, 3 SB.

The Scoop: Balcazar was one of the best players in the Florida State League early in the 2023 season, but he suffered a serious knee injury that knocked him out for the remainder of the season. When he got back on the field this year, he didn’t seem to be the same player. But this month has offered glimpses of what Balcazar can be when he’s hitting with confidence. His 11 extra-base hits in August are more than he had in the other four months of the season combined. He had one home run in his first 70 games and four in his past 21. (JC)

19. Josue De Paula, OF, Dodgers

Team: High-A Great Lakes (Midwest)
Age: 19

Why He’s Here: .300/.517/.650 (6-for-20), 4 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBIs, 9 BB, 6 SO, 3-for-3 SB

The Scoop: De Paula’s season might not jump off the page, but this past week sure did. The talented teenager reached base 15 times, including nine walks and two home runs, and threw in three stolen bases for good measure. He’s one of three players in the minor leagues who are 20 or younger with 300 or more ABs, 70 or more walks and fewer than 100 strikeouts. Of that group, he’s one of just two with 20 or more stolen bases. So while his batting average isn’t eye-popping, De Paula has plenty of attributes that point to a bright future. (JN)

20. Brandon Birdsell, RHP, Cubs

Team: Triple-A Iowa (International)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 1 GS, 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 SO.

The Scoop: Birdsell earned a promotion to Triple-A Iowa in July, but he found that the new level carries plenty of challenges. In his first three starts, batters hit .410 against him. Birdsell throws plenty of strikes, but his mid-90s fastball doesn’t generally have the life needed to be a swing-and-miss pitch at the top of the zone. Batters hit .548 against his fastball in those first three starts. But this week against Toledo, Birdsell managed to beat hitters in the zone with his fastball, getting 10 swings-and-misses with his heater. It’s a first step, but Birdsell is showing he’s getting acclimated to a tougher level. (JC)

HELIUM

Luis Merejo, 1B, Guardians

Merejo’s data has popped dating back to last year in the Dominican Summer League. He started this year in the Arizona Complex League, then got the bump to Low-A Lynchburg on July 30. Since then, the results have been outstanding and he has shown bat-to-ball skills and power. Merejo’s 90th percentile exit velocity of 106.2 mph ranks in the 97th percentile of hitters and is in elite company among players 20 years of age or younger. It’s not just raw power either, as Merejo has shown a consistent ability to get to his power in games and is doing so against older competitors. His is a name to watch in 2025 as a potential breakout. (GP)

The post Ranking The 20 Hottest MLB Prospects | Hot Sheet (8/27/24) appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Dylan Crews Debut: Expectations For Top Nationals Prospect https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/dylan-crews-debut-expectations-for-top-nationals-prospect/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/dylan-crews-debut-expectations-for-top-nationals-prospect/#respond Mon, 26 Aug 2024 20:40:56 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1491839 Diving into Crews' performance so far as a minor leaguer, including his Statcast data, ahead of his Nationals' debut.

The post Dylan Crews Debut: Expectations For Top Nationals Prospect appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Dylan Crews, one of baseball’s top prospects, will make his Nationals debut tonight at 6:45 p.m. ET at home against the Yankees. It’s the second high-profile debut for a Washington prospect in as many months, following James Wood’s arrival in early July. Below, we answer four key questions to help you prepare for Crews’ initial foray against big league pitching.

Dylan Crews Is A Big Leaguer. This Is A Big Deal Right?

Absolutely. The No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft is already arriving in the majors. This means the first, second, fourth and sixth picks from the 2023 draft are already big leaguers. Only two of the top 10 picks from the 2022 draft have reached the majors so far.

Crews ranks No. 4 on the current Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list. That Top 10 is thinner than normal thanks to recent graduations, but he ranks among the best prospects in the minors.

Crews’ arrival is also notable because it is a further big step in the Nationals’ rebuild. With the 22-year-old Crews in the lineup, the Nationals now have 21-year-old outfielder James Wood, 23-year-old shortstop CJ Abrams. 24-year-old second baseman Luis Garcia and 25-year-old catcher Keibert Ruiz. Third baseman Brady House is in Triple-A as well, so the Nats’ youth movement is well on the way.

That’s vital for a team that will finish this year with a fifth-straight losing record. The Nationals’ last winning record came in 2019, the year they won the World Series.

So How Would You Describe His 2024 MiLB Season?

It’s been OK. Crews has been a slightly above-average hitter in two stops. He has yet to have a stretch of dominance like he showed throughout his college career. Crews hit .311 with five home runs in his first month of pro ball (August 2023) when he largely played at Low-A Fredericksburg. He has yet to hit .300 in any month since, and his four home runs this month is his second highest monthly total as a pro.

Crews hit .273/.343/.446 at Double-A Harrisburg and .265/.340/.455 at Triple-A Rochester.

That was significantly above the average production for the Eastern League (.238/.321/.374) and slightly better than the average hitter in the International League (.255/.345/.421).

There are a significant number of prospects who are Crews’ age or younger who have had better seasons in the upper minors. Fellow 2023 draftees Kristian Campbell, Matt Shaw, Kyle Teel and Luke Keaschall all had better seasons in Double-A or above, and Crews’ season also was topped by younger players like 20-year-old outfielder Roman Anthony, 20-year-old catcher Samuel Basallo and 21-year-old shortstop Carson Williams.

What Does The Analytical Data Say About Crews?

In many ways, Crews isn’t terribly different from the hitter we watched at LSU for three outstanding seasons. When comparing his exit velocity data year over year, there’s been no substantial drop-off in where he ranks in terms of percentiles. Crews’ 109.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity with LSU in 2023 ranked at the 99th percentile of NCAA Division I hitters. In 2024, Crews 106.2 mph 90th percentile EV ranks in the 95th percentile among MiLB hitters.

While this is a drop-off, it’s hardly noticeable when you consider the older and more talented hitter pool across all levels of the minor leagues. The 3.5 mph drop is also anticipated when moving from a metal bat to the standard wood bat in the professional game. Crews’ max exit velocity in 2024 is actually up from his 2023 max EV with LSU. In 2023, Crews max EV of 112.8 mph ranked in the 91st percentile among college hitters, while his 113.8 mph ranks in the 97th percentile this season. 

PlayerTeamzMiss%Chase%Swing%90th EVMax EVGB%FB%AirPull%
Dylan CrewsLSU15.30%14.80%36.20%109.7 mph112.8 mph46.20%26.40%16.40%
Dylan CrewsNationals15.80%28.60%49.50%106.2 mph113.8 mph40.30%30%17.20%

Looking at other numbers, his zone-miss rate is nearly identical with only a .5% drop between 2023 and 2024. While Crews has actually improved his flyball rate and airpull% (percentage of fly balls pulled), his launch angle is steeper and his groundball rate is lower as a professional. Crews was criticized for his higher ground ball rate and lack of pull-side pop entering pro ball. He has made some adjustments to improve that.

That so far has come with a tradeoff of a much more aggressive approach. Known for his discerning eye, and elite on-base ability, Crews has seen his walk rate drop from 20.6% in 2023 at LSU to 8% across all levels in 2024 as a pro.

Crews’ swing rate has jumped from 36.2% at LSU to a 49.5% swing rate as a professional in 2024. He was one of the most patient hitters in college baseball with a 2023 swing rate that ranked in the seventh percentile among D-I hitters. In pro ball this year, he ranks in the 75th percentile in swing rate.

This has led to an increase in chase rate and has affected Crews’ overall expected production. There’s a lot to like under the hood of Crews’ profile, including power and contact, but are his more aggressive swing decisions behind his drop in production as a professional? Could those losses in on-base skills return in the coming years?  

What Are Reasonable Expectations For Crews?

This gives him a chance to get acclimated to the major leagues in a relatively low-pressure environment. His bat-to-ball skills and power should play. Even if he finds himself a little over his head, it provides an offseason to-do list to prepare for 2025.

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