Fantasy https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/category/fantasy/ Baseball America is the authority on the MLB Draft, MLB prospects, college baseball, high school baseball, international free agents. Baseball America finds the future of the game of baseball. Tue, 27 Aug 2024 18:13:30 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.3 https://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bba-favicon-32x32-1.bmp Fantasy https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/category/fantasy/ 32 32 Fantasy Podcast: 2025 Stash Targets For Keeper And Redraft Leagues https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-2025-stash-targets-for-keeper-and-redraft-leagues/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-2025-stash-targets-for-keeper-and-redraft-leagues/#respond Tue, 27 Aug 2024 18:12:05 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1492674 Hosts Geoff Pontes and Dylan White reunite to dig into some intriguing targets heading into 2025 keeper and redraft fantasy baseball leagues.

The post Fantasy Podcast: 2025 Stash Targets For Keeper And Redraft Leagues appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Hark! The esteemed keeper of all things RoboScout hath returned!

Yes, folks, you’ve heard right: Dylan White makes his triumphant return to the fantasy baseball podcast after two weeks spent in a remote location learning the secrets of roto from fantasy zen masters. To commemorate the occasion, Dylan has elected to share in his newfound enlightenment by whimsically whispering secrets of the fantasy cosmos gleaned while on sabbatical.

Rejoice!

Ok, in reality, Dylan and Geoff get back together this week to talk a bunch of recent baseball news, as well as discuss some top names to know for keeper and redraft leagues for 2025. It may not be a reveal of cosmic truths, but it is useful intel for intrepid managers looking to get a leg up on the competition heading into next year!

Timestamps

  • Dylan Crews and the Nationals’ ‘future (3:00)
  • Jaison Chourio and Marcelo Mayer injury (15:00)
  • Emmanuel Rodriguez (21:00)
  • Kristian Campbell (25:00)
  • Edgar Quero (29:00)
  • Roman Anthony (31:00)
  • Dalton Rushing (39:00)
  • Brandon Birdsell (41:00)
  • Quinn Mathews (46:00)
  • Caden Dana (49:00)
  • Bubba Chandler (51:00)
  • Kumar Rocker (54:00)
  • Sleepers (58:00)

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RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 25, 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-25-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-25-2024/#respond Sun, 25 Aug 2024 20:10:22 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1490993 RoboScout's top players for this week include a first rounder who has returned to form, a DSL pitcher who is now lighting up Low-A and a sidearming Ranger.

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 25, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Over the last week, the regular season of the DSL has ended, Christian Moore (Angels) has come back down to Earth and the hottest draftee names are currently Nick Kurtz (Athletics) and Cam Smith (Cubs). We’re also in the heat of pennant races – in the majors, the minors, and your fantasy leagues. 

What else? As always, RoboScout has been watching it all for you – so let’s see…through games including August 24th.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive ability or position). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Dominican Summer League Hitters (FINAL, min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emil MoralesLAD100100
2Rainiel RodriguezSTL9194
3Eduardo BeltreMIN8590
4Jesus MadeMIL8088
5Juneiker CaceresCLE8385
6Stiven MartinezBAL7784
7Jose AndersonMIL7480
8Luis PenaMIL7480
9Edward FlorentinoPIT6979
10Yolfran CastilloTEX6979
11Juan OrtunoMIL7177
12Santiago CamachoSFG6977
13Arnaldo LantiguaLAD6377
14Queni PinedaNYY6476
15Javier SanchezTEX7976
16Jirvin MorilloCIN6676
17Justin GonzalesBOS6676
18Jhonny LevelSFG7575
19Adriander MejiaBAL6375
20Sebastian BaqueraTEX6674

With the regular DSL season now completed – and it being unlikely that any of the players will be brought over stateside into organized games with the Complex Leagues also being finished – we can dig into the players in more detail over the coming weeks. For now though, the top prospects from the DSL this year per RoboScout – with Statcast data considered in the analysis – are Emil Morales (Dodgers), Eduardo Beltre (Twins), and Jesus Made (Brewers). Each are likely Top 100 fantasy prospects.

Emil Morales had the highest wRC+ of any 17-year old, while also leading the league in home runs with 14. Under the hood, he showed an xwOBA of .447 which was nearly 3 standard deviations better than the league average.

Eduardo Beltre finished second in home runs behind Morales with 11 and himself had a reasonable approximation of Morales’ statcast metrics:

NameContact%90th EVChase%Barrel%xwOBAcon
E Morales68%102.6 mph20%27%.447
E Beltre69%102.6 mph24%21%.498

Rainiel Rodriguez (Cardinals) was just behind the two sluggers in home runs with 10 on the season. He, however, is a catcher – and even with the reports on his framing being excellent, from a fantasy perspective, investing in a teenage catcher who has not yet made it stateside is risky and I consider him a tier below the big three.

That leaves Jesus Made who had the third highest contact rate amongst all hitters with at least 25 plate appearances but also the fourth highest 90th percentile exit velocity of a 17-year old at 104 mph. Despite the high exit velocities, he only hit six home runs on the season – in no small part because he had a 50% groundball rate. Still, his xwOBAcon – which is derived from exit velocity and launch angle – was still .361, which would grade out as a 65 on the 20 to 80 scale for the DSL. Add in the fact that he stole 28 bases and he has arguably the highest fantasy ceiling of any hitter in the DSL in 2024.

Low-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Leodalis De VriesSDP100100
2Colt EmersonSEA8693
3Michael ArroyoSEA8690
4Aidan SmithSEA8589
5Blake MitchellKCR8288
6Eric BitontiMIL8187
7Kevin McGonigleDET8286
8Franklin AriasBOS8185
9Demetrio CrisantesARI7885
10Zyhir HopeLAD7785
11Robert CalazCOL8384
12Jaison ChourioCLE8084
13Lazaro MontesSEA8982
14Arjun NimmalaTOR8481
15Jonny FarmeloSEA7681
16Walker JenkinsMIN7681
17Luis MerejoCLE7680
18Josue De PaulaLAD7380
19Pablo GuerreroTEX7980
20Yeremi CabreraTEX7779
21Welbyn FranciscaCLE7877
22Eduardo QuinteroLAD7276
23Max ClarkDET7676
24Jeral PerezCHW7276
25Alfredo DunoCIN7575

Eric Bitonti (Brewers) and Franklin Arias (Red Sox) have cooled since their torrid introduction to Low-A but are still in the Top 10. As a reminder, RoboScout regresses as part of the model, therefore, it should reduce some of the volatility associated with small sample size performance is attenuated.

Bo Davidson (Giants) has been getting a lot of warranted buzz recently as the 21-year old outfielder has a 172 wRC+ with nine home runs and six stolen bases in 217 plate appearances. But it’s been recently that the sweet-swinging undrafted free agent has really been on fire with five home runs and three stolen bases in his last 76 plate appearances where he’s put up an absurd 271 wRC+, the second highest weighted runs created plus of anyone with at least 20 plate appearances since July 29th – behind only Nick Kurtz (Athletics)…more on that later.

Under the hood, Davidson has shown improvements in the last month too. Coming into August, he had a 68% contact rate which would grade as a 45 in Low-A, his chase rate was league average at 25%, but his xwOBAcon was plus at .364. In August, his contact rate has been much better at 74%, his chase rate has been 18%, and his xwOBAcon has been a preposterous .618. With his 90th percentile exit velocity sitting at 106 mph on the season with a maximum exit velocity of 110 mph, the bat speed is clearly above average. The main concern is the below average contact rate. leading to a 24% strikeout rate, which will put pressure on the batting average as he rises through the levels – though, the fact that he is playing an above-average defense in the outfield will raise his floor. Essentially, his statcast hitting profile looks a lot like Zyhir Hope (Dodgers) or Yeremi Cabrera (Rangers), but of course he is two years and three years older than those other names, lowering his ceiling.

Luis Merejo (Guardians) has hit three home runs and has a 182 wRC+ across 75 plate appearances in his time at Low-A. Unlike the archetypical Guardian infield prospect, the 18-year old has “only” an average contact rate and, again, off-brand, tremendous bat speed. With a 106 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and a 113 mph maximum exit velocity, Merejo actually bests fellow 18-year old Eric Bitonti (Brewers) on both measures. To put what Merejo is doing in context with another formerly antithetical Guardian prospect, Junior Caminero (Rays) who also reached Low-A as an 18-year old in 2022, check out their Statcast data comparison in their age 18 seasons:

Name (18yrs at CPX & A)Contact%90th EVHard Hit%Barrel%Chase%
L Merejo (2024, 275 PAs)70%106.1 mph52%21%21%
J Caminero (2022, 271 PAs)77%106.6 mph44%14%31%

It’s a clumsy comparison but Caminero was rightfully lauded for his quality of contact at such a young age – paired with better-than-average ability to make contact. Luis Merejo has arguably better quality-of-contact metrics than Caminero had at the same age, with better swing decisions – though only fringe average contact ability. Expect Merejo to be a popular off-season helium prospect name.

The highest ranked 2024 draftees at Low-A (minimum 25 plate appearances), per RoboScout – in an extremely small sample – but with Statcast data included are:

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Nick KurtzOAK6575
2Cam SmithCHC6473
3Ethan AndersonBAL6271
4Callan MossKCR6068
5Brendan JonesNYY5968
6Jared ThomasCOL6066
7Sam AntonacciCHW5766
7Ian PetrutzSTL5866
8Robert HipwellSFG5565
9Aaron ParkerTOR5965
10Duce GoursonPIT5665

Low-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Travis SykoraWSN9498
3Jonah TongNYM9196
4Quinn MathewsSTL8696
5Jarlin SusanaWSN8193
6Didier FuentesATL8393
7Alejandro RosarioTEX8593
8George KlassenLAA8192
9Santiago SuarezTBR7991
10Grant TaylorCHW7790
11Trevor HarrisonTBR7988
12Yujanyer HerreraCOL8286
13Anderson BritoHOU7184
14Eliazar DishmeyMIA7083
15Thomas WhiteMIA7282
16Rafael GonzalezHOU7482
17Kohl DrakeTEX8282
18Jace KaminskaCOL7782
19Gary Gill HillTBR8081
20Welinton HerreraCOL7081
21Josh KnothMIL7580
22Adam SerwinowskiCIN6779
23Sean LinanLAD8079
24Jackson NezuhHOU6879
25Noble MeyerMIA6878

There is no hotter pitcher in all of the minor leagues than Travis Sykora (Nationals) who has now clawed his way to the No. 2 spot on the Low-A robo-rankings. Every week, we lavish new accolades upon him – such as a 42% strikeout minus walk rate since July 29th which is the highest amongst Low-A pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched, where the next highest pitcher has a distant 36%. Or the fact that he has a 0.45 WHIP and 24.5% swinging strike rate during that span – again, the best marks by far amongst his Low-A cohort. The 2023 third round draft pick has a starter’s mix of a 95 mph fastball that has kissed 99 mph, an 83 mph slider that gets nearly 50% whiffs and a changeup/splitter that has 10 mph separation from his heater. He’s a top 20 fantasy pitching prospect.

A few weeks ago, we highlighted Anderson Brito (Astros) as the premier DSL name and, fast forward a month or so, and the righthander finds himself in the Top 15 on the Low-A robo-rankings. Although the 16.5% walk rate is too high, RoboScout likes the teenager’s 35% strikeout rate and especially loves the stuff. The righthander has a 96 mph fastball that touches 99 mph and has a super-flat -4.2 vertical approach angle, an 82 mph slider that has over a foot of glove-side sweep, and a changeup that has over a foot of arm-side fade. As suspected, the arsenal we saw in the DSL has been able to play Stateside and was not just a scenario of Brito bullying hapless teenagers in the Dominican Republic who aren’t old enough to watch Deadpool vs Wolverine without a parent’s permission. Even if Brito can’t improve his command, he has the stuff that would suit a bullpen.

Another pitcher who has been on fire over the last month has been Braxton Bragg (Orioles) who has struck out 34% of batters he’s faced over his last four starts while only walking 4%, with a 0.42 ERA over that span. Although older for the level, his stuff is above average with his primary pitch being an 81 mph slider, an ultra-flat 94 mph four seam fastball, a 93 mph two-seamer that has over 17 inches of horizontal tail from his low 5-foot release height, a change-up with nearly a foot-and-a-half of arm-side fade, and even an 87 mph cutter. Looks like another Oriole pitching developmental success as the 2023 eighth round pick out of Dallas Baptist, who signed for only $100,000, has been showing the ingredients for a back-of-the-rotation starter. Of course, we will feel a lot better about his performance once he gets to High-A Aberdeen seeing as he is already 23-years old.

High-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Michael ArroyoSEA100100
2Colt EmersonSEA9698
3Luke AdamsMIL9698
4Luke KeaschallMIN9598
5Cam CollierCIN9696
6Kevin McGonigleDET9193
7Sebastian WalcottTEX10093
8Lazaro MontesSEA9892
9Sal StewartCIN8791
10Thayron LiranzoDET8689
11Xavier IsaacTBR9389
12Bryce EldridgeSFG8789
13Josue De PaulaLAD8388
14Walker JenkinsMIN8588
15Carter JensenKCR8988
16Jhostynxon GarciaBOS8286
17Alex FreelandLAD7985
18Max ClarkDET8585
19Jesus BaezNYM8383
20Ralphy VelazquezCLE8283
21Cooper IngleCLE7682
22William BergollaPHI8382
23Brayden TaylorTBR8282
24Tre’ MorganTBR7982
25Mike BoeveMIL7381

Colt Emerson (Mariners) sits at No. 4 on the High-A list now that he has accumulated 76 plate appearances at the level, despite being 2 for his last 34 with no home runs. The shortstop just turned 19-years old a month ago and, despite the recent slump, still projects to be a high batting average, high OBP bat, averaging around 20 home runs per season.

Cam Collier (Reds) started off 2024 extremely hot but then cooled considerably. In August, the 19-year old is once again scorching the ball with a 259 wRC+ – the second highest mark at the level, behind only Thayron Liranzo (Dodgers) amongst hitters with at least 20 plate appearances in the month. After hitting four home runs in his last two games, Collier now has 19 home runs and a 134 wRC+ on the season over 458 plate appearances, which projects to be 25+ home runs at peak in the major leagues. After an extremely quiet mid-summer, Collier has re-emerged as a top 100 fantasy prospect per RoboScout.

Speaking of Liranzo (Tigers), the catcher has hit four home runs in his last 64 plate appearances in August. Liranzo is once again showing that he projects to be a 20 home run bat in the major leagues.

The hitter with the most home runs in High-A since July 29th – with 11 over 105 plate appearances – is Spencer Nivens (Royals) who also has a 215 wRC+ over that time. On the season, the 22-year old outfielder has a 28% strikeout rate which puts a huge damper on his prospect value. Even during his ungodly hot streak, Nivens has a 26% strikeout rate. Even with the ability to hit 25 to 30 home runs in the major leagues, it might not be sufficient to overcome a sub-.300 OBP.  RoboScout thinks he is only worth rostering in the deepest of leagues.

The highest ranked 2024 draftees at High-A (minimum 25 plate appearances), per RoboScout – in an extremely small sample – but with statcast data included are:

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Travis BazzanaCLE5764
2Dylan DreilingTEX5563
3Jac CaglianoneKCR4756
4Zach EhrhardBOS4550
5Gage MillerMIA5049

High-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Alejandro RosarioTEX100100
2Noah SchultzCHW9298
3Quinn MathewsSTL9598
4Luis PeralesBOS9097
5Owen MurphyATL9296
6Chase DollanderCOL9096
7Jarlin SusanaWSN9096
8Matt WilkinsonCLE10093
9Zebby MatthewsMIN8590
10George KlassenLAA8690
11Alessandro ErcolaniPIT8189
12K.C. HuntMIL9288
13Jonah TongNYM8886
14Thomas WhiteMIA8286
15Sean SullivanCOL9585
16Kohl DrakeTEX9285
17Brett WichrowskiMIL8285
18Ryan LobusTEX8284
19Winston SantosTEX7883
20Owen WildTBR8182
21Jedixson PaezBOS9381
22Yoniel CuretTBR7280
23Brandyn GarciaSEA7279
24Ethan PeckoHOU8279
25Yujanyer HerreraCOL8379

It’s only taken 35 innings but Alejandro Rosario (Rangers) now sits atop the High-A robo-rankings. The righthander has been a stalwart name in these pages for months now and has been one of the biggest breakouts of 2024 with his fastball, slider, and changeup mix. Amongst all pitchers in High-A who have thrown a minimum of 12 innings and average over 4 innings per appearance, Rosario trails only major league pitcher Zebby Matthews (Twins) in strikeout-minus-walk rate. He’s a top 10 fantasy pitching prospect per RoboScout.

The most dominant performance of the last month has belonged to Ryan Lobus (Rangers) who has had 56 strikeouts and only 5 walks since July 1 as both a long-man out of the bullpen or starter, averaging four innings per appearance. Over the last four weeks though, the righthanded side-armer has been even more dominant, with a preposterous 53% strikeout rate and 23% swinging strike rate over that period, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and sub 2.00 ERA. Although the fastball only sits 91 mph, it is a tough look – especially for righthanded batters – especially when considering that there is over 29 inches of East-West movement variance amongst his pitches. With his low 90s fastball, he may not have the stuff to play in a rotation but his unique look and profile would complement a modern bullpen.

After being a part of the Isaac Paredes trade with the Cubs, Ty Johnson (Rays) has made four appearances for High-A Bowling Green, including one as a starter, and the 22-year old righthander has struck out 45% of the batters he’s faced with a sub 1.00 WHIP and sub 1.00 ERA over 14 innings. The 2023 15th rounder has a 94 mph fastball that has touched 98 mph, along with an 84 mph slider and 82 mph changeup, all thrown with above-average extension leading them to play up. On the Cubs, his pitch mix was 55% four-seamer, 33% slider, 8% changeup, and 4% two-seamer. Since the trade to the Rays, it’s 39% four-seamer, 31% two-seamer, 28% slider and the changeup only 2%. In other words, it’s been a big increase in his sinker usage and reduction in changeup usage, possibly because the cambio was his only pitch that had a CSW% that was below league average.

Another pitcher who joined the Rays after the trade deadline was Brody Hopkins. Since July 29th, the 22-year old right hander has a solid 1.05 WHIP and 3.32 ERA with a 31% strikeout rate. The Rays again seem to be encouraging more use of his two-seamer, as his primary mix for the Mariners was 24% usage of his 96 mph, ultra-flat four-seamer and 23% usage of his 95 mph sinker, with his 87 mph slider being thrown 40% of the time. Now with High-A Bowling Green, the slider usage has decreased to only 27% of the time with his two-seamer being increased to 32%. Another bump has been more usage of his cutter, up from 5% to 12%, while his changeup has been essentially abandoned – similar to Ty Johnson above – after arriving in the Tampa Bay organization. Perhaps it is a new philosophical position for the Rays, or perhaps it is just specific to these two pitcher’s off-speed pitches themselves that is being mistaken for a trend – but it is an interesting observation nonetheless.

Double-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Roman AnthonyBOS9090
3Agustin RamirezNYY8989
4Luke KeaschallMIN8588
5Moises BallesterosCHC8986
6Kristian CampbellBOS7984
7Matthew LugoLAA8084
8Cole YoungSEA8382
9Samuel BasalloBAL8881
10Deyvison De Los SantosARI8380
11Alex FreelandLAD7379
12Edgar QueroCHW7779
13Dalton RushingLAD7178
14Ryan CliffordNYM7978
15Carter JensenKCR7977
16Jhostynxon GarciaBOS7477
17Jimmy CrooksSTL7277
18Matt ShawCHC7677
19Hao-Yu LeeDET7876
20Xavier IsaacTBR8176
21Cooper IngleCLE7075
22Colby ThomasOAK7274
23Jacob WilsonOAK6874
24Carson WilliamsTBR7674
25Alejandro OsunaTEX6973

The type of start that Christian Moore (Angels) had in Double-A was always unsustainable. Now that he has accrued 70 plate appearances for Rocket City, we can view his performance in a more dispassionate light. He still has a 180 wRC+ and five home runs – but with a contact rate of 64%, there is a bit more swing-and-miss to his game than we would like – situating him currently at No. 30 on the overall Double-A robo-rankings. The quality-of-contact – his xwOBAcon is still at an outrageously lofty .564 – is at the top of the charts and he is still projected to hit 25 home runs in the major leagues. If his strikeout rate hovers at 34%, he may only be a .240/.320 type hitter. With this two week slump, Moore drops to the 100 to 125 area amongst fantasy prospects.

RoboScout mentioned RJ Schreck (Blue Jays) a month ago as a potentially under-the-radar outfielder in a loaded Mariners system who was showing plus swing decisions, above average contact, above average outfield defense, and a 20% barrel rate. After being traded for Justin Turner, Schreck has hit five home runs, with a 197 wRC+, over 77 plate appearances, and impressed Geoff Pontes a few days ago. He’s an underrated prospect.

Double-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Zebby MatthewsMIN100100
2Noah SchultzCHW9597
3Kumar RockerTEX9694
4Quinn MathewsSTL9593
5Bubba ChandlerPIT9092
6Logan HendersonMIL9892
7Chase DollanderCOL8991
8K.C. HuntMIL9990
9Tink HenceSTL9789
10Braxton AshcraftPIT9188
11Thomas HarringtonPIT9086
12David SandlinBOS8586
13Troy MeltonDET8485
14Brandon SproatNYM8985
15Ben ShieldsNYY8784
16Ben CaspariusLAD8184
17Blade TidwellNYM8083
18Peter Van LoonBAL8582
19Jacob MisiorowskiMIL7882
20Chandler ChamplainKCR9582
21Winston SantosTEX8181
22Tyler StuartWSN8381
23Spencer SchwellenbachATL8480
24Sean SullivanCOL9380
25Caden DanaLAA8580

How often has this happened to you? You leave town for a couple weeks and return to see that Kumar Rocker (Rangers) has popped into third place on the Double-A pitchers robo-rankings. The resume is impressive: in four starts for Double-A Frisco, Rocker has struck out 41% of batters whilst only walking 5% – and his swinging strike rate of 24% leads all Double-A starting pitchers who have thrown at least 12 innings, trailing only relief aces Ben Joyce (Angels) and Andrew Walters (Guardians). Under the hood, the stuff heralds Kumar’s resurgence with his main offerings being a four-seam fastball sitting 98 mph and his tight bullet slider averaging 87 mph and which elicits above average whiffs and chases, with each pitch in his arsenal grading above average per Stuff+. There is some inconsistency in the mechanics thus far though with some release height variance amongst the pitch types of up to 3 inches – and, interestingly, extension variance too, between the fastballs and the secondaries. Not sure what all of that means yet –will astute hitters pick up on the discrepancies? – but as of now, it doesn’t seem to be hurting him in this small sample size. And it’s great to see the 2022 first round draft pick excelling in 2024. His next start is earmarked for Triple-A Round Rock.

It’s been a disappointing 2024 season for Robby Snelling (Marlins) but ever since he was the main part of the Tanner Scott trade with the Padres, the southpaw has had a 41% strikeout rate with a swinging strike rate just shy of 20% for his new club. Bienvenido a Miami, indeed. In terms of pitch mix, nothing has really changed in his three starts with the Double-A Pensacola: it’s still 59% usage of his 92 mph four-seam fastball, 25% usage of his 80 mph slider/curveball, and 16% usage of his 85 mph changeup. It’s too early to conclude anything, but perhaps Snelling just needed a change of scenery.

Triple-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1James WoodWSN100100
2Jackson HollidayBAL9392
3Coby MayoBAL8891
4Adrian Del CastilloARI7986
5Kyle ManzardoCLE8286
6Miguel VargasCHW7886
7Andy PagesLAD7685
8Chase MeidrothBOS7784
9Roman AnthonyBOS8083
10Jose FerminSTL7180
11Jacob WilsonOAK7179
12Elehuris MonteroCOL7079
13Dillon DinglerDET6978
14Shay WhitcombHOU7577
15Nacho Alvarez Jr.ATL6875
16Andres ChaparroWSN6874
17Matthew LugoLAA6674
18Moises BallesterosCHC7374
19Luis MatosSFG6774
20Junior CamineroTBR7074
21Deyvison De Los SantosARI7873
22Joey LoperfidoHOU6573
23Jerar EncarnacionSFG6673
24Agustin RamirezMIA6973
25Jasson DominguezNYY6573

The most exciting trio of hitters on a team in Triple-A right now has to be Roman Anthony, Chase Meidroth and Kristian Campbell on the Worcester Red Sox. With seven home runs amongst them since July 29 and with each of them being 22-years old or younger, the future looks very bright for Beantown – even without including Marcelo Mayer.

Max Muncy (Athletics) and Nick Allen (Athletics) have been quite hot for Triple-A Las Vegas as they’ve both hit five home runs each in August. Muncy, at just 21-years old, projects to be an above average hitter in the major leagues with 20+ home run power. Although athletic enough to play shortstop now, he seems a bit out of position there defensively and may end up at second base on account of his average arm strength.

Congratulations to Shay Whitcomb (Astros) who has been a mainstay in the Triple-A robo-rankings and finally earned a major league call up after 25 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and excellent infield defense.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9191
3Zebby MatthewsMIN8888
4Tylor MegillNYM8886
5Bubba ChandlerPIT8586
6Jack LeiterTEX8284
7David FestaMIN8881
8Will WarrenNYY8081
9Logan HendersonMIL8580
10Chayce McDermottBAL8179
11Thomas HarringtonPIT8077
12Carson SpiersCIN7677
13Tobias MyersMIL7477
14Yilber DiazARI8075
15AJ Smith-ShawverATL7775
16Elieser HernandezLAD7475
17Braxton AshcraftPIT7674
18Louie VarlandMIN7774
19Robert GasserMIL7174
20Cade PovichBAL8374
21Blake SnellSFG7473
22Alek ManoahTOR7672
23Chad PatrickMIL7372
24Reid DetmersLAA8671
25Alec MarshKCR7871

Back on July 15, Eli Ben-Porat highlighted the improvements that Sean Burke (White Sox) made to his arsenal, essentially adding two mph to each of his four pitches. In his last five starts, the results have started catching up to the improvement in Stuff as he has struck out 38% of batters with a swinging strike rate of 15.5%. The command continues to be the main concern as, even during this dominant streak, the walk rate is still a bit high at 9%. All in all, the results point to a starting pitcher with the potential for No. 3 potential in his peak years. With Ky Bush and Jonathan Cannon seemingly given free rein in the White Sox rotation, don’t be surprised if we see Burke debut in the final month of the season. The Sox would have to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate.

Congratulations to Ben Casparius (Dodgers) who was written about in these pages a few months ago when he was still in Double-A. Although he didn’t make an appearance, the 2021 fifth round pick did get called up and was on the major league roster for three games.

Bubba Chandler (Pirates) keeps putting in his bid for a late season call-up as well, as the 21-year old right hander has struck out 23 batters and only walked five in his three Triple-A starts totalling 18 innings. In last week’s RoboScout Top 100 of non-debuted prospects, Chandler appeared at No. 11. The Pirates are putting together a formidable rotation.

In his most recent four starts for Triple-A Toledo, Ty Madden (Tigers) has a swinging strike rate of 20%, the highest for a starting pitcher since July 29th. As a result, he got a call-up to the big leagues this weekend. RoboScout sees a No. 3 or No. 4 starting pitcher with a 94-mph four-seam fastball, 83-mph bullet slider, an 87-mph cutter, a changeup, and even a curveball with all four secondaries getting better-than-league-average whiffs.

Happy bidding!

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 25, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Fantasy Podcast: Talking Dynasty Baseball Strategy With Dan Greenberg https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-talking-dynasty-baseball-strategy-with-dan-greenberg/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-talking-dynasty-baseball-strategy-with-dan-greenberg/#respond Tue, 20 Aug 2024 14:16:54 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1487509 Geoff Pontes welcomes an experienced dynasty baseball manager onto the podcast to discuss potential buys and sells heading into next season.

The post Fantasy Podcast: Talking Dynasty Baseball Strategy With Dan Greenberg appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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This week on the Baseball America Fantasy Podcast, Geoff Pontes welcomes Dan Greenberg onto the program to talk dynasty strategy heading into the final month of the season, as well as offseason planning. Dan is an experienced dynasty manger who loves to dive into strategy, and we pick his brain on some potential buys and sells heading into next season.

  • Intro (0:00)
  • Hunter Greene (1:45)
  • Freddie Freeman (4:00)
  • Austin Riley (7:00)
  • Alex Bregman (10:00)
  • Pete Fairbanks (13:00)
  • Jared Jones (17:00)
  • Tyler Glasnow (22:00)
  • Jacob Wilson (26:00)
  • Connor Norby (30:00)
  • Older players to target late this season (35:00)
  • Bounce-back players coming off injury or poor performance (40:00)
  • Young MLB players with playing time concerns (48:00)

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RoboScout Top 100 Dynasty Targets (Aug. 18, 2024) https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-100-dynasty-targets-aug-18-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-100-dynasty-targets-aug-18-2024/#respond Sun, 18 Aug 2024 15:33:25 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1485805 This week Dylan White updates RoboScout's Top 100 dynasty targets

The post RoboScout Top 100 Dynasty Targets (Aug. 18, 2024) appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Every week, we put out a Top 25, per level, of the hitters and pitchers as determined by RoboScout. This list is derived by ranking the players within the level based on their minor league seasonal performance and applying park factors, regression, aging curves, and projecting expected fantasy value, considering their long term and peak performance. Underlying StatCast data is also folded into the results to nudge the ranking based on the surface stats, upward or downward based on the Statcast data that are most correlated with future fantasy performance.

Defense is not considered, nor is the “depth chart” of the major league club, nor previous year’s performance

Our weekly articles attempt to highlight some of the interesting prospect names – based on seasonal performance or based on recent movement in the rankings – and do a deep dive into some of the things that RoboScout doesn’t look at or that are beyond the “number” that RoboScout outputs to help frame the performance into a dynasty league context.

What the weekly articles haven’t done is aggregate all of the numbers into one “master” list. For example, if Emil Morales (Dodgers) is the top DSL hitter per RoboScout, is he a better target than Alex Freeland (Dodgers) who is the 43rd name on the Triple-A list?

Not doing this was by design for various reasons. For one, if one were to project fantasy value in the major leagues for the next three years, probably zero of the DSL hitters would even get a single plate appearance in the major leagues. But of course, they have value as prospects in a dynasty league. Also, deciding on how one wants to allocate your minor league roster slots amongst hitters and pitchers is also an important consideration in dynasty leagues, and something that might not be best served by having a master list of “the Top 100 Prospects per RoboScout”.

Nothing those caveats, I created exactly that list at the beginning of July and have now updated it. I’ve taken the estimated likelihood of making it to the major leagues, projected performance at peak, and fantasy value projected to be earned at peak – and ranked the hitters and pitchers accordingly – while also not considering defense or the depth chart of the parent club.

Of course, this list will be controversial and is not meant to be the end of the conversation or be the primary input for one’s waiver wire claims; for example, you probably shouldn’t trade Jesus Made (Brewers) – who is not on the list – for Brewers pitcher Chad Patrick (who would be #101 on this list if we extended it further. Also, you will see that Luis Perales (Red Sox) and Owen Murphy (Braves) appear on this list because RoboScout does not know that they are currently recovering from Tommy John surgery and is only looking at their 2024 performance on the season and projecting out. In other words, please apply the appropriate mental adjustments to the output – knowing that these are just the “agnostic” results of RoboScout.

Note, I also removed any prospects who have debuted in the major leagues. Therefore, James Wood (Nationals), Paul Skenes (Pirates), and Jackson Holliday (Orioles) have been removed – even though they would be the top three names, respectively. It also has removed players like Shay Whitcomb (Astros) and Dillon Dingler (Tigers)

To help provide some “performance” context, the estimated conservative peak projection is also listed beside each name, with data through August 16th.

#NameTeamAgeLevelPBA / K%OBP / BB%wRC+ / GB%HR / ERASB / WHIP
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN21AA .264.3671292314
2Colt EmersonSEA18A+ .277.358112188
3Roman AnthonyBOS20AA .264.3451212612
4Leodalis De VriesSDP17A .269.348113309
5Moises BallesterosCHC20AA .282.354122242
6Noah SchultzCHW20AAP24%6%49%3.531.15
7Michael ArroyoSEA19A+ .259.336109285
8Agustin RamirezNYY22AA .274.3471233114
9Samuel BasalloBAL19AA .277.349121246
10Sebastian WalcottTEX18A+ .257.3331062212
11Bubba ChandlerPIT21AAAP24%6%46%3.761.16
12Kevin McGonigleDET19A+ .281.3531101614
13Cole YoungSEA20AA .278.3531171812
14Javier SanojaMIA21AAA .293.360119149
15Luke KeaschallMIN21AA .269.3461161913
16Christian MooreLAA21AA .258.335117274
17Logan HendersonMIL22AAP24%6%40%3.781.15
18Kristian CampbellBOS22AA .269.3491242013
19Luke AdamsMIL20A+ .258.3431042118
20Alejandro RosarioTEX22A+P23%6%47%3.571.19
21Chase MeidrothBOS22AAA .279.363115119
22Quinn MathewsSTL23A+P25%8%51%3.681.21
23Luis PeralesBOS21A+P24%8%47%3.821.25
24Tink HenceSTL21AAP25%7%47%3.501.17
25Jarlin SusanaWSN20A+P23%8%57%3.621.26
26Franklin AriasBOS18A .271.3451172322
27Lazaro MontesSEA19A+ .255.330106292
28Matt WilkinsonCLE21AP30%8%45%3.361.11
29Xavier IsaacTBR20AA .257.3391242610
30Owen MurphyATL20A+P26%7%39%3.981.17
31Edgar QueroCHW21AA .269.338113262
32Chase DollanderCOL22A+P26%8%40%4.021.22
33Hao-Yu LeeDET21AA .269.3381152112
34Bryce EldridgeSFG19A+ .250.324101263
35Matthew LugoBOS23AA .261.3361192714
36Robert CalazCOL18A .268.3451233010
37Blake MitchellKCR19A .244.3271062812
38Eric BitontiMIL18A .257.337116295
39Cam CollierCIN19A+ .249.32499241
40David SandlinBOS23AAP24%7%40%4.071.22
41Carson WilliamsTBR21AA .253.3311142219
42Sal StewartCIN20A+ .261.336100177
43Aidan SmithSEA19A .254.3311062617
44Jaison ChourioCLE19A .270.3521071423
45Arjun NimmalaTOR18A .241.313102314
46Pablo GuerreroTEX17A .257.326110273
47Zyhir HopeLAD19A .250.326104267
48Kumar RockerTEX24AAP23%8%47%3.911.23
49Eduardo TaitPHI17A .273.336112264
50Ryan CliffordNYM20AA .247.335108233
51Carter JensenKCR20AA .261.342114209
52Max ClarkDET19A+ .261.3321031814
53Josue De PaulaLAD19A+ .254.331971810
54James TriantosCHC21AA .278.3371091426
55Matt ShawCHC22AA .265.3391132118
56Axiel PlazPIT18A .244.317100362
57Dalton RushingLAD23AA .258.332114261
58Jonah TongNYM21AP29%9%47%3.611.17
59Walker JenkinsMIN19A+ .265.33699166
60Braxton AshcraftPIT24AAP21%6%45%3.981.23
61Jesus BaezNYM19A+ .262.326100256
62Thayron LiranzoDET20A+ .246.32797231
63Thomas HarringtonPIT22AAP21%5%40%4.081.20
64Alex FreelandLAD22AA .257.3361091817
65Demetrio CrisantesARI19A .265.3351051613
66Yeremi CabreraTEX18CPX .255.3341033514
67Marcelo MayerBOS21AA .264.3341121711
68Elehuris MonteroCOL25AAA .247.317110212
69Henry BolteOAK20AA .245.3251142020
70Max MuncyOAK21AAA .253.325108216
71Jimmy CrooksSTL22AA .262.336115194
72Travis SykoraWSN20AP25%8%42%3.681.20
73William BergollaCHW19A+ .273.335971120
74Brandon SproatNYM23AAP22%8%52%3.891.27
75Sean SullivanCOL21A+P22%5%40%3.861.16
76K.C. HuntMIL23A+P25%7%43%3.751.19
77Kohl DrakeTEX23A+P24%7%42%3.851.21
78Angel GenaoCLE20A+ .260.321981712
79George KlassenPHI22A+P25%9%51%3.801.25
80Welbyn FranciscaCLE18A .269.341110239
81Troy MeltonDET23AAP20%7%45%4.151.28
82Chandler ChamplainKCR24AAP24%7%43%3.851.20
83Jadher AreinamoMIL20A+ .269.328981818
84Jhostynxon GarciaBOS21A+ .246.30997299
85C.J. KayfusCLE22AA .256.332115193
86Samuel ZavalaCHW19A+ .250.33290188
87Tre’ MorganTBR21A+ .269.3331011512
88Ben ShieldsNYY25AAP21%8%49%4.041.28
89Colby ThomasOAK23AA .258.3211092913
90Harry FordSEA21AA .255.3351061419
91Thomas WhiteMIA19A+P19%7%49%4.051.30
92Mikey RomeroBOS20A+ .254.31496232
93Didier FuentesATL19AP20%7%42%4.001.26
94Emil MoralesLAD17DSL .241.32199776
95Cooper PrattMIL19A+ .257.325981416
96Peter Van LoonBAL25AAP24%9%44%4.141.28
97Alessandro ErcolaniPIT20A+P20%7%42%4.351.30
98Moises ChacePHI21A+P23%9%46%4.301.33
99Jonny FarmeloSEA19A .248.326962017
100Alfredo DunoCIN18A .246.32198204

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RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 11, 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-11-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-11-2024/#respond Sun, 11 Aug 2024 16:22:14 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1480808 This week's edition of RoboScout's look at baseball's top prospects highlights a young Dodgers international signing who is emerging.

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 11, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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It is trade deadline day in some of my Dynasty Leagues and I expect a lot of players – and prospects – to be involved in some deals today. We are also starting to accumulate a body of work for some draftees, with some hitters reaching 20 plate appearances or more – though still a bit low for the below lists – but they have all been overshadowed by Christian Moore (Angels) and his dream-like start to his professional career. RoboScout tries to stay dispassionate but even they can’t contain their excitement at Moore’s start and their CPU fan has been whirring for days.

The lists below are for games through Friday, August 9.

As always, RoboScout has been watching it all for you.

Note that the Complex League hitter and pitcher lists are no longer being shown since their seasons are over. To see the final rankings for the Complex League, click here.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive ability or position). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with Statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Dominican Summer League Hitters (min 20 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emil MoralesLAD100100
2Rainiel RodriguezSTL9395
3Eduardo BeltreMIN8792
4Jesus MadeMIL8087
5Juneiker CaceresCLE8687
6Stiven MartinezBAL7682
7Luis PenaMIL7781
8Jose AndersonMIL7680
9Edward FlorentinoPIT6979
10Yolfran CastilloTEX7079
11Juan OrtunoMIL7077
12Santiago CamachoSFG7176
13Sebastian BaqueraTEX6776
14Elvin GarciaBAL6676
15Jirvin MorilloCIN6875
16Arnaldo LantiguaLAD6275
17Ching-Hsien KoLAD5974
18Justin GonzalesBOS6574
19Adriander MejiaBAL6173
20Iverson AllenPIT6173

 The top three hitters each hit a home run – with Eduardo Beltre (Twins) hitting two – as the top five continue to separate from the rest of the DSL hitting pack as their own tier.

Santiago Camacho (Giants) and Sebastian Baquera (Rangers), two catchers who appear adjacent to each other on the rankings, both show above-average receiving ability in addition to their hitting ability. This is something that RoboScout doesn’t know when calculating their RoboScore.

The most interesting new name – who appears after having now accrued 20 plate appearances – is Taiwanese international signee Ching-Hsien Ko (Dodgers), a 6-foot-3-inch outfielder. After signing in June, reportedly for around $700,000, Ko has already smashed a home run and shows a knack for barreling the ball. Although the sample size is extremely small, the center fielder has shown a very patient approach with a chase rate in the single digits, though his contact rate and his exit velocities are so far only average. RoboScout will be keeping a keen eye on him and his high ceiling.

Low-A Hitters (min 35 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Leodalis De VriesSDP100100
2Eric BitontiMIL9197
3Franklin AriasBOS9295
4Colt EmersonSEA8792
5Michael ArroyoSEA8690
6Blake MitchellKCR8387
7Kevin McGonigleDET8286
8Aidan SmithTBR8285
9Zyhir HopeLAD7783
10Eduardo TaitPHI9183
11Jaison ChourioCLE7982
12Demetrio CrisantesARI7582
13Jonny FarmeloSEA7781
14Starlyn CabaPHI7981
15Lazaro MontesSEA9081
16Arjun NimmalaTOR8280
17Walker JenkinsMIN7680
18Josue De PaulaLAD7480
19Axiel PlazPIT8779
20Jhonny SeverinoPIT7678
21Jeral PerezLAD7376
22Ralphy VelazquezCLE7575
23Alfredo DunoCIN7575
24Jesus BaezNYM7674
25Bryce EldridgeSFG7073

Eric Bitonti (Brewers) has been on fire since being promoted to Low-A Carolina with five home runs in his first 40 plate appearances. Although that power explosion has also come with a 30% strikeout rate, the 18-year old third baseman shows good swing decisions as evidenced by his 19% walk rate at the Complex. That translates to a floor of a three true outcomes hitter – with the high-end potential for 25 to 30 home run power in the major leagues, with a batting average around .250 and an on base percentage around .340 to .350.

Blake Mitchell (Royals) hit three home runs this past week and climbs up to sixth on the Low-A list. With Carter Jensen, the Royals have solid RoboScout-approved catchers in the system.

The three 2024 draftees who have a minimum of 20 plate appearances at Low-A and who RoboScout has been watching early, despite the extremely small sample sizes, are Kyle DeBarge (Twins), JJ Wetherholt (Cardinals) and Carson DeMartini (Phillies). DeBarge, the 33rd overall pick who signed with the Twins overslot for $2.4 million and DeMartini, a fourth rounder, are showing similar high-contact, average power, and low chase rate profiles thus far in their professional debuts. That tracks for DeBarge who was drafted with the reputation of a contact-oriented hitter, but DeMartini was drafted for power from the hot corner and only had a 70% contact rate over his collegiate career with a particularly eyebrow-raising 28% strikeout rate in his draft year. At Low-A Clearwater though, DeMartini has only struck out 15% of the time with a contact rate of 86%. Whether this is an approach change remains to be seen, but with a home run, three stolen bases and a 253 wRC+ in his first 21 plate appearances, he already has RoboScout’s attention.

Wetherholt, the seventh overall draft pick of 2024 hit his first professional home run this week, has a 90% exit velocity of over 105 mph, has been showing great swing decisions with only a 10% chase rate, and has a walk-to-strikeout ratio of five to two. So far, he’s been delivering everything the Cardinals could have hoped.

Low-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Jonah TongNYM9196
3Quinn MathewsSTL8695
4Travis SykoraWSN9195
5Jarlin SusanaWSN8193
6Alejandro RosarioTEX8593
7Didier FuentesATL8392
8Santiago SuarezTBR8092
9George KlassenLAA8192
10Grant TaylorCHW7790
11Trevor HarrisonTBR8290
12Yujanyer HerreraMIL8485
13Eliazar DishmeyMIA7183
14Thomas WhiteMIA7282
15Jace KaminskaCOL7782
16Kohl DrakeTEX8281
17Sean LinanLAD8181
18Welinton HerreraCOL7080
19Adam SerwinowskiCIN6880
20Gary Gill HillTBR7980
21Jose GonzalezTEX7380
22Mavis GravesPHI8579
23Jackson NezuhHOU6878
24Bishop LetsonMIL6778
25Noble MeyerMIA6878

Travis Sykora (Nationals) continues to climb, now with the fourth highest RoboCast score for the level, up from seventh last week and passing org-mate Jarlin Susana. There is no hotter pitcher at Low-A, as Sykora has fanned an incredible 48% of batters he’s faced over his last six starts with a microscopic 0.61 WHIP. Last week he was a top 125 fantasy prospect. This week, he is probably a top 100 fantasy prospect.

An interesting deep-league name has emerged in the Dodger organization: Roque Gutierrez, a 21-year old Mexican right hander. On the season, his 77.2 innings for Low-A Rancho Cucamonga with a 1.40 WHIP and 5.33 ERA do not look particularly compelling. However, since June 28 – when he had a 1.69 WHIP and 6.43 ERA – he has made seven starts, averaging 5 innings in each, and has struck out 38% of batters, walked only 8%, for a 1.08 WHIP and 4.04 ERA. Gutierrez has a 93 mph fastball, a mid-80s slider, a mid-80s cutter, and a splitter – while also occasionally mixing in a curveball. If his recent success is indicative of his true talent, it’s a potential back of the rotation profile.

High-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Michael ArroyoSEA100100
2Luke AdamsMIL9597
3Luke KeaschallMIN9194
4Kevin McGonigleDET9394
5Sebastian WalcottTEX9993
6Sal StewartCIN8488
7Lazaro MontesSEA9688
8Xavier IsaacTBR8988
9Walker JenkinsMIN8487
10Carter JensenKCR8586
11Josue De PaulaLAD8186
12Bryce EldridgeSFG8084
13Jhostynxon GarciaBOS7883
14Alex FreelandLAD7683
15Max ClarkDET8582
16Cooper PrattMIL7981
17Cam CollierCIN7979
18Mike BoeveMIL7179
19Angel GenaoCLE7578
20Samuel ZavalaCHW7878
21William BergollaPHI7878
22Henry BolteOAK7578
23Cooper IngleCLE7178
24Tre’ MorganTBR7578
25Allan CastroBOS7077

Bryce Eldridge (Giants) started off slowly in 2024 after getting tremendous buzz heading into the year. Focusing solely on hitting, Eldridge has put up plus to plus-plus exit velocities but at the expense of fringe-average contact. That trade-off is typically worth it, but in 2024 the results hadn’t really caught up to the underlying metrics. Last week though, Eldridge hit a home run and stole a base, raising his High-A wRC+ from 125 to 151. The power is in the 25 to 30 home run range – the question is whether he can manage his contact rate as he rises through the levels.

Jesus Baez (Mets) started off extremely strongly in Low-A list but has gradually tapered off as the season has worn on, ultimately finishing the level at 123 wRC+ with 10 home runs and eight stolen bases over 284 plate appearances as a 19-year old before being promoted to High-A Brooklyn. Under the hood, Baez was showing a better 90th percentile exit velocity than fellow 19-year olds Lazaro Montes (Mariners) and Walker Jenkins (Twins) while also posting a higher barrel rate and xwOBAcon than both of them. After 32 plate appearances in High-A – where he did manage to hit a home run and steal a base – Baez’s season is now done after undergoing knee surgery. On the whole, RoboScout sees him as a league average bat with 25 home run potential. Splitting his defensive time pretty much equally between third base and shortstop – with a little bit of second base thrown in – it’s more than likely that Baez will end up at the hot corner with his plus arm. One to watch in 2025.

High-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Noah SchultzCHW92100
2Jarlin SusanaWSN93100
3Alejandro RosarioTEX9699
4Quinn MathewsSTL9599
5Luis PeralesBOS9098
6Owen MurphyATL9298
7Chase DollanderCOL9097
8Matt WilkinsonCLE10095
9Zebby MatthewsMIN8592
10George KlassenPHI8591
11K.C. HuntMIL9289
12Jonah TongNYM8888
13Kohl DrakeTEX9488
14Thomas WhiteMIA8388
15Alessandro ErcolaniPIT7887
16Brett WichrowskiMIL8286
17Sean SullivanCOL9586
18Winston SantosTEX7784
19Jaden HammDET8783
20Owen WildTBR8082
21Brandyn GarciaSEA7381
22Jedixson PaezBOS9280
23Austin PetersonCLE8180
24Luis MoralesOAK7180
25Ethan PeckoHOU8180

Jarlin Susana (Nationals) climbs his way into a tie for highest pitcher at the level with another excellent week. If you want to read more, see last weeks’ article.

Yoniel Curet (Rays) is just outside the Top 25 but he has been pitching extremely well over the last six weeks. On the season he has a 29% strikeout rate and a gaudy 12% walk rate leading to a 1.25 WHIP and 3.45 ERA in almost 90 innings. Over his last six starts, he has a 36% strikeout rate, a 9% walk rate, and a 1.07 WHIP and 0.99 ERA over 27 innings. He is 29th in the Rays Top 30 where we graded him out as having a plus-plus fastball and plus slider but only a 40 grade on his control. If he can maintain the improvements that he has made over the last six weeks, he will cut down his reliever risk considerably.

In the Rangers Top 30, Canadian lefthander Mitch Bratt sits at 24th on the strength of his advanced pitchability with the opportunity to be a back of the rotation starter if he could gain arm strength. In 2023, at High-A his fastball maxed out at 91.8 mph; in 2024, he averages 91.3 mph and has touched 95.5 mph with 10% of his fastballs being faster than 93 mph – leading to an improvement in Stuff+ on our internal model by over half a standard deviation. In his last three starts for High-A Hickory, Bratt threw 16.1 innings, striking out 24 and only walking three batters before earning the promotion to Double-A Frisco. In his two starts at Double-A, he has a strikeout minus walk rate of 19% over 11 innings, and has continued to show great control with a Ball% of 33%. Interestingly enough, Bratt’s major league projection based on his High-A season is actually slightly better than the projection for his teammate Winston Santos – with a better WHIP but slightly fewer strikeouts than Santos. In other words, if you prefer pitchability over “stuff”, RoboScout says it’s ok to lean Bratt.

Double-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Agustin RamirezNYY8990
3Luke KeaschallMIN8588
4Roman AnthonyBOS8687
5Moises BallesterosCHC8887
6Xavier IsaacTBR9187
7Carter JensenKCR8685
8Matthew LugoBOS8084
9Cole YoungSEA8282
10Samuel BasalloBAL8882
11Kristian CampbellBOS7581
12Deyvison De Los SantosARI8280
13Alex FreelandLAD7380
14Carson WilliamsTBR8079
15Edgar QueroCHW7679
16Ryan CliffordNYM7878
17Dalton RushingLAD7178
18Hao-Yu LeeDET7878
19Matt ShawCHC7577
20C.J. KayfusCLE7275
21Colby ThomasOAK7175
22Brayden TaylorTBR7975
23Jacob WilsonOAK6775
24Henry BolteOAK7273
25Tyler LocklearSEA6773

The story of the minor leagues this past week has been the incredible tear that Christian Moore (Angels), the eighth overall draft pick a few weeks ago, has been on – as the second baseman belted six home runs in his first 33 plate appearances in professional baseball. What he has done at Double-A Rocket City alone – five home runs, a 438 wRC+ and a .742 xwOBAcon in 21 plate appearances – is making it more and more likely that the ultra-aggressive Angels call him up to the major leagues before September. The 90th percentile exit velocity is 108.7 mph and he has a maximum of 112.6 mph already – already higher than what Wyatt Langford has been able to register in his professional career. Any skepticism surrounding whether he could hit with wooden bats should be now considered dispelled. It’s extremely early but Moore has to be considered a top 25 fantasy prospect with this fairy tale beginning to his professional career, as he’s showing the potential for 25 to 30 home runs from the keystone.

Now that he qualifies for the list, Xavier Isaac (Rays) debuts in sixth place. Although the swing-and-miss is very real, his body of work from High-A where he hit 15 home runs as a 20 year old, still has RoboScout projecting him to be an above average hitter with the potential for 25+ home runs annually in the big leagues. The concern though is that he becomes at best a three true outcomes hitter, as he has had a higher-than-30% strikeout rate in 2024 with only a 60% contact rate for the season. Again, the quality of the contact so far outweighs the contact rate but as he is now in Double-A, he will face a true test as to whether the smacking can transcend the hacking.

In these pages, we’ve talked a lot about how the Astros adhere to the above philosophy of big power superseding fringe-average contact rates and this being their prospect hitter archetype. Although Zach Cole (Astros) isn’t quite in the top 25 for the level, the 23-year old outfielder definitely is on-brand for the organization, and has been on a bit of a hot streak the past six weeks with six home runs, three stolen bases, and a 203 wRC+ in his last 76 plate appearances.  As you would expect, he has an above average to plus quality of contact, as measured by 90th percentile exit velocity, xwOBAcon and barrel rate – and, as you might expect, has a strikeout rate above 30%, and a corresponding contact rate just shy of 70%. This will lead to streakiness and right now Cole is on a hot one. He is probably a Top 400 fantasy prospect, but be prepared for volatility.

This week it was announced that Luke Keaschall (Twins) would be out for the rest of the season for Tommy John surgery. One of the biggest RoboScout breakouts of the year, Keaschall had a 185 wRC+ with seven home runs and 14 stolen bases in High-A over 197 plate appearances and then proceeded to blast another eight bombs and steal nine more bases in Double-A with a 137 wRC+ over 267 more plate appearances. That performance as a 21-year old projects him to be a .270/.350 bat with 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases in the major leagues. Under the hood, he showed plus swing decisions and plus contact with average bat speed but an above average knack for the barrel. A top 25 fantasy prospect for RoboScout heading into 2025.

Double-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Zebby MatthewsMIN100100
2Noah SchultzCHW98100
3Logan HendersonMIL9893
4Bubba ChandlerPIT9092
5Chase DollanderCOL8991
6David SandlinBOS9091
7Tink HenceSTL9890
8Braxton AshcraftPIT9088
9Quinn MathewsSTL8987
10Thomas HarringtonPIT9086
11Brandon SproatNYM8885
12Troy MeltonDET8385
13Ben ShieldsNYY8784
14Ben CaspariusLAD8183
15Blade TidwellNYM7983
16Chandler ChamplainKCR9582
17Jacob MisiorowskiMIL7782
18Winston SantosTEX7980
19Spencer SchwellenbachATL8480
20Brandyn GarciaSEA7780
21Caden DanaLAA8480
22Kyle McGowinCHC8279
23Zach PenrodBOS8779
24Yilber DiazARI8378
25Carson PalmquistCOL8378

Now that they both qualify for the Double-A list, Chase Dollander (Rockies) and David Sandlin (Red Sox) enter the Top Six. We’ve talked about Dollander quite a bit this year, as he is seventh on the High-A list after throwing 70 innings with a 28% strikeout minus walk rate and excellent 18% swinging strike rate as a 22-year old for Spokane. In his first three starts for Double-A Hartford, he hasn’t been as effective yet, with a 24% strikeout rate, an 11% walk rate and only an 11% swinging strike rate which is actually below average for the league. In aggregate for the season though, he still projects as a mid-rotation starter.

Sandlin, on the other hand, has started his small sample Double-A stint quite well with a 34% strikeout rate and only a 2% walk rate – though with two home runs over his 12 innings of work across three starts. Slightly off-brand for the Red Sox, Sandlin throws his four seam fastball primarily – but why wouldn’t he when it sits 96 mph and has touched 100 mph? Because of the high-velocity fastball, his tight 85 mph slider and 85 mph sweeper – the second of which has over 16 inches of horizontal break – both play up and grade out very well. He also throws a splitter – as well as a curveball and cutter that each have discrete movement profiles from his slider and from his sweeper. RoboScout sees a back of the rotation starter but with stuff that, if it continues to advance and actualize into expected results, could get him to be a mid-rotation starter. All in all, I think he is underrated on most lists and should be somewhere in the 150 to 175 range for fantasy prospects.

In Double-A this season, Parker Messick (Guardians) has a strikeout minus walk rate of 28% and a swinging strike rate of 17% over his 33 innings of work which are both higher than the marks put up by Zebby Matthews (Twins), Noah Schultz (White Sox) and Bubba Chandler (Pirates) at the same level. However, when combined with the 20% mark that he put up in his 68 innings at High-A Lake County, his aggregated body of work lowers his projection to that of an up-and-down starter. If you look only at his Double-A Akron results though, the 23-year old lefthander – with his low slot release but high extension – profiles more as a back-of-the-rotation starter with a chance for more. Funnily enough, fellow Guardian southpaw Logan Allen had a nearly identical strikeout and walk rate as Messick at the same age in 2022 at Akron. In your dynasty leagues where he is not yet rostered, keep an eye on him: if he has a few more solid starts, considering that he is already in Double-A, there is a very high likelihood that he will play a role for the Guardians in 2025.

A belated congratulations to Logan Henderson (Brewers) – as the third ranked RoboScout Double-A pitcher earned a promotion to Triple-A Nashville!

Triple-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1James WoodWSN100100
2Jackson HollidayBAL9392
3Coby MayoBAL8891
4Kyle ManzardoCLE8388
5Adrian Del CastilloARI7986
6Miguel VargasCHW7886
7Jose FerminSTL7584
8Andy PagesLAD7482
9Chase MeidrothBOS7481
10Elehuris MonteroCOL7381
11Jacob WilsonOAK7078
12Dillon DinglerDET6978
13Shay WhitcombHOU7677
14Angel MartinezCLE7576
15Moises BallesterosCHC7476
16Agustin RamirezMIA7376
17Deyvison De Los SantosMIA8276
18Javier SanojaMIA7575
19Matthew LugoLAA6875
20Henry DavisPIT7274
21Joey LoperfidoHOU6573
22Niko KavadasLAA6373
23Jonatan ClaseTOR6973
24Jerar EncarnacionSFG6672
25Edgar QueroCHW6972

Checking in on some prospects that have only recently been promoted to Triple-A, James Triantos and Matt Shaw of the Cubs have both struggled in their first four games with a negative 18 wRC+ and 4 wRC+ respectively. Obviously this is not anything to be concerned about and RoboScout still sees them as league-average hitters with each projected to have around 40 home runs plus stolen bases.

Dalton Rushing (Dodgers) was promoted to Triple-A and has been playing primarily left field, suggesting he may be called up to the major leagues for the playoff push. So far, he hasn’t gotten much going either with no home runs and a 33 wRC+ in his first 20 plate appearances. Again, with one of the most solidly “red” statcast profiles in all of the minor leagues, RoboScout sees the catcher/outfielder as a fairly safe above average bat with 25 to 30 home run potential. Easily a top 50 fantasy prospect irrespective of what position he ultimately plays.

After a less-than-compelling 2024 in Colorado and subsequent demotion, Elehuris Montero (Rockies) has been en fuego at Triple-A Albuquerque with a 203 wRC+ and ten home runs in 132 plate appearances. Those ten home runs are tied for second-most at the level since June 28th, behind only the 11 from Jordan Diaz (Athletics) and tied with Colby Thomas (Athletics) and Adrian Del Castillo (Diamondbacks). It should only be a matter of time before Montero is back up with the parent club.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9191
3Zebby MatthewsMIN8788
4David FestaMIN8980
5Will WarrenNYY8080
6Chayce McDermottBAL8179
7Tylor MegillNYM8178
8Jack LeiterTEX7577
9Carson SpiersCIN7677
10Tobias MyersMIL7476
11Chad PatrickMIL7775
12Louie VarlandMIN7975
13Yilber DiazARI7974
14Cade PovichBAL8574
15Elieser HernandezLAD7474
16Braxton AshcraftPIT7674
17Robert GasserMIL7173
18Blake SnellSFG7472
19AJ Smith-ShawverATL7472
20Alek ManoahTOR7672
21Slade CecconiARI7871
22Quinn PriesterPIT8471
23Cristian MenaARI8071
24Reid DetmersLAA8570
25Matt ManningDET6870

Zebby Matthews (Twins) walked a batter in his last start and now has an unsightly 1.2% walk rate over his 19 innings at Triple-A. With Joe Ryan potentially missing the rest of the season, Twins manager Derek Falvey hinted that there was a fairly good chance that Matthews would be called up next week. Preemptive congratulations to RoboScout’s fourth best pitcher of the 2024 minor league season, behind only Paul Skenes (Pirates), Christian Scott (Mets) and Noah Schultz (White Sox) for his major league debut!

On July 31, Noah Cameron (Royals) made his Triple A debut against the Nationals’ Rochester affiliate and struck out 10 without walking any batters over 6 innings. Fast forward to seven days later and the righthander struck out seven Cubs, again without walking any. On the season, RoboScout sees Cameron as a back of the rotation starter as he does not have eye-popping stuff, sitting 92 mph with his four-seam fastball, with a splitter/changeup and a downer curveball from his high release slot – but it has been quite a first two Triple-A games for Cameron.

Happy bidding!

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 11, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Fantasy Podcast: Reviewing The P1 ADP Prospect Mocks https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-reviewing-the-p1-adp-prospect-mocks/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-reviewing-the-p1-adp-prospect-mocks/#respond Thu, 08 Aug 2024 13:58:04 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1471357 This week on the Baseball America Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Dylan and Geoff discuss each of their P1 ADP Mocks. Every year Chris Welsh puts together…

The post Fantasy Podcast: Reviewing The P1 ADP Prospect Mocks appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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This week on the Baseball America Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Dylan and Geoff discuss each of their P1 ADP Mocks. Every year Chris Welsh puts together the P1 ADP mocks with the goal of getting a temperature on how prospects are valued by dynasty managers and experts. The hosts discuss pick by pick as well as some of the other options available at each pick. It’s a good discussion of values and strategy in drafts.

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The post Fantasy Podcast: Reviewing The P1 ADP Prospect Mocks appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 4, 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-4-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-aug-4-2024/#respond Sun, 04 Aug 2024 18:00:44 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1469500 RoboScout's latest dive into potential fantasy FAAB adds covets several Nationals pitching prospects and a pair of Dodgers teammates.

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 4, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Somehow the calendar flipped to August and only one-third of the major league season is left. The MLB trade deadline is behind us. The trade deadline in your dynasty league—please make sure you have a trade deadline in your dynasty league—is probably approaching or also in the past.

That doesn’t mean there is nothing to care about in the minor leagues. In most of my leagues, we’re allowed to pick up minor leaguers all the way until the end of the season. And, especially as draftees have now started to be assigned to professional affiliates, we’re starting to see some data from them—albeit fewer than 20 plate appearances in most cases.

As always, RoboScout watches it all for you.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive ability or position). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with Statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Dominican Summer League Hitters (min 30 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emil MoralesLAD100100
2Rainiel RodriguezSTL9395
3Eduardo BeltreMIN8491
4Jesus MadeMIL8189
5Jose AndersonMIL8185
6Juneiker CaceresCLE8082
7Edward FlorentinoPIT7081
8Luis PenaMIL7781
9Yolfran CastilloTEX7180
10Stiven MartinezBAL7278
11Elvin GarciaBAL6777
12Arnaldo LantiguaLAD6276
13Adriander MejiaBAL6376
14Juan OrtunoMIL6976
15Jirvin MorilloCIN6875
16Cesar LugoCHC6375
17Estivel MorilloCLE7375
18Jaset MartinezCIN6174
19Queni PinedaNYY6074
20Sebastian BaqueraTEX6373

 

Dodgers shortstop Emil Morales regains the top spot by a large gap after a preposterous week where he hit five home runs and stole two bases. Morales now leads all DSL hitters with 12 homers through 167 plate appearances. He’s likely the consensus top prospect in the DSL, although Jesus Made (Brewers), or Eduardo Beltre (Twins) if you listened to our latest fantasy podcast, may take offense.

Morales’ teammate, Arnaldo Lantigua, is second in the DSL with 10 homers after hitting three this week. Lantigua now ranks 12th on our hitters list after ranking No. 24 last week. Lantigua signed for $700,000 as a physically mature corner outfielder out of the Dominican Republic in 2023. He had above-average power with average speed. Keep in mind he’s repeating the level and is already 18 years old.

In 2023, Lantigua’s 90th percentile exit velocity was 99.7 mph with a 106.7 mph max. This year he already has six balls in play that have been hit over 104 mph, with a maximum exit velocity of 109.4 mph. He also has been showing little problem catching up to high velocity in a small sample size. We don’t like to invest too heavily in 18-year-olds who are doing well in the DSL, but Lantigua is also showing average contact and average chase to supplement his plus exit velocities. Expect to see him stateside next year and to likely reach full-season ball.

Complex League Hitters (FINAL, min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Franklin AriasBOS100100
2Robert CalazCOL10098
3Yeremi CabreraTEX9797
4Eric BitontiMIL9496
5Pablo GuerreroTEX9393
6Eduardo QuinteroLAD8489
7Eduardo TaitPHI9788
8Yoeilin CespedesBOS8487
9Javier MogollonCHW8685
10Engelth UrenaNYY7784
11Welbyn FranciscaCLE8584
12Daiverson GutierrezNYM7983
13Starlyn CabaPHI7983
14Edgleen PerezNYY7482
15Brailer GuerreroTBR7681
16Felnin CelestenSEA7681
17Braylin MorelTEX8581
18Miguel RodriguezBAL7480
19Yolfran CastilloTEX7680
20Jhonny SeverinoPIT7579
21Aroon EscobarPHI7279
22Jeremy RodriguezNYM8479
23Luis MerejoCLE7378
24Dameury PenaMIN7878
25Yasser MercedesMIN7378
26Carlos TavaresWSN7277
27Demetrio CrisantesARI6675
28Franyerber MontillaDET7074
29Antonis MaciasTEX6574
30Alexander AlbertusLAD6873
31Arjun NimmalaTOR7373
32John GilATL7673
33Abrahan RamirezNYY6573
34Walker JenkinsMIN6572
35Andruw MusettBOS6972

With the Complex League season over, we’ve extended out the list to display the Top 35.

Complex League Pitchers (FINAL, min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Trevor HarrisonTBR95100
2Yordy HerreraSTL100100
3Christian ZazuetaLAD8993
4Samuel SanchezLAD9493
5Sean LinanLAD9292
6Ovis PortesBOS8692
7Hayden RobinsonMIL9591
8Joseph YabbourNYM8491
9Keyner BenitezMIA10091
10Jefferson JeanOAK8991
11Juan ValeraBOS8789
12Jacob BresnahanCLE9489
13Rafael GonzalezHOU8489
14Adrian HerreraCIN8488
15Johan SimonTOR8188
16Jogly GarciaCLE8488
17Alix HernandezSFG8688
18Sandy OzunaCOL9286
19Luis MorellisCIN8985
20Jesus CarreraHOU8685
21Hyun-Seok JangLAD8385
22Keythel KeyLAA8084
23Zander MuethPIT7884
24Jordarlin MendozaNYY7884
25Nelfy YnfanteSTL9184

 

Low-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Franklin AriasBOS97100
2Leodalis De VriesSDP10098
3Colt EmersonSEA8892
4Michael ArroyoSEA8889
5Aidan SmithSEA8587
6Kevin McGonigleDET8486
7Eduardo TaitPHI9386
8Blake MitchellKCR8184
9Starlyn CabaPHI8183
10Zyhir HopeLAD7782
11Jaison ChourioCLE8182
12Demetrio CrisantesARI7682
13Axiel PlazPIT8781
14Jonny FarmeloSEA7881
15Lazaro MontesSEA9281
16Arjun NimmalaTOR8480
17Walker JenkinsMIN7780
18Josue De PaulaLAD7580
19Jeral PerezLAD7678
20Yasser MercedesMIN7375
21Alfredo DunoCIN7775
22Jesus BaezNYM7774
23Max ClarkDET7774
24Ralphy VelazquezCLE7574
25Cooper PrattMIL7373

Although Phillies SS Starlyn Caba has a 24 wRC+ through 33 Low-A plate appearances, he has seven steals without being caught. We’ve previously raved about his elite defense from the shortstop position. If he can steal 25-to-30 bases per season, he has set a very high fantasy floor.

Caba’s teammate, C Eduardo Tait, has already blasted three home runs through 28 plate appearances for Clearwater. Tait hit six homers at the Complex at 17 years old and is one of RoboScout’s favorite breakouts of 2024. Only two months older than Leodalis de Vries (Padres), Tait has actually produced a higher 90th percentile exit velocity (103.8 mph vs 102.2 mph) and maximum exit velocity (112.2 mph vs. 106.9 mph) than the Padres prospect. Of course, the quality of the pitching they have faced this season is literally a minor league level apart.

Tait needs to continue developing defensively. He has an above-average arm, but other parts of his game behind the plate need refinement. If he can, he may enter 2025 as a preseason top-50 fantasy prospect who projects for 25+ homers a year.

Arjun Nimmala (Blue Jays) has continued to wield a hot bat since returning to Low-A Dunedin on June 27. He has smashed nine home runs over that time and now sits 16th on the Low-A hitters list. Although he has clearly rediscovered the potential 30-home run power that the Blue Jays envisioned when they drafted him in the first round in 2023, he does still have some swing-and-miss in his game, with a 68% contact rate on the season. Even in his hot streak during this second go-around in Low-A, Nimmala has a 32% strikeout rate. He has a better-than-league-average chase rate to go along with his plus barrel rate and plus expected wOBA on contact. There is still a long road ahead for the 18-year old. The fact that he has made adjustments after his initial struggles bodes well for his future.

JJ Wetherholt (Cardinals) has made 19 plate appearances in Low-A Palm Beach, and despite no home runs or stolen bases yet, he does have a 170 wRC+ with more walks than strikeouts. So far, it’s an encouraging debut for the No. 7 pick in the 2024 draft.

Low-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Jonah TongNYM9195
3Quinn MathewsSTL8695
4Alejandro RosarioTEX8593
5Didier FuentesATL8492
6Jarlin SusanaWSN8192
7Travis SykoraWSN8892
8Santiago SuarezTBR8091
9Grant TaylorCHW7789
10Trevor HarrisonTBR8288
11Eliazar DishmeyMIA7587
12Yujanyer HerreraMIL8484
13Sean LinanLAD8382
14Thomas WhiteMIA7282
15Kohl DrakeTEX8282
16George KlassenLAA8182
17Gary Gill HillTBR8182
18Jace KaminskaCOL7781
19Welinton HerreraCOL7079
20Ovis PortesBOS7079
21Bishop LetsonMIL6979
22Mavis GravesPHI8579
23Jose GonzalezTEX7279
24Adam SerwinowskiCIN6779
25Noble MeyerMIA6878

Braves righty Didier Fuentes struck out 16 while walking just two over nine innings in a pair of starts since the all-star break. I won’t mention the eight earned runs he allowed during that time. Instead, RoboScout is far more interested in the 35% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate over his last five starts.

As we’ve mentioned before, the 19-year-old (he doesn’t turn 20 until next June) has a solid fastball/slider mix. It’s fronted by his super-flat, low-slot 93 mph four-seam fastball that has over six-and-a-half feet of extension. He’ll likely need to develop his split changeup, which he throws 7% of the time, to stick in the rotation. The teenager has added 2 mph to his average slider velocity compared to last year and has seen his fastball max out at 96 mph this year compared to 94.3 in 2023. He has shown he can make significant gains to his arsenal. Fuentes is a fascinating and underrated arm in the Braves organization.

Rays 18-year-old righty Trevor Harrison has struck out 31% of batters over his first 17 innings for Low-A Charleston. That’s the second-highest mark of the 11 pitchers with 12+ innings in Low-A in their age-18 season, behind only Alex Clemmey (Nationals by way of the Guardians) who struck out 33% in 69 innings. Although Harrison does have a 10% walk rate, that is the fourth-lowest rate for the same pitching cohort. With a 94 mph fastball that has touched 98 mph, an 84 mph bullet slider, a changeup with nine mph velocity separation and 10 inches of vertical separation, and even an 88 mph cutter, the former high school teammate of Aidan Miller (Phillies) shows a midrotation starter’s arsenal.

Nationals righty Travis Sykora has climbed into the top seven. Sykora has a 45% strikeout rate over his last 32 innings. That’s the highest rate of punchies by any Low-A pitcher with at least 20 innings. Over that time, the 20-year-old has a sub-1.00 WHIP and a sub-2.00 ERA, along with a scintillating 22% swinging strike rate. His walk rate during that time is hovering right at 10% but even though a double-digit walk rate is a little higher than we would want, the 95 mph fastball from big extension, fronting an 83 mph slider and split changeup that both get over 50% whiffs, is a clear midrotation arsenal. Sykora is a solid top-125 fantasy prospect.

High-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Michael ArroyoSEA100100
2Luke AdamsMIL99100
3Luke KeaschallMIN9396
4Kevin McGonigleDET9596
5Sebastian WalcottTEX9995
6Xavier IsaacTBR9192
7Sal StewartCIN8590
8Lazaro MontesSEA9890
9Josue De PaulaLAD8389
10Carter JensenKCR8688
11Jesus BaezNYM8686
12Max ClarkDET8785
13Alex FreelandLAD7784
14Jhostynxon GarciaBOS7883
15Brayden TaylorTBR8082
16Bryce EldridgeSFG7881
17William BergollaCHW8081
18Henry BolteOAK7680
19Angel GenaoCLE7680
20Mike BoeveMIL7280
21Samuel ZavalaCHW7880
22Cam CollierCIN8180
23Cooper IngleCLE7279
24Jefferson RojasCHC7578
25C.J. KayfusCLE7077

Josue De Paula (Dodgers) has had a reasonably quiet 2024 season. Yet he sits in the top 10 of the High-A list as a teenager with a 125 wRC+, two home runs and four stolen bases over 98 plate appearances. With better than league-average swing decisions, contact and quality of contact—all the more impressive because he will stay a teenager until next May—the only knock against the sweet-swinging lefthander is that his defense may ultimately relegate him to a DH-only profile. Still, with the potential for a 60-hit, 60-power profile, he should be a no-doubt fantasy contributor.

Rockies 3B Kyle Karros hasn’t ranked on the High-A list yet, but he has performed quite well recently. Since June 14, Karros has put up a 180 wRC+ with nine home runs and seven stolen bases. The 2023 fifth-round pick has played a solid third base all season and has a solidly average contact rate, chase rate, and barrel rate, though he is far more effective against fastballs than against secondaries. Note that High-A Spokane boosts homers for righthanded batters by nearly 47%. RoboScout accounts for this already, but make sure you are doing the internal math when looking at the back of his baseball card.

No. 1 pick Travis Bazzana has a 183 wRC+ with a home run and a steal through 17 plate appearances for High-A Lake County. On the face of it, his 41% strikeout rate is puzzling. Keep in mind that he has a 7% swinging strike rate, which is indicative of his extremely passive approach to start his professional debut. It’s something to watch as he accrues a larger sample size.

Kevin McGonigle (Tigers) hit his first High-A home run this week and has maintained a sub-3% strikeout rate over his first 39 plate appearances for West Michigan. With his near-90% contact rate on the season, it is clear that the infielder has one of the better hit tools in the minor leagues. Subsequently, RoboScout projects him for a .280/.360 batting average and on-base percentage in the major leagues with around 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases. He’s a top-15 prospect per RoboScout.

High-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Noah SchultzCHW90100
2Quinn MathewsSTL9299
3Luis PeralesBOS8898
4Alejandro RosarioTEX9297
5Matt WilkinsonCLE10097
6Owen MurphyATL9097
7Jarlin SusanaWSN8897
8Chase DollanderCOL8897
9Zebby MatthewsMIN8392
10Jonah TongNYM9091
11George KlassenPHI8390
12K.C. HuntMIL9088
13Kohl DrakeTEX9288
14Brett WichrowskiMIL8087
15Thomas WhiteMIA8087
16Sean SullivanCOL9387
17Alessandro ErcolaniPIT7485
18Winston SantosTEX7684
19Jaden HammDET8483
20Jedixson PaezBOS9282
21Brandyn GarciaSEA7181
22Owen WildTBR7780
23Austin PetersonCLE7980
24Ethan PeckoHOU7980
25Lazaro EstradaTOR6980

Nationals righty Jarlin Susana has been lights out in his first four starts for High-A Wilmington. Susana has 26 strikeouts to just three walks while going at least five innings in each start. We can’t undersell his improvements: in 56 innings in Low-A, he had a 12% walk rate and in the 20 innings he has pitched in High-A, his walk rate is under 4%! When you average 100 mph with nearly six and a half feet of extension and an 89 mph slider, you barely need to use your changeup—even if it has nearly 18 inches of armside fade.

His 57% groundball rate in High-A only adds to his floor, especially after eliciting the second-highest Low-A mark among pitchers with at least 50 innings. Susana was a popular sleeper in 2023. His lack of command prevented him from meeting that potential and seemed to all but assure his destiny as a reliever. This season, with his vastly improved command—at least recently—he might be changing that narrative. Worst case, he should be a successful major league closer.

Congratulations to Sean Sullivan (Rockies) on his promotion to Double-A Hartford on the heels of his 39% strikeout rate and sub-5% walk rate over his last four starts.

Double-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Agustin RamirezNYY8989
3Luke KeaschallMIN8689
4Moises BallesterosCHC8887
5Roman AnthonyBOS8686
6Carter JensenKCR8685
7Matthew LugoBOS8084
8Ryan CliffordNYM8180
9Cole YoungSEA8180
10Deyvison De Los SantosARI8380
11Hao-Yu LeeDET7979
12Kristian CampbellBOS7379
13Alex FreelandLAD7279
14Edgar QueroCHW7678
15Samuel BasalloBAL8677
16C.J. KayfusCLE7477
17Matt ShawCHC7576
18Carson WilliamsTBR7776
19Henry BolteOAK7576
20Colby ThomasOAK7175
21Dalton RushingLAD6774
22Jacob WilsonOAK6774
23Tyler LocklearSEA6672
24Jimmy CrooksSTL6671
25Nick CimilloPIT6371

Royals C Carter Jensen continues to mash since his Double-A promotion, hitting two homers in his first seven games. We have written about Jensen before and he ranks in the High-A top 10 as well. RoboScout likes his average-to-above average contact rate and chase rate, and his plus barrel rate and 90th percentile exit velocity. The 20-year-old’s 16 steals this season are the biggest surprise. I don’t expect him to steal more than 10 bases in the major leagues, but with an above-average bat and 20-ish home runs, it won’t be necessary in order to be productive in fantasy.

Although he is potentially behind Blake Mitchell (Royals) on the catching depth chart, Jensen is two levels ahead of him, giving him a potential head start on establishing himself in the major leagues before Mitchell creates any potential roster controversy (of the good variety). One thing to note is that Jensen has caught 30% of High-A base runners trying to steal against him this year while Mitchell has only thrown out 13% of would-be base stealers in Low-A. On the other side of the coin, Freddy Fermin has thrown out 56% of stolen base attempts in 2024, good enough for highest in the major leagues. Luckily, RoboScout is not needed to help resolve this catching situation for Kansas City.

Prior to the season, Matt Shaw (Cubs) was an extremely popular name in redraft leagues. After all, we already know about him in dynasty leagues. But eyebrows were first raised when the Cubs made a preseason trade for Michael Busch. Shaw was expected to be a fantasy contributor but has instead remained at Double-A all season. He finished May with an OPS below .750. Over the last six, weeks however, Shaw has been one of the hottest hitters in the minors, let alone in Double-A, and has climbed into the top 20.

Shaw finished June with a .901 OPS and posted a 1.061 OPS in July. Over his last 123 plate appearances, he has eight home runs and stolen eight bases, showing the type of production we expected coming into the season. On the season, the likely third baseman has put up a 77% contact rate, down from the 84% mark he had in his brief 2023, and his max exit velocity still has not attained the 112 mph mark that he achieved in 2023. Still, with another three home runs this week, it’s merely a matter of time before he finds himself in Triple-A Iowa.

Double-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Zebby MatthewsMIN100100
2Noah SchultzCHW98100
3Logan HendersonMIL9894
4Bubba ChandlerPIT9093
5Tink HenceSTL9889
6Braxton AshcraftPIT9187
7Thomas HarringtonPIT9087
8Brandon SproatNYM8985
9Troy MeltonDET8484
10Quinn MathewsSTL8484
11Ben CaspariusLAD8183
12Blade TidwellNYM7982
13Ben ShieldsNYY8582
14Chandler ChamplainKCR9582
15Jacob MisiorowskiMIL7782
16Jackson JobeDET7781
17Caden DanaLAA8580
18Winston SantosTEX7980
19Spencer SchwellenbachATL8480
20Carson PalmquistCOL8379
21Zach PenrodBOS8779
22Kyle McGowinCHC8279
23Shane SmithMIL8578
24Yilber DiazARI8378
25Brandon YoungBAL8978

Brandon Sproat’s Friday night performance was the big story this week. The Mets righty struck out 13 batters, including 11th in a row. The outing jumped him from No. 25 to inside the top 10 of the Double-A list and earned him a promotion to Triple-A Syracuse. On the season, the 23-year-old righthander has put his 96 mph four-seam fastball, 86 mph slider, and changeup to good use, leading to a sub-1.00 WHIP and sub-3.00 on all ERA indicators. Sproat, along with Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Blade Tidwell, has the Mets future rotation sitting in a nice spot for the next five years.

Drue Hackenberg (Braves) was a popular add in dynasty leagues last week. That makes a lot of sense when you realize he has struck out 22 batters and only walked one over his last 12 innings. If you add his previous three starts to those two, yes he has a 35% strikeout rate, but he also has an 11% walk rate. Under the hood, Hackenberg primarily throws his curveball, which has a foot of sweep and generates over 40% whiffs, followed by two fastballs that sit 92 to 94 mph and a changeup. Interestingly, Hackenberg elicited a 98th percentile 61% groundball rate in 59.1 High-A innings. In 29 Double-A innings, though, he has a 34% groundball rate. In our Top 30 write-up we compared him to Bryce Elder with a better fastball. RoboScout agrees and projects him as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

It’s worth noting that Jackson Jobe (Tigers) last year had a walk rate under 3% over 68 innings. This year in Double-A, he has a 14.5% walk rate over 42 innings. The WHIP is still only 1.11 on account of the hellacious stuff. Interestingly, although he increased his fastball velocity (97.1 mph compared to 96.5 in 2023) and has topped out at 100 mph compared to 98 last year, his slider now averages 82 mph compared to 85 mph in 2023. He has added four inches of sweep (17 vs. 13 in 2023). The trade-off in sweep compared to velocity is essentially even from a stuff perspective, but it’s puzzling nonetheless. Jobe’s strikeout and walk rates are eerily similar to Brewers RHP Jacob Misiorowski. Will we start to see more bullpen risk concerns for Jobe?

Triple-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1James WoodWSN100100
2Jackson HollidayBAL9392
3Coby MayoBAL8891
4Kyle ManzardoCLE8388
5Adrian Del CastilloARI7986
6Miguel VargasCHW7886
7Jose FerminSTL7584
8Andy PagesLAD7482
9Chase MeidrothBOS7481
10Elehuris MonteroCOL7381
11Jacob WilsonOAK7078
12Dillon DinglerDET6978
13Shay WhitcombHOU7677
14Angel MartinezCLE7576
15Moises BallesterosCHC7476
16Agustin RamirezMIA7376
17Deyvison De Los SantosMIA8276
18Javier SanojaMIA7575
19Matthew LugoLAA6875
20Henry DavisPIT7274
21Joey LoperfidoHOU6573
22Niko KavadasLAA6373
23Jonatan ClaseTOR6973
24Jerar EncarnacionSFG6672
25Edgar QueroCHW6972

Congratulations to Dillon Dingler (Tigers) for his major league callup one day after appearing in these pages. Of course, two Orioles were also summoned to the big leagues: Jackson Holliday for the second time and Coby Mayo.

Giants outfielder Jerar Encarnacion is another interesting callup. He has 10 homers in his last 146 plate appearances dating back to June 14. The 26-year old has always had above-average bat speed, and has a 90th percentile exit velocity above 108 mph. In 2023, his contact rate was 58%, far below league average and worse than the 66% rate he had in 2022. In 2024, though, his contact rate is essentially league-average for Triple-A. When paired with his xwOBAcon that is essentially equivalent to Deyvison De Los Santos (Marlins via the Diamondbacks) and an OPS that is essentially the same as James Wood (Nationals). It’s quite possible that Encarnacion might be a source of power in redraft leagues this year.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9191
3Zebby MatthewsMIN8788
4David FestaMIN8980
5Will WarrenNYY8080
6Chayce McDermottBAL8179
7Tylor MegillNYM8178
8Jack LeiterTEX7577
9Carson SpiersCIN7677
10Tobias MyersMIL7476
11Chad PatrickMIL7775
12Louie VarlandMIN7975
13Yilber DiazARI7974
14Cade PovichBAL8574
15Elieser HernandezLAD7474
16Braxton AshcraftPIT7674
17Robert GasserMIL7173
18Blake SnellSFG7472
19AJ Smith-ShawverATL7472
20Alek ManoahTOR7672
21Slade CecconiARI7871
22Quinn PriesterPIT8471
23Cristian MenaARI8071
24Reid DetmersLAA8570
25Matt ManningDET6870

Congratulations to Will Warren (Yankees) for earning his major league debut after we spoke about him last week.

Now that Zebby Matthews (Twins) has accrued 14 innings in Triple-A, he finds himself leapfrogging organizational mate David Festa (Twins) and sitting third on the list. He also hasn’t walked anyone in Triple-A yet.

Happy bidding!

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Aug. 4, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Fantasy Podcast: RoboScout Names To Target At Your Trade Deadline https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-roboscout-names-to-target-at-your-trade-deadline/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-roboscout-names-to-target-at-your-trade-deadline/#respond Tue, 30 Jul 2024 15:54:20 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1464900 With trade baseball deadlines (both real & fantasy) looming, Geoff Pontes & Dylan White discuss MLB trades and players who may be dealt.

The post Fantasy Podcast: RoboScout Names To Target At Your Trade Deadline appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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With the real trade deadline upon us and the fantasy trade deadline breathing down our necks, hosts Dylan White and Geoff Pontes return with a brand new episode of the Fantasy Baseball Podcast to discuss their favorite deals so far and break down fantasy assets that could on the move with the help of a little robotic scouting.

RobotScout says: “Beep bop boop!”

Roughly translated, this means “Let’s dive in!”

  • Intro 0:00 to 3:30
  • Favorite trades of the deadline so far 3:30 to 7:00
  • Mason Miller 7:00 – 10:00
  • Potential Players Moving At the Deadline 10:00 – 13:00
  • Franklin Arias 13:00 – 18:00
  • Eduardo Beltre 18:00 – 23:30
  • Leo De Vries 23:30 – 31:00
  • Will Warren 31:00 – 34:00
  • Logan Henderson 34:00 – 37:00
  • Javier Sanoja 37:00 – 42:00

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The post Fantasy Podcast: RoboScout Names To Target At Your Trade Deadline appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 28, 2024 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-july-28-2024/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/roboscout-top-mlb-prospects-at-every-level-on-july-28-2024/#respond Sun, 28 Jul 2024 16:33:45 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1461411 RoboScout's latest prospect rankings are here. Will we see some of these fantasy standouts dealt prior to the trade deadline?

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 28, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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The Complex League regular season is over and Baseball America’s Josh Norris has you covered for the playoffs. With the rookie-level season ending earlier this year, it will be interesting to see how prep draftees are handled. Will teams aggressively assign them to Low-A, or hold them out until 2025? Will Complex League hitters earn promotions earlier than normal? There are a lot of potential dominoes to fall over the next few weeks.

As always, RoboScout will be watching it all for you.

It’s Trade Deadline weekend so don’t be surprised to see a lot of the names in these lists exchange hands. We’ll no doubt get into all the fallout in subsequent podcasts and articles so we’ll keep this week’s article tight.

Stats and lists through Friday’s games.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive ability or position). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with Statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Dominican Summer League Hitters (min 30 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Rainiel RodriguezSTL100100
2Eduardo BeltreMIN9498
3Jesus MadeMIL9196
4Emil MoralesLAD9396
5Jose AndersonMIL9292
6Edward FlorentinoPIT8491
7Luis PenaMIL8489
8Yolfran CastilloTEX7987
9Elvin GarciaBAL7685
10Juneiker CaceresCLE8884
11Stiven MartinezBAL8183
12Juan OrtunoMIL7883
13Estivel MorilloCLE8482
14Jaset MartinezCIN7181
15Jirvin MorilloCIN7481
16Adriander MejiaBAL6478
17Cesar LugoCHC6778
18Jesus AlexanderSFG6577
19Jordan SanchezBAL6777
20Justin GonzalesBOS7177

 

Paulino Santana (Rangers) won the DSL All-Star Game MVP last week. This should come as no surprise to readers, as Ben Badler long identified him as one of the prized January international signees. RoboScout hasn’t been too enamored with the 17-year-old’s overall results this season, however, because of an uninspiring lack of in-game power so far. With no home runs and a slugging percentage below .350—and a maximum exit velocity just over 102 mph—Santana seems to be focusing on a contact-oriented approach and excellent swing decisions. With plus speed and solid defense, Santana has other ways to positively impact a game while he works on increasing his strength.

After making it into the top 5 last week, catcher Rainiel Rodriguez (Cardinals) finds himself at the top of the table after hitting another two bombs last week, bringing his season total to nine to lead the league.

Complex League Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Franklin AriasBOS100100
2Robert CalazCOL10098
3Yeremi CabreraTEX9797
4Eric BitontiMIL9495
5Pablo GuerreroTEX9491
6Eduardo TaitPHI9889
7Eduardo QuinteroLAD8487
8Yoeilin CespedesBOS8385
9Javier MogollonCHW8582
10Starlyn CabaPHI7882
11Welbyn FranciscaCLE8481
12Engelth UrenaNYY7481
13Edgleen PerezNYY7380
14Yolfran CastilloTEX7680
15Brailer GuerreroTBR7579
16Daiverson GutierrezNYM7879
17Felnin CelestenSEA7579
18Braylin MorelTEX8478
19Dameury PenaMIN7777
20Miguel RodriguezBAL7377
21Aroon EscobarPHI6976
22Jhonny SeverinoPIT7376
23Yasser MercedesMIN7076
24Jeremy RodriguezNYM8575
25Luis MerejoCLE7275

Recently promoted from the DSL, Rangers SS Yolfran Castillo cracks the top 20 now that he qualifies for the list. Ben Badler raved about the Venezuelan’s contact skills earlier this season. The 17-year-old was quickly brought stateside and has produced a wRC+ just below league average, which is impressive considering his age. There’s not much power—he currently sports a .017 ISO at the Complex—but he does have an xwOBAcon that was better than league average and actually only .020 lower than Brewers DSL breakout Luis Pena. He’s probably too green to be moved to full-season ball after the ACL Rangers’ current postseason run ends, but even still, the Rangers have to be happy with what they saw from their $600,000 signing. Castillo should be rostered in leagues with 400 prospects or more.

Mets C Daiverson Gutierrez is another player who is finishing stateside after starting in the DSL. The 18-year-old signed with New York for nearly $2 million in 2023 and now enters the top 20 after putting up a 170 wRC+ with two home runs over 54 plate appearances. Yet another talented Venezuelan catching signing, scouts believe Gutierrez can develop into above-average game power. His 108 mph max exit velocity seems to support that. He’s not there yet, but he’s showing above-average swing decisions and contact for his age and level, striking out at only a 7% clip at the Complex. As you know, there are a lot of great catching prospects in the minor leagues right now. He’s not there now, but Gutierrez is off to a solid start.

Complex League Pitchers (min 12 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Trevor HarrisonTBR95100
2Yordy HerreraSTL100100
3Christian ZazuetaLAD8993
4Samuel SanchezLAD9493
5Sean LinanLAD9292
6Ovis PortesBOS8692
7Hayden RobinsonMIL9591
8Joseph YabbourNYM8491
9Keyner BenitezMIA10091
10Jefferson JeanOAK8991
11Juan ValeraBOS8789
12Jacob BresnahanCLE9489
13Rafael GonzalezHOU8489
14Adrian HerreraCIN8488
15Johan SimonTOR8188
16Jogly GarciaCLE8488
17Alix HernandezSFG8688
18Sandy OzunaCOL9286
19Luis MorellisCIN8985
20Jesus CarreraHOU8685
21Hyun-Seok JangLAD8385
22Keythel KeyLAA8084
23Zander MuethPIT7884
24Jordarlin MendozaNYY7884
25Nelfy YnfanteSTL9184

The Guardians finally promoted LHP Jacob Bresnahan to Low-A Lynchburg after he registered a 34% strikeout rate, a 1.04 WHIP and 2.54 ERA over 46 innings. The 19-year-old doesn’t have overpowering stuff, nor does it come from a particularly deceptive slot. Bresnahan has a 92 mph four-seam fastball, 83 mph slider and a changeup that gets over 40% whiffs. But the Guardians are one of baseball’s best pitching development organizations and the southpaw has age on his side, just turning 19 a month ago. Look for his velocity to likely end up in the mid 90s.

Angels righty Keythel Key brings his intriguing arsenal to the top 25 for the first time this year. The 20-year-old Venezuelan has a 29% strikeout rate and a 48% groundball rate—both well above-average marks for the level—but the pitch metrics really catch RoboScout’s eye. Key averages 95 mph on his fastball and touches 99 with a high-spin breaking ball that gets about a foot of sweep, plus a developing changeup. His interesting stuff could potentially work in the back of a rotation with further development. He’s an interesting name to watchlist.

Low-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Leodalis De VriesSDP100100
2Colt EmersonSEA8291
3Michael ArroyoSEA8391
4Aidan SmithSEA8088
5Kevin McGonigleDET7887
6Lazaro MontesSEA8887
7Blake MitchellKCR7586
8Axiel PlazPIT8286
9Walker JenkinsMIN7184
10Jonny FarmeloSEA7182
11Jaison ChourioCLE7282
12Demetrio CrisantesARI6781
13Josue De PaulaLAD6681
14Jeral PerezLAD6779
15Zyhir HopeLAD6077
16Ralphy VelazquezCLE6877
17Jesus BaezNYM6976
18Alfredo DunoCIN6775
19Max ClarkDET6974
20Logan WagnerLAD5874
21Yophery RodriguezMIL7373
22Arjun NimmalaTOR6773
23Rosman VerdugoSDP6572
24Cooper PrattMIL6372
25Angel GenaoCLE5972

Maintaining his absolutely breakneck pace, Leodalis De Vries (Padres) remains No. 1 after knocking three more home runs and stealing another base last week. Again, we can’t overstate what he’s doing as the youngest hitter in full-season ball. De Vries’ .901 OPS since June 3 would be the highest season mark by a 17-year old in Low-A since 2006 with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. His full-season 119 wRC+ is just behind the 122 wRC+ that org-mate Ethan Salas put up at the same age last year to much fanfare. It’s still a short sample, but RoboScout has seen enough: De Vries is a top-10 fantasy prospect.

Speaking of RoboScout favorites, Franklin Arias (Red Sox) has already hit two home runs with a preposterous 379 wRC+ in his first three games for Low-A Salem including seven RBIs. The 18-year old shortstop is on one of the more torrid streaks observed in the minors this year and is a top 25 fantasy prospect per RoboScout, especially when you consider that his 181 wRC+ in the Complex League is the highest since 2006 among 18-year-olds with at least 200 plate appearances. Just for context, Junior Caminero (Rays) had a 147 wRC+ in 2022 over 154 plate appearances before being promoted to Low-A. Arias checks all the boxes this year: Power, speed and good shortstop defense.

Low-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Jonah TongNYM9195
3Quinn MathewsSTL8594
4Alejandro RosarioTEX8493
5Jarlin SusanaWSN8092
6Santiago SuarezTBR7990
7Didier FuentesATL8190
8Grant TaylorCHW7789
9George KlassenPHI7888
10Travis SykoraWSN8287
11Eliazar DishmeyMIA7386
12Yujanyer HerreraMIL8385
13Sean LinanLAD8484
14Kohl DrakeTEX8282
15Thomas WhiteMIA7282
16Ovis PortesBOS7081
17Mavis GravesPHI8580
18Welinton HerreraCOL6979
19Gary Gill HillTBR7879
20Jace KaminskaCOL7479
21Isaiah LoweSDP6779
22Noble MeyerMIA6778
23Jackson NezuhHOU6677
24Jose GonzalezTEX7077
25Alimber SantaHOU6677

It took 65 innings of a 1.20 WHIP, a 3.15 ERA and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 27%, but 20-year old LHP Mavis Graves (Phillies) finally gets some ink spilt in these pages. Although he’s been deserving for some time, Graves was overshadowed in Clearwater by the louder stuff of teammate George Klassen—the newest member of the Los Angeles Angels.

Still, the 2022 sixth-rounder—with a name more like a Southern Gothic singer/songwriter than southpaw—throws a 91 mph four-seamer from a high slot and big extension. Graves also has a slider and changeup that both get over 50% whiffs. The stuff is solid enough, even if it isn’t overwhelming from a modern pitch design standpoint, and his surface stats portend a peak projection in the same cluster as Grant Taylor (White Sox), Kohl Drake (Rangers) and Yujanyer Herrera (Rockies by way of the Brewers). Graves is probably already rostered in your leagues given his solid results. If he isn’t, the big 6-foot-6 lefthander is definitely viable in leagues that roster 300 prospects.

High-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Michael ArroyoSEA97100
2Luke KeaschallMIN9398
3Luke AdamsMIL9297
4Sebastian WalcottTEX9995
5Lazaro MontesSEA10095
6Sal StewartCIN8592
7Xavier IsaacTBR9092
8Carter JensenKCR8691
9Josue De PaulaLAD8088
10Alex FreelandLAD7786
11Samuel ZavalaCHW8286
12Brayden TaylorTBR8084
13Mike BoeveMIL7282
14William BergollaPHI8182
15Henry BolteOAK7682
16Cooper IngleCLE7382
17Cutter CoffeyBOS7781
18C.J. KayfusCLE7080
19Jhostynxon GarciaBOS7079
20Charles McAdooPIT7079
21Yohendrick PinangoCHC7279
22Ricardo OlivarMIN6978
23Bryce EldridgeSFG7177
24Jefferson RojasCHC7177
25Kristian CampbellBOS6577

Josue De Paula (Dodgers) qualifies for the High-A list for the first time this season and immediately slots into the top 10 with a 153 wRC+, two home runs and four stolen bases over 71 plate appearances. With better than league average swing decisions, contact and quality of contact—all the more impressive because he will be a teenager until next May—the only knock against the sweet-swinging left hander is the fact that his defense may ultimately relegate him to a DH-only profile. Still, with the potential for a 60-hit, 60-power profile, he should be a no-doubt fantasy contributor.

High-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Noah SchultzCHW89100
2Quinn MathewsSTL9298
3Matt WilkinsonCLE10098
4Luis PeralesBOS8798
5Owen MurphyATL9097
6Chase DollanderCOL8797
7Alejandro RosarioTEX8995
8Zebby MatthewsMIN8292
9George KlassenPHI8088
10Jonah TongNYM8788
11K.C. HuntMIL8988
12Kohl DrakeTEX9087
13Thomas WhiteMIA7885
14Alessandro ErcolaniPIT7485
15Sean SullivanCOL8984
16Winston SantosTEX7583
17Jedixson PaezBOS9283
18Jaden HammDET8483
19Moises ChaceBAL7081
20Brandyn GarciaSEA7081
21Austin PetersonCLE7880
22Edgar PortesBAL6979
23Lazaro EstradaTOR6879
24Ethan PeckoHOU7879
25Nolan McLeanNYM6879

Now that he qualifies for the list, Alejandro Rosario (Rangers) appears as the seventh pitcher in High-A with a 38% strikeout rate over 18.2 innings. The breakout righthander comes at hitters with a flat 97 mph four-seam fastball while his slider and changeup both get over 45% whiffs. RoboScout sees him as a midrotation starter with a potential for more. 

Double-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Agustin RamirezNYY8990
3Luke KeaschallMIN8689
4Moises BallesterosCHC8887
5Matthew LugoBOS8084
6Ryan CliffordNYM8484
7Cole YoungSEA8282
8Roman AnthonyBOS7880
9Deyvison De Los SantosARI8280
10Kristian CampbellBOS7379
11Carson WilliamsTBR7979
12Hao-Yu LeeDET7879
13Alex FreelandLAD7278
14Edgar QueroCHW7678
15C.J. KayfusCLE7378
16Henry BolteOAK7576
17Colby ThomasOAK7074
18Jacob WilsonOAK6774
19Samuel BasalloBAL8374
20Charles McAdooPIT6974
21Marcelo MayerBOS7073
22Tyler LocklearSEA6673
23Harry FordSEA7071
24Dalton RushingLAD6271
25Alejandro OsunaTEX6771

Kristian Campbell (Red Sox) continues his ascent and enters the High-A top 10. His 206 wRC+ at Double-A is the highest among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. Jacob Wilson (Athletics) had a 224 wRC+ but that was only over 93 plate appearances. As a result, Campbell has a fantasy peak projection that is not too dissimilar from Emmanuel Rodriguez (Twins). With excellent swing decisions, contact quality and better-than-average contact, Campbell is an easy top-50 fantasy prospect. With his underlying metrics, he feels like he is on the verge of going on a home run tear at any moment.

Last year, RoboScout was a fan of Javier Vaz (Royals) on account of his gifted bat-to-ball skills Lack of power was the main concern. His ISO still remains below .130 in 2024 and he only has six home runs in 338 plate appearances at Double-A. Interestingly, though, most of his power outburst has come in the last six weeks.

Since June 3, over 123 plate appearances Vaz has hit five of his six home runs to go along eight steals. That 146 wRC+ during this time, where his swinging strike rate has been lower than 4%, suggests a peak more akin to a 20/20 bat than a 12/12 bat. Keep a close eye on this one, as his defense, contact and speed gives him a high floor. If he is even a 15-home run bat, then he is a likely Top 100 fantasy prospect. Note though that neither his 90th percentile exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, xwOBAcon, or barrel rate has taken any meaningful step forward from his 2023 marks. This might just be a hot streak.

Double-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Zebby MatthewsMIN100100
2Noah SchultzCHW98100
3Logan HendersonMIL9792
4Bubba ChandlerPIT8789
5Braxton AshcraftPIT9087
6Thomas HarringtonPIT9086
7Tink HenceSTL9486
8Jackson JobeDET8285
9Ben ShieldsNYY8784
10Peter Van LoonBAL8583
11Jacob MisiorowskiMIL7983
12Ben CaspariusLAD8082
13Chandler ChamplainKCR9582
14Blade TidwellNYM7981
15Quinn MathewsSTL8281
16Caden DanaLAA8479
17Carson PalmquistCOL8379
18Austin PetersonCLE8579
19Troy MeltonDET7879
20Zach PenrodBOS8779
21Kyle McGowinCHC8278
22Andrew MorrisMIN8678
23Yilber DiazARI8378
24Brandon YoungBAL8978
25Brandon SproatNYM8077

Brewers righthander Logan Henderson continues to be the biggest surprise on the Double-A rankings. Henderson is now up to third place, ahead of the Pittsburgh trio of Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington. Although he has only thrown 34 innings this season, he has generated a 29.1% strikeout-minus-walk rate. That’s good enough for the fourth-highest mark in Double-A among starting pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 20 innings. On June 30, I described his 2024 arsenal—an ultra-flat 93 mph four-seamer, a changeup that had a called or swinging strike rate of 47% and an 84 mph bullet slider—and he has since utilized it to generate 25 strikeouts and a paltry three walks in 18 innings. RoboScout considers him extremely underrated.

Caden Dana (Angels) is a Top 100 Prospect and moved up six spots to himself inside the Double-A top 20. In his two Double-A starts since appearing in the Futures Game, Dana has thrown a complete game and struck out 18 while only walking one over a total of 14 innings. A physical righthander with a predominantly four-pitch mix, Dana pitch regularly in the Angels’ rotation starting in 2025.

Triple-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1James WoodWSN100100
2Jackson HollidayBAL9594
3Coby MayoBAL8892
4Miguel VargasLAD7986
5Kyle ManzardoCLE7985
6Jose FerminSTL7685
7Andy PagesLAD7482
8Adrian Del CastilloARI7281
9Agustin RamirezNYY7579
10Jacob WilsonOAK7078
11Moises BallesterosCHC7577
12Angel MartinezCLE7576
13Niko KavadasBOS6676
14Dillon DinglerDET6976
15Jonatan ClaseSEA7275
16Matthew LugoBOS6774
17Jordan BeckCOL6575
18Shay WhitcombHOU7274
19Luis MatosSFG6574
20Joey LoperfidoHOU6574
21Chase MeidrothBOS6573
22Jace JungDET7073
23Deyvison De Los SantosARI7872
24Jhonkensy NoelCLE7972
25Orelvis MartinezTOR7172

With five home runs in his last 19 plate appearances, there is no doubt that Dillon Dingler (Tigers) should make this upcoming week’s Hot Sheet. On the season the 25-year-old catcher now has 17 home runs and a wRC+ of 136 and enters top 15 after never previously gracing the list. That projects to be an above-average hitter with 20+ home runs in the major leagues, yet funnily enough he only ranks as the No. 4 catcher in Triple-A with those peak projections. Dingler is still behind Adrian Del Castillo (Diamondbacks), Agustin Ramirez (Marlins by way of Yankees) and Moises Ballesteros (Cubs). What I’m getting at is that the catching position will be solid in fantasy for the next decade.

Another former RoboScout friend, Buddy Kennedy—now of the Phillies—has hit three doubles and two home runs over his last four games and has a 190 wRC+ over his last 165 plate appearances. He has always been a hit-over-power minor leaguer, but the Phillies appear to have unlocked something since acquiring him from the Tigers. Kennedy’s .295 ISO with Triple-A Lehigh Valley is the highest of his minor league career at any level. It’s even higher than his 17-homer season in Double-A in 2021. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott block Kennedy on the Phillies’ depth chart, but RoboScout is happy to see that the 25-year-old rejuvenated since joining the Phillies organization.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

RankNameTeamRoboRoboCast
1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9192
3David FestaMIN8881
4Will WarrenNYY7981
5Jack LeiterTEX7780
6Tylor MegillNYM8079
7Chayce McDermottBAL7777
8Carson SpiersCIN7577
9Tobias MyersMIL7377
10Yilber DiazARI7976
11Cade PovichBAL8475
12Chad PatrickMIL7575
13Elieser HernandezLAD7375
14Braxton AshcraftPIT7575
15Louie VarlandMIN7573
16Alek ManoahTOR7573
17Quinn PriesterPIT8372
18Slade CecconiARI7772
19Cristian MenaARI7972
20AJ Smith-ShawverATL7071
21Albert SuarezBAL7471
22Matt ManningDET6770
23Reid DetmersLAA8370
24Osvaldo BidoOAK7068
25Josh WinckowskiBOS6868

We mentioned a few weeks ago that Will Warren (Yankees) was doing his best to turn his season around after a forgettable early going. And now the 25-year-old has pushed himself into the top five. Although the 1.40 WHIP and 6.11 ERA doesn’t look particularly compelling, his xFIP is actually 3.93 with a 27% strikeout rate and his high ranking is quite representative of the fact that Triple-A pitching after Paul Skenes (Pirates) and Christian Scott (Mets) isn’t particularly intimidating, contributing to the perception that the jump for Triple-A hitters to the major leagues seems higher than ever.

Still, Warren’s 25% strikeout-minus-walk rate since June 3 is the fourth-highest by a starting pitcher. Considering he has averaged over five innings per start during that time, it’s quite probable the Yankees will call him up this season. Expect him to make a difference in redraft leagues, where he’s one of the last non-injury pitchers to have that potential.

Happy bidding!

The post RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On July 28, 2024 appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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Fantasy Podcast: Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon & An Early First-Year Player Draft Breakdown https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-travis-bazzana-charlie-condon-an-early-first-year-player-draft-breakdown/ https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/fantasy-podcast-travis-bazzana-charlie-condon-an-early-first-year-player-draft-breakdown/#respond Tue, 23 Jul 2024 11:45:34 +0000 https://www.baseballamerica.com/?p=1457837 Geoff Pontes & Dylan White hop back on the mic for a new fantasy baseball podcast breaking down the most exciting first-year players.

The post Fantasy Podcast: Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon & An Early First-Year Player Draft Breakdown appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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After a few weeks away, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White are back with our first fantasy baseball podcast of the second half. We start off with a breakdown of two former Cy Young winners returning to the field in Clayton Kershaw and Robbie Ray before discussing the Ozzie Albies injury fallout and Nacho Alvarez’s call-up.

In the second half of the show, we talk big-time first year players like Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, Chase Burns and JJ Wetherholt as we preview the potential first ten picks in this year’s FYPD rankings.

That’s over a full hour of dynasty talk this week, folks. Enjoy!

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The post Fantasy Podcast: Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon & An Early First-Year Player Draft Breakdown appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

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