It’s yet another data point that shows just how special the 2023 draft is shaping up to be. No other draft from the 21st century has seen this many draftees reach the majors so quickly.

Six first rounders have already played in the majors: Paul Skenes, (No. 1 pick), Dylan Crews (No. 2), Wyatt Langford (No. 4), Jacob Wilson (No. 6), Nolan Schanuel (No. 11), Hurston Waldrep (No. 24) and third-round pick Jake Bloss.

The last time that eight or more draftees reached the majors by the end of the following season was the 1989 draft when 10 draftees played in the majors in 1990, including Frank Thomas, John Olerud and Ben McDonald.

With a full month of games to go, the 1,077 combined MLB plate appearances from 2023 position players is the most from any draft class since 1985 and already the eighth most all-time. It has already topped the 2005 draft, which had held the 21st century record with 863 thanks to Ryan Zimmerman and Troy Tulowitzki. With just 103 more plate appearances, the 2023 draft will leap into the top five.

To put things into even more perspective, the more than 1,000 plate appearances by 2023 MLB draftees is more than the 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018 or 2019 drafts saw from position players in their draft year, their following season and the season after that.

The 1985 draft saw Barry Bonds, Barry Larkin, Pete Incaviglia, Rafael Palmeiro and Will Clark all see significant playing time as hitters, with seven players in all combining for 1,884 plate appearances. That same year also saw 403 innings pitched by draftees, primarily by Bobby Witt, Bruce Ruffin and Chuck Finley.

The 1973 draft set the record for most plate appearances by the end of the following year. Dave Winfield, Robin Yount, Jim Sundberg, Luis Gomez and Steve Swisher led the way as 11 players combined for 2,371 PAs.

It is notable that drafts in which players earn MLB playing time quickly are often the most star-studded classes. The 1973 draft tops the plate appearance chart and is led by a pair of Hall of Famers in Winfield and Yount. The 1970 draft didn’t have any Hall of Famers among its notable debutantes, but the third-place 1985 draft has Larkin to go with Bonds, who is an all-timer, even if he isn’t officially in the Hall of Fame. Ozzie Smith and Paul Molitor led the fourth-ranked 1977 draft.

Currently, the 122 innings so far pitched be 2023 draftees ranks 37th all-time and is 11th most in the 21st century.

Here’s a look at how many innings and at-bats each draft produced in the year following the draft, as well as notable players who debuted within the following season:

The post With Early MLB Debuts From Paul Skenes & Others, The 2023 Draft Class Is Already Setting Records appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Until the current CBA, teams were allowed to expand up to 40 players on the MLB roster for September, which meant waves of minor leaguers arriving to serve as defensive replacements, pinch hitters, pinch runners, extra bullpen arms and spot starters. Now, it’s a much more modest expansion.

Whether it’s because of that or just the different desires of teams, many logical Sept. 1 callup candidates have already gotten the call to the majors. Dylan Crews, Niko Kavadas, Rece Hinds, Bryan Ramos, Jacob Lopez and Tyler Gentry have all been called up this week.

Here’s our look at one player for each organization we’d love to see get a call to the majors when rosters expand.

The post One September Callup We Hope To See For Every MLB Team appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Dylan Crews Is A Big Leaguer. This Is A Big Deal Right?

Absolutely. The No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft is already arriving in the majors. This means the first, second, fourth and sixth picks from the 2023 draft are already big leaguers. Only two of the top 10 picks from the 2022 draft have reached the majors so far.

Crews ranks No. 4 on the current Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list. That Top 10 is thinner than normal thanks to recent graduations, but he ranks among the best prospects in the minors.

Crews’ arrival is also notable because it is a further big step in the Nationals’ rebuild. With the 22-year-old Crews in the lineup, the Nationals now have 21-year-old outfielder James Wood, 23-year-old shortstop CJ Abrams. 24-year-old second baseman Luis Garcia and 25-year-old catcher Keibert Ruiz. Third baseman Brady House is in Triple-A as well, so the Nats’ youth movement is well on the way.

That’s vital for a team that will finish this year with a fifth-straight losing record. The Nationals’ last winning record came in 2019, the year they won the World Series.

So How Would You Describe His 2024 MiLB Season?

It’s been OK. Crews has been a slightly above-average hitter in two stops. He has yet to have a stretch of dominance like he showed throughout his college career. Crews hit .311 with five home runs in his first month of pro ball (August 2023) when he largely played at Low-A Fredericksburg. He has yet to hit .300 in any month since, and his four home runs this month is his second highest monthly total as a pro.

Crews hit .273/.343/.446 at Double-A Harrisburg and .265/.340/.455 at Triple-A Rochester.

That was significantly above the average production for the Eastern League (.238/.321/.374) and slightly better than the average hitter in the International League (.255/.345/.421).

There are a significant number of prospects who are Crews’ age or younger who have had better seasons in the upper minors. Fellow 2023 draftees Kristian Campbell, Matt Shaw, Kyle Teel and Luke Keaschall all had better seasons in Double-A or above, and Crews’ season also was topped by younger players like 20-year-old outfielder Roman Anthony, 20-year-old catcher Samuel Basallo and 21-year-old shortstop Carson Williams.

What Does The Analytical Data Say About Crews?

In many ways, Crews isn’t terribly different from the hitter we watched at LSU for three outstanding seasons. When comparing his exit velocity data year over year, there’s been no substantial drop-off in where he ranks in terms of percentiles. Crews’ 109.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity with LSU in 2023 ranked at the 99th percentile of NCAA Division I hitters. In 2024, Crews 106.2 mph 90th percentile EV ranks in the 95th percentile among MiLB hitters.

While this is a drop-off, it’s hardly noticeable when you consider the older and more talented hitter pool across all levels of the minor leagues. The 3.5 mph drop is also anticipated when moving from a metal bat to the standard wood bat in the professional game. Crews’ max exit velocity in 2024 is actually up from his 2023 max EV with LSU. In 2023, Crews max EV of 112.8 mph ranked in the 91st percentile among college hitters, while his 113.8 mph ranks in the 97th percentile this season. 

Looking at other numbers, his zone-miss rate is nearly identical with only a .5% drop between 2023 and 2024. While Crews has actually improved his flyball rate and airpull% (percentage of fly balls pulled), his launch angle is steeper and his groundball rate is lower as a professional. Crews was criticized for his higher ground ball rate and lack of pull-side pop entering pro ball. He has made some adjustments to improve that.

That so far has come with a tradeoff of a much more aggressive approach. Known for his discerning eye, and elite on-base ability, Crews has seen his walk rate drop from 20.6% in 2023 at LSU to 8% across all levels in 2024 as a pro.

Crews’ swing rate has jumped from 36.2% at LSU to a 49.5% swing rate as a professional in 2024. He was one of the most patient hitters in college baseball with a 2023 swing rate that ranked in the seventh percentile among D-I hitters. In pro ball this year, he ranks in the 75th percentile in swing rate.

This has led to an increase in chase rate and has affected Crews’ overall expected production. There’s a lot to like under the hood of Crews’ profile, including power and contact, but are his more aggressive swing decisions behind his drop in production as a professional? Could those losses in on-base skills return in the coming years?  

What Are Reasonable Expectations For Crews?

This gives him a chance to get acclimated to the major leagues in a relatively low-pressure environment. His bat-to-ball skills and power should play. Even if he finds himself a little over his head, it provides an offseason to-do list to prepare for 2025.

The post Dylan Crews Debut: Expectations For Top Nationals Prospect appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

It’s true in 2024, but it was just as true in 1916.

Now, there are probably fewer postgame sing-alongs and hopefully less “murder in their hearts” in 2024 than was true in the 1890s. But the same “back in my day” mentality that was true in 1916 is a tempting siren’s song in 2024, as well.

If you’re not playing Major League Baseball in 2024, it’s understandably difficult to fathom just how hard the game is for hitters these days. Current players and coaches are happy to discuss this if you ask them. Pitchers are nastier. Weaknesses are exposed more quickly. And just when you think you have a pitcher figured out, the next time you step to the plate, he’s been replaced by a reliever who throws 98 mph.

Here’s a simple example we can show from relatively recent history that illustrates just how tough it has become using two of the best hitters the game has ever seen.

From 2009-2012, Miguel Cabrera was arguably the best hitter in baseball. He hit .332/.414/.590 over those four seasons and won two batting titles. Cabrera averaged 36 home runs a year, won an MVP award and never finished worse than fifth in an MVP race over those four years.

In 2021-2024, Aaron Judge has arguably been the best hitter in baseball. He’s hitting .301/.417/.641 over this current four-year stretch. Judge has averaged 46 home runs a season during that time. He’s won an MVP award and may win a second this year.

Judge is a more of a slugger, while Cabrera was a bit more of a pure hitter. There’s never a perfect apples-to-apples comparison, but it’s fair to say that 2009-2012 Cabera and 2021-2024 Judge rank among the best and most feared hitters of their eras. Considering they put up similar offensive production over these four-year stretches, you could say these are two Hall of Famers being studied in the middle of the peaks of their careers.

Using Statcast data from the wonderful Baseball Savant Website, we can comfortably show just how much tougher Judge’s job has been over the past four years than Cabrera’s was just a generation before.

Let’s start with a very simple comparison: Both Cabrera and Judge hitters who destroy fastballs. Aaron Judge is hitting .347/.444/.759 against four-seam fastballs over his four-year stretch, while Cabrera hit .333/.419/.593 against four-seamers during his four years being studied.

But when it comes to fastball velocity, Judge has faced a significantly tougher test.

Almost 29% of the four-seam fastballs Cabrera saw from 2009-2012 were 90 mph or less. Only 6% of the four-seamers Judge has seen have been 90 mph or less.

On the other end of the spectrum, roughly 8% of the four-seamers Cabrera saw were 97+ mph. For Judge, it’s more than 20% of the four-seamers he’s seeing.

So, Judge has faced significantly higher velocity fastballs than Cabrera did. This is all on the exact same scale, so there are no discrepancies in radar gun measurements to explain the difference. Pitchers just throw a lot harder in 2021-2024 than they did in 2009-2012.

Cabrera hit .414/.480/.640 when he saw a 90 mph or softer fastball. Judge wasn’t as good (.286/.444/.571) against those soft heaters, but he also only saw 91 pitches that fit that category. Cabrera saw 553.

How Cabrera And Judge Fare Versus Different Fastball Velocities

Adding to Judge’s degree of difficult is how many fewer fastballs he sees. Both of these hitters are ones that pitchers would have every incentive to avoid or “ramp up” to give them their best stuff. But because of how teams approach pitching differently in 2024, Judge sees fastballs only 43% of the time (combining four-seamers and sinkers). Cabrera saw fastballs 56% of the time. Judge sees cutters, sliders or sweepers 33% of the time. Cabrera saw them 22% of the time.

This is a key point that may get overlooked. Aaron Judge looks at four-seam fastballs like many of us look at Double Stuff Oreos. His eyes get big and he gets ready to feast. Over the past four seasons, Judge hits a home run once every 39 pitches when he sees four-seam fastballs.

That’s not a typo. That’s not plate appearances or at-bats, it’s once every 39 four-seam fastballs he sees, he jogs around the bases. With sinkers, Judge homers once every 47 pitches.

But in the 2020s, pitchers and opposing teams are well aware of this fact, so Judge doesn’t get all that many fastballs to crush.

In 2009-2012, teams threw four-seam fastballs 33.7% of the time, and sinkers another 23.7% of the time. In 2021-2024 the overall four-seam rate is 33.2% and the sinker rate is 15.4%. Even as one of the best hitters in baseball at the time, Cabrera’s fastball rates were right in line with the averages: 32% four-seam fastballs and 24.2% sinkers.

Judge’s numbers aren’t close to that. He’s seen a 27.1% four-seam rate and a 16% sinker rate. Even if he still faced today’s velocity, if you project Judge to get Cabrera’s higher fastball rates (and lower slider rates), he’d project to have another 11 home runs from 2021-2024 (so far). Judge would project to hit another 12 home runs against four-seamers and another 16 against sinkers, but he would also never see sweepers, which he’d destroyed to the tune of one home run every 46 pitches.

This makes hitter tougher for most hitters. Hitters are trying to get fastballs in fastball counts. Nowadays, pitchers are much less likely to oblige. This isn’t an Aaron Judge-specific change. Judge’s 43% fastball rate (sinkers and four-seamers) is less than any hitter from the 2009-2012 timeframe. From 2009-2012, Ryan Howard’s 45.3% fastball rate was the lowest fastball rate in baseball. Only nine MLB hitters with 2,000 or more pitches seen saw fewer than 50% fastballs (sinkers and four-seamers).

Judge’s 43% fastball rate now ranks 35th fewest in the majors (2021-2024). Oneil Cruz sees fastballs only 38.6% of the time. There have been 306 hitters (with 2,000 or more pitches seen) who are seeing fastballs less than 50% of the time in 2021-2024.

Here’s a look at how each of these hitters fared versus the different pitches they saw. Judge doesn’t get the intentional ball category because nowadays that’s been replaced by pointing to first base.

Miguel Cabrera’s Pitches Faced (2009-2012)

Aaron Judge’s Pitches Faced (2021-2024)

There are other differences, as well.

In the late 2000s/early 2010s, managers were more likely to let a starting pitcher face a batter a third or fourth time. Nowadays, teams are well aware that every time a batter faces a pitcher again in the same game, the advantage steadily shifts to the batter. The third and fourth time through the order penalty is something that has led teams to emphasize reliever usage.

Baseball Reference’s Splits data shows that for Cabrera, 22.4% of his plate appearances came against a pitcher seeing him for a third or fourth time in a game. He punished teams foolish enough to do that, as he hit .359/.437/.670 in those situations. Of the 146 home runs he hit in that four-year span, 36 (24.6%) came when pitchers were facing him a third or fourth time in a game. Cabrera had 64 plate appearances where he faced a pitcher a fourth time in a game. He hit .404/.500/.577 in those situations.

Nowadays, the sight of Judge in the on-deck circle is often enough of an incentive to send a manager scurrying to the mound to bring in a reliever. Judge has only had 16.6% of his plate appearances come when seeing a pitcher for a third or fourth time. He’s hit 23 of his 184 home runs (12.5%) in those situations. He’s hitting .274/.414/.564 when facing a pitcher a third or fourth time. Judge had only had seven plate appearances in the past four years where he saw a pitcher a fourth time in a game. It has yet to happen in 2024.

As you would expect, that also means that Judge has faced a greater number of pitchers. Cabrera faced 468 different pitchers between 2009-2012. Judge has so far faced 609 different pitchers.

There’s one other area to examine. Were pitchers in 2009-2012 better with their command and control, able to paint the corners better than they do against Judge? The data says the pitches they have seen are rather similar.

Judge and Cabrera are both hitters who destroyed pitchers who caught too much of the plate. Cabrera hit .432/.421/.817 on pitches over the “heart of the zone” as measured by the Statcast pitch zones. Judge is hitting .410/.409/.967 on pitches in the heart of the zone. Statcast measures pitches as in the heart of the zone, on the shadow of the zone (which is the very edges of the strike zone), the chase zone (which is just off the strike zone) or the waste zone (which is so far out of the zone that hitters rarely swing).

If you remove intentional walk pitches (since Cabrera saw 306 intentional walk pitches and Judge has seen zero), Cabrera’s heart of the zone rate is 22.9% while Judge’s is 24.0%. So Cabrera did see fewer pitches in the hitters’ best zones. But Judge also saw slightly more pitches on the very edge of the strike zone. Cabrera’s shadow area rate is 41.3% while Judge’s is 41.8%. Both saw an identical rate of pitches in the chase zone (24.2%). Cabrera’s waste rate is 10.8% while Judge’s is 9.7%. Cabrera saw fewer pitches over the heart of the plate, but he also saw more pitches that were clearly balls out of the hand, while Judge saw more pitches on the edge of the strike zone. All in all, it seems to be very similar pitch location rates for both batters.

None of this is meant to denigrate what Cabrera did in 2009-2012. During that stretch, he was one of the best hitters the game has seen in the 21st century. But whether you’re looking at pitch velocity, pitch selection or the third time through the order penalty, when you consider how the game keeps getting tougher for hitters, what Aaron Judge is doing is remarkable.

The post Why Is Hitting So Hard In MLB Nowadays? appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

The first group’s argument can be summarized as follows: Velocity is vitally important, and pitchers who want to have MLB success are wise to push to throw as hard as they can.

And the second group’s argument: The never-ending chase for velocity is likely to blame for the ever-increasing rate of arm injuries, something that wasn’t as much of an issue when pitchers didn’t throw as hard.

Both sides have some valid points, and the argument isn’t going away any time soon. The charts we’ve compiled below may help to explain why the chase for velocity isn’t likely to disappear, even if it may increase injury risks.

What Are The Average Fastball Velocities Of Top MLB Prospects?

Earlier this year, Baseball America ranked the average fastball speeds of every pitching prospect in the Top 100.

SEE THE LIST

Specifically, we’re using the excellent Baseball Savant tool to look at how MLB hitters have fared against four-seam fastballs divided into different velocity buckets so far in 2024. What we’re not looking at is how well each pitch is located, what the count was or how well the pitch moved. We’re only separating these pitches out by velocity.

As you may note below, the harder an MLB pitcher throws, the more effective his four-seam fastball is. It’s a relatively linear relationship. Overall, MLB hitters are hitting .244/.311/.401 with a 25.1% whiff rate this year, and the average velocity of a four-seam fastball is 94.2 mph. Hitters like to see fastballs, so against those four-seamers, MLB hitters are slashing better: .246/.334/.424 with a 21.7% whiff rate.

If a pitcher throws at or below the league-average four-seam fastball velocity, on average, they are giving up above-average production on those four-seamers. If they throw 95+ mph (which is above MLB average velocity), they are giving up below-average production on four-seam fastballs. And if they throw 100+ mph, hitters dread seeing their fastball.

Major League Four-Seam Data

We can do the same for Triple-A pitchers’ four-seam fastballs in 2024.

Once again, we see a similar relationship: If you throw harder, you have more success. The only difference is we didn’t include 101-102 mph fastballs for Triple-A, as there have been less than a hundred thrown all season (pitchers who throw 102 mph don’t hang out in Triple-A very long). As one might expect, there was a much more statistically-robust total of 435 fastballs thrown at 101-102 mph for the major leagues.

Triple-A Four-Seam Data

Again, this is only four-seam fastballs. But what if we looked at how hard pitchers threw their slider? We’re again not focused on how the pitches move, so we’re looking at all types of sliders: traditional, sweepers, gyro and all else.

In case that leads you another question, here’s the same breakdown for four-seam fastballs from MLB in 2009. MLB hitters showed similar degradations in production and increases in whiff rates as velocity climbed, and similar production against each fastball velocity bucket. But in 2009, only 6% of four-seam fastballs were 97+ mph. Now 17% of them are 97+ mph, so there are a lot more at-bats taking place in the higher ranges of these buckets.

Major League Slider Data

The results aren’t as linear as the fastball velocity buckets, but other than 85-86 mph pitches having better results than 87-88 mph, there still is a definite improvement in results as velocity increases and swing-and-miss rates climb.

With changeups, however, there is no clear relationship between velocity and success. Changeups rely on movement, deception and in many cases, a velocity separation from a pitcher’s fastball. So, a pitcher who throws a hard changeup that lacks deception may not be benefiting from that velocity.

As you can see below, by not controlling for anything other than velocity, there does not seem to be any significant relationship between changeup velocity and the pitch’s effectiveness.

Major League Changeup Data

So what does it all mean?

Throwing harder, especially when it comes to fastballs, leads to more success for MLB pitchers. If you throw harder, hitters have less time to react, and that makes a hitters’ job tougher. It sounds simple, because it is.

But it’s a simple truth that many baseball fans seem to struggle to accept.

The post Why Do MLB Pitchers Focus So Much On Velocity? How Fastball Data Explains Baseball’s Growing Search For Speed appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

The top 16 finishers from the 2023 World Baseball Classic have automatic berths in the 2026 WBC. The other four spots will be determined through qualifier tournaments.

First Round Pool Play

(Two Two From Each Pool Advance)

Pool A (San Juan, Puerto Rico) March 6-11, 2026

Puerto Rico
Cuba
Canada
Panama
Qualifier

Pool B (Houston, Texas) March 6-11, 2026

United States
Mexico
Italy
Great Britain
Qualifier

Pool C (Tokyo, Japan) March 5-10, 2026

Japan
Australia
Korea
Czech Republic
Qualifier

Pool D (Miami, Fla.) March 6-11, 2026

Venezuela
Dominican Republic
Netherlands
Israel
Qualifier

Quarterfinal Round

Pool A Vs. Pool B (Houston, Texas) March 14, 2026

Pool A Runner-Up vs. Pool B Winner
Pool A Winner vs. Pool B Runner-Up

Pool C vs. Pool D (Miami, Fla.) March 14, 2026

Pool C Runner-Up vs. Pool D Winner
Pool C Winner vs. Pool D Runner-Up

Semifinals (Miami, Fla.)

March 15, 2026: Pairings to be determined
March 16, 2026: Pairings to be determined

Championship (Miami, Fla.)

March 17, 2026: Winners of semifinal games

The post 2026 World Baseball Classic Schedule, Pools & Venues appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Tyler Fitzgerald, SS/OF, Giants

The 26-year-old has burst onto the scene in the second half of 2024, swatting 12 homers and swiping seven bases in 28 games since the All-Star break. During this stretch, Fitzgerald ranks top 10 in batting average, top 20 in OBP and top six in slugging percentage. Only Jake Burger has hit more home runs than Fitzgerald over that time, while only American League MVP favorites Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. have accrued more fWAR.

From July 9th (pre-All-Star break) through July 27th, Fitzgerald hit a memorable eight homers in just 10 games played, becoming the first Giants player to do so since Barry Bonds in 2004:

Normally, this would be the end of the story for a player who peaked at No. 28 in the Giants’ 2020 organization prospect rankings.

However, since that homer run tear, Fitzgerald is still slashing .304/.341/.557 with five homers and seven steals in 19 games. This “regression” suggests he wasn’t just a two-week wonder. Which begs the question: How is Fitzgerald doing this?

A quick look at Fitzgerald’s Baseball Savant page shows that he has pulled most of his home runs.

Among hitters with at least 50 fly balls this season, Fitzgerald ranks t-11th in pull rate at 40%. While not quite at Isaac Paredes’ 45% threshold this year, Fitzgerald is surrounded by pull-happy names such as Adam Duvall, Rhys Hoskins and Anthony Santander.

Pulling fly balls is one way to outperform your expected stats. Among players with at least 100 balls in play, nobody has a larger difference between their xwOBA and their actual wOBA than Fitzgerald. However, the other two players inside the top 80 of the differential leaderboard who have at least a .400 wOBA are good company: Royce Lewis and Rafael Devers.

This analysis has mostly described how Fitzgerlad got to this point. It remains to be seen how pitchers begin adjusting and if the rookie can adjust back. The Giants are counting on him to do so. After playing sparingly to begin the summer, Fitzgerald has started 28 straight games entering this week. He’s done so while operating as the team’s everyday shortstop, a position San Francisco desperately needs in a post-Brandon Crawford era. Fitzgerald’s plus defense at the position has boosted his WAR total, potentially forcing his way into the National League Rookie of the Year race.

James Wood, OF, Nationals

There’s going to be a lot of James Wood hype entering the 2025 Major League Baseball season.

Since he debuted too late to join the NL ROY discussion, and the Nationals are no longer competing for a postseason spot, the conversation around Wood is relatively muted compared to what it will be by spring training next year.

Through 42 big league games entering Monday, the 21-year-old is slashing .284/.373/.458 (135 wRC+) with five homers and six steals. He’s been even better lately, posting a 196 wRC+ during August, which ranks eighth among all MLB hitters. After posting a 33% strikeout rate in July, he’s down to 26% this month to go along with an improved walk rate.

The key has been a massive reduction in chasing outside the zone:

While a .459 BABIP during the month of August isn’t sustainable, it’s encouraging to see such quick adjustments from a hitter his age.

Something Wood needs to continue working on is lifting the ball. His 56% ground ball rate is the seventh-highest in the majors among players with at least 170 plate appearances.

Somewhat troublingly, it took until Sunday for him to finally pull a fly ball. Still, given his age and prospect pedigree, Wood’s to-date success might also be considered even more impressive, given that he has yet to optimize his batted balls.

Additional comfort lies in the fact that, among all major league hitters with 100 or more balls in play, Wood’s average exit velocity ranks fifth:

Hitting the ball hard on the ground can help lead to an inflated BABIP, so unless Wood starts pulling in the air at an extreme rate, there’s a chance this stretch could be the high-water mark of his rookie campaign.

Even with only modest improvement in his pulled fly ball rate, Wood can finish strong by continuing his swing decision improvement. If he checks those boxes, he’ll be an easy 22-year-old breakout pick entering spring training.

Zach Neto, SS, Angels

While the Angels trudge through another summer without Mike Trout, there have at least been a few bright spots between Neto and Logan O’Hoppe.

Neto debuted in April of last year after spending just 44 games in the minors (and none at Triple-A). The results were about what one would expect for a young hitter acclimating to the majors: .225/.308/.377 with nine homers and five steals across 84 games.

In 2024, Neto started slowly through his first 101 PAs, posting a 76 wRC+ without signaling much improvement. Since then, he has 16 homers, 18 stolen bases and a greatly-reduced K% to go along with a 133 wRC+. Rotisserie fantasy managers have appreciated the power-speed contributions, though the Angels must also be quite happy with his development.

Interestingly, Neto’s swing decisions and batted-ball profile haven’t undergone major overhauls since 2023. Instead, his slash line improvements stem from better results on contact: 357 xwOBAcon in 2023 vs. .393 in 2024

Perhaps those numbers are the result of improving against a specific pitch. Last season, Neto had a negative run value against sliders. Thus far in 2024, only two other qualified hitters have been as productive against sliders, per Baseball Savant:

Neto’s still working on his all-around game, with a 19th percentile Outs Above Average and seven caught stealing attempts. If he’s able to get better in those areas to begin 2025, we could be witnessing the seeds of an All-Star campaign.`

The post Three Promising Young MLB Hitters To Watch In The Final Month Of The Season appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

• Evaluating Speed (4:00)
• 60 Yard Dash and Home to First (7:00)
• Top Speed and it’s benefits (16:00)
• X Axis of force velocity curve (27:00)
• Top speed atrophies as players age (35:00)
• The Nolan Arenado example (44:00)
• What accelerates atrophy? (49:00)
• Hit Tool Players vs. Size, Athleticism and Tools (52:00)
• Colt Emerson vs. Walker Martin (63:00)
• The Brent Rooker Example (67:00)

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The post 90th Percentile: How Athleticism And Speed Are Evaluated In Top MLB Prospects appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Drew • 61 WAR

1997: J.D. Drew, OF, No. 2
2004: Stephen Drew, SS, No. 15

Both Drews starred at Florida State and had lengthy MLB careers, making them the most productive first-round brothers. While J.D. infamously did not sign with the Phillies in 1997, he was the fifth overall pick the following year. His .384 OBP is one of the highest marks of the past 25 years, and he contributed steady power and defense as a corner outfielder. Stephen was a standout defender who had a few good years with the bat. Their brother Tim also was a first-rounder, drafted 28th overall in 1997 as a high school righthander.

Upton • 49 WAR

2002: B.J. Upton, SS, No. 2
2005: Justin Upton, SS, No. 1

Both Uptons signed out of high school in Chesapeake, Va. B.J. was a graceful center fielder who stole 300 bases with good power. Four-time all-star Justin was a slugging corner outfielder who hit 325 home runs. They were teammates for three seasons with the Padres and Braves.

Benes • 33 WAR

1988: Andy Benes, RHP, No. 1
1993: Alan Benes, RHP, No. 16

Former Evansville standout Andy was the preeminent 1-1 college ace before David Price, Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole came along. He won 155 games in 14 seasons, made an all-star team and finished top five for a Cy Young Award twice. Younger brother Alan had an injury-marred, eight-year MLB career. The Benes brothers were teammates for three seasons with the Cardinals.

Young • 15 WAR

1991: Dmitri Young, 3B, No. 4
2003: Delmon Young, OF, No. 1

Dmitri made a couple of all-star teams in 13 MLB seasons. Delmon shined brighter as a prospect—No. 1 overall in 2006—but was done as a regular by his mid 20s and out of MLB before turning 30. Note that Dmitri and Delmon’s nephew, Quentin, is also one of the top prospects in the 2025 draft.

Weeks • 13 WAR

2003: Rickie Weeks, 2B, No. 2
2008: Jemile Weeks, 2B, No. 12

Rickie set the Division I standard with a .473 career average at Southern. With the Brewers, he contributed power, speed and walks to three playoff teams. Hard hands held him back defensively at second base. Jemile was a stronger defender but didn’t hit enough to hold a regular job.

Other Prominent First-Round Brother tandems

2019: Josh Jung, 3B, No. 8
2022: Jace Jung, 2B, No. 12

1998: Jeff Weaver, RHP, No. 14
2004: Jered Weaver, RHP, No. 12

2012: Josh Naylor, 1B, No. 12
2015: Bo Naylor, C, No. 29

The post Could The Holliday Brothers Soon Join These First-Round Duos? appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.

Be sure to listen to previous organizational breakdowns here:

• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East
• NL Central

(3:10) Arizona Diamondbacks
(17:30) Colorado Rockies
(31:00) Los Angeles Dodgers
(49:30) San Diego Padres
(60:00) San Francisco Giants

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The post Assessing The State Of Every NL West Organization appeared first on College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects - Baseball America.